Author: John

Still Blue: Latest SLO voter registration stats show GOP with little growth


No Party Preference shrinks

Every four years the California Secretary of State publishes voter registration statistics for every county in California. Statistics for the upcoming November election were published in July prior.

This year comparing the number of Democrats registered versus Republicans over the past 4 years in San Luis Obispo County shows growth among the Democrats, but almost no growth for the GOP.

In July 2020 registration numbers show 66,247 Democrats versus 61,883 Republicans. That breaks down to 37.3% Democrats and 34.8% Republicans.

Fast forward to July of this year. Now Democrats number 68,434 versus the Republicans in SLO County at 62,198.

That addition shows that the Democrats have gained 2187 voters in the past four years while Republicans have gained just 315.

The Dems advantage in SLO County has improved from plus 4364 in 2020 to plus 6236 in July 2024. The two parties were about even in 2018 but a blue wave has been the rule since.The two parties have traded places since 2008 when the GOP had a 7000 vote edge.

Percent wise Dems are 38.44% of the electorate in 2024 while the GOP share is 34.94% – slightly higher than 4 years ago.

The category of No Party Preference in 2020 numered 37,633 or 21.20%. But in 2024 this segment has shrunk here – now 18.15% of all voters with 32,310, a decline of more than 5000 .

Statewide the trends are similar to San Luis Obispo County.

The total voter registration in the state increased from 20,921,513 to 22,171,899 over the four year period.

  • The percentage of eligible Californians who are registered to vote decreased from 83.49% to 82.43%.
  • The percentage of voters who have no party preference decreased from 24.04% to 21.88%.
  • The percentage of voters registered with a qualified political party increased from 74.86% to 76.93%.
  • The percentage of voters registered with the Democratic Party decreased from 46.32% to 46.19%.
  • The percentage of voters registered with the Republican Party increased from 23.99% to 24.73

The total voter registration in the state increased from 20,921,513 to 22,171,899 over the four year period.

The numbers show Dems have gained more than 2 million voters statewide since 2016 while the GOP gained around 600,000 as did No Party.

Santa Barbara numbers 

How about Santa Barbara County? Dems have grown their numbers by almost 5000 while the GOP has grown by about 2000. As of the latest count, Dems have 111,116 voters compared to 59,688 for the GOP, approaching a 2 to 1 advantage.

Fresno County Dems lose voters.

In Fresno County in the San Joaquin Valley Democrats have 193,551 voters registered compared to 165,457 for the GOP. But since 2020 the GOP has gained about 10,000 new voters compared to 6000 new Dems. Still the blue team enjoys an advantage of more than 28,000.But they were up 32,000 in 2020 climbing from plus 21,000 in 2018.Lately the GOP appears to be fighting back.

In conservative Fresno County the GOP held a voter advantage as recently as 2008.

In red Tulare County the GOP has increased its advantage slightly with better than a plus 11,000.

As the election gets closer this year and parties register new voters, the state will do a new survey and we’ll see if the trend is the same or not.

Wisconsin edu photo

Permit report confirms Visalia Sam’s Club and Chick-fil-A plans

A request for a conditional use permit for a shopping center on South Mooney Blvd. will be heard at a September 23 Planning Commission meeting. The permit application includes a study that names the key big box store tenant and popular fast food restaurant-both new to Visalia.

The study details plans to build a 172,000 Sam’s Club discount store and a 28 pump Sam’s gas station as well as a 5500sf Chick-fil-A fast food restaurant.Names are included in traffic studies and letters from commenters to the Mitigated Negative Declaration environmental report.

Fresno developer Jim Shehadey said he could not confirm the details at this time.The project site is located on the southwest corner of S. Mooney Blvd. and W. Visalia Parkway. The center called Visalia Commons is already partially built out with several retail and restaurant uses.

Approved by the Planning Commission in September the new developments could be moving forward by next year and even open before the holiday season of 2025.

The coming of Sam’s Club to Visalia is big news considering the Walmart-owned club store will now rival Costco just down the block who is building a second location at Riggin and Shirk in North Visalia.Both follow a membership format to shop there. Sam’s Club itself is in an expansion mode nationwide with some 599 stores in the US currently..

There is also plenty of excitement in town with the new Chick-fil-A coming to South Mooney. Recently the franchise owner of Tulare filed preliminary plans for a location for a Chick-fil-A there at Cartmill and Highway 99.

Chick-fil-A is the third largest quick-service restaurant company in the United States, with more than 3,000 restaurants across the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. In 2023, the company shared plans to expand by 2030 into Europe and Asia. 

Chick-fil-A owner-operators live and work in the communities their restaurants serve. The family-owned and privately held company was founded in 1967 by S. Truett Cathy.

Also new to the Visalia Commons shopping center will be a new car wash added to the existing sit down restaurant Texas Roadhouse, and Les Schwab, Panda Express and Dutch Brothers – already in business. A few years ago the Visalia City Council turned down a proposed CarMax dealership here.The site is across Mooney from the Aldi anchored center .

Rumors that Sam’ Club and Chick-fil-A might come to the center were first published last November and now it looks likely it will happen.

Petroleum watch


Diesel price down 


Shipping cargo in California is getting cheaper this summer as diesel prices in the Golden State continue to drop. AAA says diesel prices a year ago were an average of $5.73 as of August 24,2023.This August 24 the cost is down to $4.92- down 81 cents dropping 12 cents from late July 2024.

