Author: John

Visalia’s financial bottom line stays strong despite lower sales tax revenue

Annual surplus grows to almost $16 million

The City of Visalia reported lower growth in sales tax revenue in 2023 the council heard this week in a report. Sales tax revenue to the city last year climbed only 2% from the year before compared to double digit increases of over $10 million in each of the past two years, what was about a 16% jump in sales tax revenue each year.

City finance chief Rene Nagel says 2023 fiscal year sales tax revenue reached $84.6 million compared to $82.1 million in 2022 and $70.9 million in 2021 (see chart)

Proposed civic center would be paid for in cash

The city enjoyed a sales tax boom in the past two reports despite the fact these were the years when COVID arguably shut down the economy with the results coming in as a big surprise to the city – including staff.

Now in 2023 things slowed down here and across California with some area cities reporting red ink in their general funds.

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Despite slower growth in Visalia sales tax income, the top category in the city’s general fund, has roughly tripled since 2014 from $28.8 million. Even more impressive is the fact that total revenue from all sources in 2023 was $177.8 million including property tax, grant funding, franchise fees and TOT bed tax monies. Total revenue is up from $163 million in 2022 and that is a jump of an impressive $15.8 million.

The city report says this is the tenth consecutive year that the General Fund has ended the year with a surplus, with the General Fund’s fund balance (including the emergency reserve) at $55.4 million at fiscal year-end, last June.

So the slowdown in sales tax monies should not hurt the city’s budget picture again this year.” We are in really good shape” says Visalia Mayor Brian Poochigian. He says the slowdown in sales tax to 2% is probably” the new normal.”

The report says “contributing to the growth was a continued high inflation rate. Although we saw the California consumer price index come down to 3.1% as of June 2023, the average rate for the fiscal year stood at an estimated 5.52%. The main areas of the growth in Sales Tax for Visalia were in General Retail (department stores, apparel stores) which grew $.5 million and Food Products (restaurants, food markets, liquor stores) which grew $.3 million.”

Property Tax continued its growth trend increasing 7% as existing house sales, new development, and property values increased in Visalia.

Travel Down

Travel to the area saw a slight downturn in fiscal year 2022-23 as Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) revenue had a decrease of 1% as compared to last year possibly due to less disposable income available to consumers.

Franchise Fee revenue increased 17% in fiscal year 2022-23 due to increases in gas and electric revenue as the City continued to have new development as well as the utility companies increased fees to their customers. Business License revenue increased 13% when compared to last year as new businesses have been added and the continued growth in sales as indicated by growth in sales tax.

Also of note,Visalia has 13,126 licensed businesses operating in the City, a net increase of 173 as compared to last year. These businesses include private manufacturing, technology research, retail and service businesses, educational services, healthcare and social assistance, consulting, arts and entertainment, hospitality services, along with non-profit institutions.

Record year

The nearly $16 million dollar jump in total revenue is even more impressive when we look at revenue gain for the past two big sales tax years increasing $11.6 million and $12.7 million making 2023 a record year. Visalia’s annual revenue has doubled since 2014.

The surplus last year allowed the City Council to announce they would be able to pay for the planned new Civic Center out of cash reserves built up by years of positive revenue. That includes the 2023 year when the city moved $10 million from the surplus into the $107 million Civic Center project, now in the final planning stages.

Mayor Poochigian says being able to pay for the civic center with savings, has been a 30 year effort involving many city council members.

Even with higher revenue, the city has also had higher expenses says the report.

“The General Fund ended the 22/23 year with a change in fund balance and surplus of $15.85 million. Contributing to the surplus was not only the growth in the main General Fund revenue categories, but also in uses of money and property (interest income) which was up $1.7 million as compared to last year as not only were interest rates up this fiscal year but there was a significant negative adjustment to the fair market value on investments held by the City last fiscal year which had decreased interest income. Additionally, fees and fines (vehicle, parking, and local ordinance violations) were up by $0.1 million.”

“However, the City did have a decrease in charges for services (engineering fees) of $1.4 million as development activity was down for the year and miscellaneous revenue by $0.8 million.

Employee expense

Offsetting the large revenue growth this fiscal year, total expenditures were up $6.6 million compared to last year mainly due to increases in employee compensation of 8%. These increases also affect pension obligations. Additionally, we had increases in most all other costs due to inflation and in capital outlay of $2.3 million as general fund projects, such as the East Regional Park Basin and Lower Kaweah/Mill Creek project.

New staff

The strength of the Visalia economy has allowed the city to not only raise wages, but to hire a new talent to guide the city from nearby communities, including the former city manager of Porterville, John Lollis, now Visalia Assistant City Manager and the former Assistant City Manager of Lemoore Michelle Speer who joined Visalia staff this week as the new Community Services Director. MayorPoochigian adds that these positions are not new, but simply vacant and now filled.

Caption for chart: Revenue stream for Visalia by year
Caption for pic:Visalia’s budget surplus allows city to pay cash for new $107M civic center

Wathen Castanos home builders coming to Visalia

Home builder Watson Castanos plans to construct 477-units north of Riggin near Demaree -a project called Belissa. The well-known builder in the Fresno/Madera market was recently purchased by Trumark Homes.

An annexation of the 58-acre property where they will be building their first Visalia subdivision is slated to be approved at LAFCO in coming weeks.It will be a mix of single family and multifamily units.

When Trumark bought Watson Castanos they also inherited subdivisions on the Central Coast, including Avila Ranch in San Luis Obispo.Originally founded in 1983 and currently led by President and partial owner Josh Peterson since 2014, Wathen Castanos Homes is a leading private homebuilder in California’s Central Valley and Central Coast with a long-established legacy of homebuilding success

The arrival of the busy builder to the Visalia marketplace steps up competition here, already brisk with a number of the nation’s largest builders well established. Recently Fresno-based Bonadelle Homes launched their first subdivision also in the northwest area of Visalia.

Focused on building communities in thriving locations throughout California and Northern Colorado, Trumark Homes has been instrumental in the development of more than 4,000 homes.In 2020, Trumark Homes joined the Daiwa House Group. Daiwa House is Japan’s largest homebuilder and one of the world’s largest public companies. Last fall the acquisition of Wathen Castanos expanded Trumark Homes into new markets, building in San Luis Obispo, Monterey Bay, Clovis, Fresno and Madera. And now Visalia.

The location of the Belissa subdivision is the furthest north toward the St. Johns River in Visalia where homes are approved to be built.The Visalia home building market slowed in 2023, waiting for approval of a half dozen annexations, now completed, bringing in several thousand new parcels into the city limits. This latest annexation adds to the trend. That should mean an uptick in new home construction in town in 2024 if the economy holds.

Morro Bay resident’s fear of wind is overblown

Editorial by John Lindt

Thank you Gail Johnson for your letter to the Estero Bay News regards any danger of Morro Bay being “industrialized.” Opponents of the proposed offshore wind farm as well as the BESS- the battery storage facility, like Gail, are making the argument that both projects will certainly change the small town character of Morro Bay.

My thesis was Morro Bay has had a history of industrial uses like 450-foot smoke stacks next to our little fishing village and locals and tourists alike have enjoyed the atmosphere despite their presence for the past 70 plus years.

Not that I wouldn’t mind if the giant stacks and the old concrete,150-foot tall power plant came tumbling down to make room for all kinds of uses – even back to nature.

Guess what? That’s just what the company who owns the hundred plus acre property is ready to do.

February 20 meeting

In fact, there is a meeting of the city Planning Commission February 20 to go over ideas to master plan this area for the future after the plant and smokestacks come down.

How is that for less industrialization?

Instead, Gail and opponents of both renewable energy projects, while admitting we need them, fear the ””massive”projects will forever change the character of our little fishing village.

Here is what Gail writes in her opposition piece that dredges up assertions she takes as fact about the projects that are overblown or just not correct.

” A major port overhaul is envisioned“ and “our bay would be unrecognizable.”

“Mother’s Beach would be gone” and the iconic”otters will disappear.” The harbor would be dredged to double the depth.

“The view of our harbor would include massive piers, huge ocean going ships, cranes, and platforms that would dominate the skyline.”

Here is the problem. All of this is wild conjecture- hot air over offshore wind. It’s much more likely that the harbor would not be dredged any deeper than it is now and any boat over 200 feet would not be able to navigate in the small harbor. Larger boats could not turn around.

Morro Bay officials say discussion is in the very early stage but the kind of boat that would service the wind farms would periodically carry employees and spare parts – not giant turbines or blades that would be coming on larger ships from Long Beach where the units will be assembled, the port’s authority has announced.The big industrial stuff is happening there!

Remember that the offshore wind project is still 8 to 10 years away and talks are in the early stage.Gail must be a mind reader! But nobody’s going to change the scale of our tiny harbor to anything like Long Beach! And nobody would tolerate the loss of our otter population.It’s just not going to happen.

As for fears that the battery storage plant would ruin the view along the Embarcadero-again I repeat that the view along the Embarcadero is now dominated by a giant mothballed power plant. What would replace it would not even be seen from the visitor’s walking area, the BESS will likely be screened by trees. The buildings that would house the battery storage units are two-story, maybe 30 to 35 ft tall compared to the 150 foot tall mothballed power plant. The bottom line is you won’t even know it’s there.

This is an opportunity not to be feared. As for answers to questions about the BESS project, the city now expects the Draft EIR will get a hearing in front of the planning commission in May or June.

Two big Visalia projects show promise for the future


Four-year school could open by 2026 – New affordable housing complex to serve 200

Architects have filed building plans for the new University Center at COS- what will be a four-year college in Visalia.

The University Center at COS will be located at the corner of Tulare Avenue and Mooney stretching down to Meadow Lane. The first phase of the project that could start late this year would be the demolition of a number of buildings and the abandonment of Shady Lane.Local area taxpayers approved the project in 2022 under Measure C. Now the City of Visalia is reviewing construction plans that will begin with demolition.

The project’s plan includes a mix of classrooms, labs, university support offices, and open study areas. A 220+/- seat lecture is also included off the ground floor main entry lobby. The project is currently designed to be 2 stories tall with a total area of approximately 52,000 GSF. The ground floor footprint is approximately 30,000 GSF.

The complex can support approximately 600-700 students with a supporting staff of around 20-30. Existing parking in the college’s Lot 7 off Tulare will support this added student load. To note, the project does include the demolition of the existing Cedar Building off Meadow on the college campus.

City easements across college property are proposed to be abandoned and reclaimed by the college as follows: 1) Along Shady the entire distance from Meadow to Tulare, 2) On Meadow starting at the alley moving west across the entire campus to Woodland, 3) The Southerly portion of the alley between Mooney and Shady (To the Foster’s Freeze property).

Measure C gives COS the needed funding to open the University Center.The University Center will include not only Fresno State but other California colleges. This gives students a chance to get a college education while staying home.

COS President Dr. Brent Calvin says ”We believe that this University Center will serve the two-county area for decades to come.”

Dr. Calvin says the University Center will be open either in the fall of 2026 or the spring of 2027.

Self-Help plans a major affordable housing project in N Visalia


Self-Help Enterprises has filed preliminary plans to build a new affordable housing complex in North Visalia that could serve 200.

Rancho Colegio is a new affordable rental community being developed by Self-Help Enterprises (SHE) in Visalia. SHE recently completed The Lofts multi-use housing complex in Downtown Visalia that just opened in December to wild acclaim.

Located immediately east of the Visalia Navigation Center (approximately 3700 N Dinuba Blvd), the new proposed project – Rancho Colegio offers one, two and three-bedroom units to serve working families, seniors, individuals and families experiencing homelessness and farmworker households.

The project includes a fully integrated community offering multi-generational housing where seniors and young professionals live together in a service enriched environment. The project includes an approximately 3,000 square foot community center which will provide office space for the full-time on-site manager and resident services staff. The community center will be available for family gatherings and community workshops and will also provide space for the after-school program and a variety of resident services, including STEM programs for youth, computer lab and classes, financial literacy and budgeting, and various health and wellness activities such as Zumba, health screenings and obesity prevention.

Rancho Colegio will serve residents earning 30-60% of area median income and rents will range from $300-$900 per month. This housing opportunity allows families to pay an affordable rent, therefore allowing them to achieve housing stability and the ability to pursue other financial goals such as attending school or saving for homeownership.

Rancho Colegio will be an all-electric project which includes renewable solar PV to off-set 100% of the residential and common area electrical loads, resulting in a project that is also affordable to operate and zero net energy. SHE will also incorporate extensive water conservation measures including highly efficient drip irrigation systems, thoughtful hardscapes, and low water use landscaping.

The Lofts that just opened in Downtown Visalia

More farmland out of production

Should we thank SGMA?

Farmers used to complain that SGMA – the law that limits groundwater pumping in California- would cut food production for the world. Turns out California farmers produce too much fruit and nuts already and over-planting is a key factor in hurting profitability down on the farm. Now some state ag leaders are urging growers to remove trees and vines to try to right size their industry after prices for tree nuts, table and wine grapes, raisins and some tree fruit have plunged in the past few years.

Water or lack of it has been key factor in farm acreage reduction.Then there is increasingly volatile weather impacting production including the flooding of farmland and damage to conveyance infrastructure in these parts. How about the trend to higher temps?

Besides water and weather there are 3 good reasons farmers may want to shrink their footprint aside from the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act.That would be price, price, and price.

Westlands want to repurpose farmland to clean energy production

Nuts: California farmers had been going in the other direction in new plantings – replacing vineyards and tree fruit orchards with tree nuts, especially almonds and pistachios. The bearing acreage of almonds rose from about 300,000 acres in the early 1980s to almost 1.5 million acres today, pistachio acreage rose from 30,000 acres to almost 450,000 acres, and walnut acreage doubled from 200,000 to 400,000 acres.

Revenue per acre peaked in 2013-15 at $8,000 an acre for almonds and pistachios and $6,500 for walnuts. Since then, revenue per acre has fallen by half or more as tree nut production increased faster than demand.USDA reported farmers harvested $0.25 per pound for walnuts,14 percent of the high observed in 2013 ($1.82 per pound). The value of US almonds exceeded $7 billion in 2014-15 but declined to $3.6 billion in 2022-23. Info from Migration News.

Recently California’s total almond acreage dropped now for two years in a row by about 74,000 acres, something that has not happened since at least 1995 according to a report from Land IQ under contract to the Almond Board of California (ABC)

“The latest Land IQ California almond acreage analysis continues to point to a reduction in total acreage driven by fewer new plantings and an increase in orchard removals,” said Richard Waycott, ABC president and CEO. “The 1.37 million bearing acreage in 2023 established a new record, reflecting plantings in 2020 or earlier, but going forward, the analysis points to a lowering of bearing acreage in 2024.”

Orchard removals increased again in 2023 to about 83,000 acres as of Aug. 31, compared with 60,400 acres removed in 2022 and continuing a trend of an increasing pace of removals that started in 2021, says the report.

Stone Fruit: The largest US producer of tree fruit with 13,000 acres of peaches in Fresno and Tulare County, was bought in 2018 by Paine Schwartz Partners and filed for bankruptcy October 13, 2023. 5,400 positions -3400 seasonal farm workers are being lost and it is not clear who will end up with these orchards with spring just around the corner.

Grapes: Allied Grape Growers are urging California growers to take out 50,000 bearing acres of grapes noting that an oversupply is hurting prices.

The publication Farm Progress reports “Jeff Bitter, president of the Fresno-based Allied Grape Growers, warned a wine conference audience recently that nearly 20,000 acres of newly planted grapes are coming online this year, which will add to the glut of fruit.

He recommended that 30,000 acres of older vines be razed in California’s interior regions, including the Central Valley, and another 20,000 acres be removed from the coast, including 5,000 combined in Napa and Sonoma counties. If realized, these removals would result in a net reduction of 30,000 bearing acres, he noted.

But in California, growers are still planting vineyards at a brisk pace. Last year, enough vines were sold by nurseries to plant 19,000 new acres, and plantings of red varieties grew again, Bitter said.

“Quite honestly, we don’t need more red grapes,” he said, adding that removals should occur across varieties. “This is everything, really. We’re not going to just take out one or two varieties and set everything right.”

The industry is planting at the right pace but not removing enough, he said. It’ll likely take several years of pullouts to put supply and demand back into balance, he said.

“The pain doesn’t go away,” he said, “until grapes go away.”

Wine: Brager Beverage Alcohol Consulting says the industry faces tough challenges today related to demand. Here is his list.

-Consumer demand for wine – and alcohol in general is declining.

-Wine remains underdeveloped among consumers of legal drinking age, many of whom are multicultural. Baby boomers and their preceding generation are still important, but will age out.

-Social moderation is on the rise.

-There is intense competition from other alcoholic, non-alcoholic and even cannabis-infused drinks.

-Premiumization is still evident, but not as much as it was during the COVID-19 pandemic.

New purpose for farmland?

Look what’s happening in Westlands Water District. This week the state’s largest water district posted a long range plan that will designate much of the district for renewable energy production by taking more land out of crop production.The Valley Clean Infrastructure Plan (VCIP) provides a blueprint for the development of clean energy facilities and supporting infrastructure with an overall generating and delivery capacity of up to 20,000 MW (10 Diablo Canyons) on approximately 130,000 acres of repurposed farmland.

The plan goes from the Avenal Cutoff north to Nees, past Mendota along I-5, maybe a 60-mile stretch.It does not include all the solar activity south of Avenal Cutoff in Kings county.

The District’s main objectives for VCIP are to repurpose drainage-impaired and other agricultural land for clean energy generation in order to promote enhanced agricultural productivity within the District by: 1) constructively addressing the chronic shortage of surface water deliveries by facilitating redirection of scarce surface water allocations to other productive agricultural land; 2) facilitating SGMA implementation by contributing to the re-allocation of groundwater for irrigation on other productive agricultural land and mitigating risk of subsidence along the San Luis Canal/California Aqueduct; which in combination will result in increased reliability and resilience of agricultural water supply in the Westside Subbasin; and 3) providing for orderly development and decommissioning of clean energy facilities to promote preservation of agricultural land within the District.

The bottom line: fewer acres of land planted to crops should save enough water for those still farming to survive and keep commodity prices high enough to make some money.

Crop yields: Offsetting worries about acreage retirement is the long term trend of rising crop yields Take processing tomatoes- In the 1920s the yield for processing tomatoes averaged some 6 tons/acre in California. Today that same piece of dirt produces closer to 50 tons per acre. And that dramatically increased production is using dramatically less water.

The adoption of drip irrigation has been impressive. While only 2% of the acreage was under drip irrigation in 2001, this percentage was 19% in 2003, 33% in 2007 and 78% in 2012 says a UC Davis study.

Likewise for the Valley’s biggest crop – milk. Today fewer cows are producing more milk with less water use and less pollution.In the 1950s there were more than double the number of dairy cows in the United States as today but now they produce almost twice as much milk.

Back at that big Westside water district, they are looking to repurpose some of their lands but also experimenting with the water they have that could be put to use to grow cattle feed.

A new environmental notice posted this week says Westlands Water District is proposing a Desalination and On-Farm Recycling Pilot Project which will use an existing groundwater well to supply a reverse osmosis treatment facility. Using proprietary vegetation specifically engineered to uptake salts and other constituents, Westlands will apply the mineralized water to irrigate salt-tolerant crops, which will remove the salts and store in the plants. Due to this uptake of salts and minerals such as boron and selenium, the crop will be rich in nutrients, making a valuable source of bio-nutrients for livestock once harvested. The long-term average annual water supply benefit could be up to 1,460 acre-feet per year.

Valley land fallowing could reach 500,000 acres it has been estimated. Consider that some of that land could be used to recharge the aquifer but not grow a crop that competes with our farms.

Biz News  2/8/24

We got our good news and and our bad news 

The U.S. bought more goods from Mexico than China in 2023 for the first time in 20 years. Says the New York Times.The U.S. trade deficit with China fell last year to its lowest level in over a decade say the Wall St Journal.

WSJ reports that Logistics operators are starting to see signs of a freight rebound after a nearly two-year-long slump. Ocean imports into the U.S. are rising, intermodal rail volumes are picking up and some truckers are getting small but certain signals that demand is strengthening to start the year. The Logistics Managers’ Index surged last month, and several reports suggest that transportation prices are rising.

Orders for heavy duty trucks climb. ACT Research reports that North American Class 8 truck orders for January came in at 27,000 units, up 600 units from December. ACT preliminary data showed orders also increased 45% from a year ago.

Rite Aid’s large distribution center in Woodland California is permanently closing, resulting in the elimination of more than 200 jobs reports the Sacramento Business Journal.

Amazon lays off 114 in Fresno. A new WARN Notice says 114 employees at the Amazon warehouse at 3795 S Orange in Fresno will be laid off next month.The move by the large e-commerce giant  is part of a layoff of over 900 in California and 13,000 nationwide.Nevertheless, Amazon recorded its highest operating profit in its history in the holiday quarter of 2023, buoyed by revenue growth across all its major business lines and a year of heavy cost-cutting under the direction of CEO Andy Jassy.

The company announced on Thursday that its operating income – or profit from its core business operations that excludes certain items like investments in other firms and interest expenses – grew 383% year over year to $13.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, marking the second straight quarter in which Amazon has achieved its highest operating profit ever.

The California Energy Commission is expected to approve a $30 million grant for the construction of the manufacturing facility in Lancaster California that will produce battery electric powered school buses.The plant would an expansion of a facility already  there and owned by BYD Coach & Bus LLC dba RIDE Coach & Bus. When it is at full capacity, the facility will be able to build up to 4000 battery electric school buses annually. The proposed project is one phase of a renewable hydrogen fuel production facility in city.The proposed project consists of the construction and operation of a 630,000 square foot electric school bus manufacturing facility on approximately 30 acres. The project would employ 650 individuals,100 office staff and 550 manufacturing staff.The company Will compete in the active electric school bus industry. That includes other California makers, like Gillig in the Bay Area, ProTerra, in Los Angeles who recently declared bankruptcy and GreenPower Motor Co in Porterville.


Storm damage is hitting all California communities hard. In San Luis  Obispo the city says it has expended approximately $10.34 million on storm response to date, including debris removal, emergency protective measures, and projects to make permanent repairs to damaged facilities. As noted in prior updates, storm related costs continue to shift as projects are scoped and designed. Currently, the total storm costs are estimated at $35.6 million.


If it isn’t storm damage, it’s inflation that is also crimping government budgets around the state.In San Luis Obispo a prime illustration of this inflationary pressure is evident in the case of Righetti Park, a long- standing project initially projected at approximately $6 million. Current estimates place project costs at $20.5 million. This glaring disparity underscores the urgency to re-assess cost estimates comprehensively says a budget report.


Is there a future for Faraday Future car company with a manufacturing plant in Hanford California? This week the car company stock has dropped to just nine cents on the NASDAQ, a yearly log low. The yearly high was 68 cents.

A weeks worth of rain and snow help California supply reach closer to average

Snowpack in California is now over 72% of average- up 12% in one day after a cold wet week in Sierra. The central Sierra Snow Lab in Tahoe reports about 4 feet of snow in the past week. Further south at China Peak ski resort above Fresno, they report the mountain received about 5 feet of snow in the past week. Over the next 48 hours they could see another one to two feet in smaller doses of 3 to 4 inches during the day and evening. The report says the pattern will continue into Wednesday clearing for Thursday. At Mammoth Mountain the resort says the three day snow total adds up to 4 feet of new powder and 176 inches received so far this season at the main lodge.

As of February 2 the statewide snowpack water content was 57% of the average for the date. By Monday, February 5, the California Department of Water Resources reported the water content had risen to 72% of average for the date.

Water supply gets a boost

Monitoring rainfall at California’s most important reservoir -Shasta Lake -rainfall has been abundant in the past week, showing a similar straight up pattern in this graph comparing each year’s rainfall. Looking at the chart you can see the pattern follows last year’s uptick in rainfall through February 5.Looking at earlier years at the same chart you see that the spigot turns off after February in several dry water-years. So far this year, Shasta Lake has received about 37 inches of rain. And the Bureau is draining some storage to make more room. The second largest dam in the United States is already 82 % full and 28 feet from the top.

Further south on the coast in the San Luis Obispo/ Monterey area – heavy rainfall is helping to fill this area’s most important reservoir. Lake Nacimiento,  San Luis Obispo and Paso Robles most important water supply, the percentage of capacity jumped from 63% to 69% two days. Rainfall total today at the lake is 10.7 inches – not that far off of last year’s number on the same date of 11.9 inches received.

 At Salinas Reservoir at Santa Margarita Lake, the dam is already at 105% of capacity and nearby Lopez Lake is at 99.5% of capacity.

In Los Osos – dependent on groundwater for their supply, the community has received about 12.6 inches in the morning of February 6 – up about 4.6 inches since the first of the month. The community gets an average of about 18 inches rain a year.

Welcome to the the Wet Coast

-February 2,2024-

Rainfall along the Central Coast down through Southern California is expected to total almost 7.5 inches in the next 10 days as an atmospheric river plows into the state. The warm storm will make its way to the Sierra where 6 feet of snow will pile up in the strongest storm of the season.

Here is a photo of Big Meadow near Grant Grove before this weeks storms.Below photo from the Sequoia Conservancy

Weather Watch: Jan 29

Shasta Dam could see 7 inches of rain

Looks like the first week of February is going to be a wet one for most of California. Forecast for the Shasta Dam area- the state’s most important reservoir – for the next seven days indicate the area could get up to 7 inches of precipitation. Also note that the ten-day forecast for the lake shows rain every day.

The key federal CVP reservoir is already nearly 80% full. The most recent estimate is that Lake Shasta was 119% of historical average. It is only 40 foot to the top of the dam and 40 foot higher than was a year ago. The water level has climbed about 12 feet in the past 10 days.

Now another atmospheric river is on the way, and the National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center expects there is at least a 70 percent chance for above-average precipitation along California’s coast from January 30 to February 3.


The storms will help fill not just the most important federal dam in California, but the most important state reservoir at Oroville is at 132% of average today. Bu the snowpack has a ways to go at just 54% of average today.


Further south, the active AR is expected to blanket the slopes of China Peak ski resort near Huntington Lake above Fresno. In the San Joaquin watershed, this is the source of water for the most important canal in the Central Valley – the Friant-Kern. Snow forecasts for the next 5 days expect 3.5 feet of snow for China Peak – and a total of 7 feet in 10 days – more than double what has fallen this season.

The difference is these big AR events

20-30 inches of snow in Sierra Wed-Friday

NWS Hanford is predicting 20 to 30 inches of snow at higher elevations in the Kaweah watershed as well as San Joaquin River locations like Huntington Lake from Wednesday through Friday. Here are some rainfall and snow totals for the central Sierra that will definitely give a boost to our future water supply.

click to enlarge graphs