Nationwide the average diesel price decreased by 1.6 cents, settling at $3.688 per gallon as of Aug. 19, according to the Energy Information Administration. This marks the sixth consecutive week of declines, with prices cumulatively dropping by 17.7 cents over this period.  The current diesel price is 70.1 cents lower than it was at this time in 2023.


Transportation is a huge factor in food prices that appear to be dropping this summer as well. Food price inflation in the US remained unchanged at 2.2% in July 2024 compared to the previous month, as prices were unchanged for both food at home (1.1%) and food away from home (4.1%). On a monthly basis, food prices rose by 0.2% in July, after rising by 0.2% in the prior month. Food inflation was double that a year ago. 

Reduced demand for petroleum

Petroleum prices in general are down on reduced demand and high production.  This year the U.S. is pumping record amounts of petroleum

.“We’ve never produced more oil than we’re producing now,” Andrew Gross, a spokesperson for AAA says. That record production comes as U.S. demand has tapered — from 9.8 million barrels of gasoline per day in recent years to barely 9 million per day now

Oil analyst Tom Kloza points to several factors to explain the change in an NPR news article.: Remote work means fewer commuters. There are an estimated 3.3 million electric vehicles on U.S. roads, more than twice as many as in 2021. More EVs have helped keep demand for gasoline in check, although Kloza notes that the effect is relatively modest, with every million EVs sold reducing demand by about 22,000 barrels a day. And Kloza also notes the gradually aging U.S. population — older Americans, he says, “tend to drive a lot less.”

National 30-year fixed mortgage rates go down to 5.99% says Zillow

Zillow reports that the current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell 3 basis points from 6.02% to 5.99% on Friday August 23.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is down 16 basis points from the previous week’s average rate of 6.15%.

The rate is down as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell Friday when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled at the annual Jackson Hole symposium that the central bank will soon begin cutting interest rates.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped by about 6 basis points to 3.801%.

Additionally, the current national average 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased 3 basis points from 5.34% to 5.31%. The current national average 5-year ARM mortgage rate is up 17 basis points from 6.16% to 6.33%.

Around Los Osos

Water company to merge with CSD

Board directors of the small S&T Mutual Water company have asked Los Osos Community Service District if they could merge their operations-a move that would reduce the number of water suppliers in town from 3 to 2.

On August 1 the board of Los Osos CSD said they would entertain the idea. S&T serves the Monarch Grove/Sunset Terrace area but has recently faced challenges with high nitrate levels at their only well.


A representative of Golden State Water suggested they could offer benefits for working with them instead of the CSD.

But the CSD this past month approved the idea requested by S&T.

 Now that the consolidation is conceptually approved, there are multiple steps that need to be taken before finalizing the merger.
The S&T letter to the CSD says “S&T exists on the far western side of the Los Osos Groundwater Basin and is therefore inherently limited by both seawater intrusion and nitrate contamination of the upper and lower aquifers. The LOCSD has proactively and wisely pursued a pipeline to connect to the State Water Project (SWP) and we believe this signifies the most robust management of the water resources within our constrained basin.

Furthermore, we have observed that the LOCSD has taken on critical and costly projects while also minding a budget that ensures your ratepayers are not overly burdened by such improvements. With only 179 connections each of our customers must pay a higher share for infrastructure upgrades. In the past several years, it has become apparent that our rates will continue to increase rapidly as we work to address much-needed repairs and upgrades to the aging S&T water system.”

The state’s SAFER program, the program that encourages small water system consolidation, is designed to
pay for the costs of design and connection between the two water systems and other incidental costs associated with the consolidation. 

Rite Aid bankruptcy taking more time

The Rite Aid drugstore chain bankruptcy is taking more time than originally thought, and the Los Osos location continues to have empty shelves because the company is limited on shipping product here.
One representative says it could take another month to sort out the issues in the bankruptcy. Still there is optimism the issues will be resolved and the shelves of the largest local drugstore will be replenished.

Economic Development Forum Kicks Off in Visalia August 6


Tulare County will welcome TeamCalifornia’s 10th annual Meet the Consultants (MTC) Site Selection and Economic Development Forum from August 6-8, 2024, as the Forum’s Title Sponsor. This gathering is a unique opportunity for site selectors, economic development stakeholders and leaders from California cities and counties to convene and explore potential economic development opportunities across the state.

What: The Meet the Consultants event will feature engaging economic development conversations on August 6 and 7, and feature a trip to the Sequoias on August 8 to highlight the importance of tourism to Tulare County’s economic development strategy. Media teams are invited to attend all or portions of the gathering. Event information is available online by visiting www.growtularecounty.org/meet-the-consultants

When: Tuesday, August 6, 2024; Wednesday, August 7, 2024; Thursday, August 8, 2024

Where:

Day 1 will begin at the Visalia Convention Center at 2:00 p.m., and a VIP dinner event will commence at 7:00 p.m. at Eagle Mountain Casino.
Day 2 will commence at 8:30 a.m. at the Visalia Convention Center. In the evening, there will be a networking session at Mulligan’s, the new downtown Visalia golfing destination.
Day 3 will be a trip to the Sequoia National Park.
Why: This gathering is a unique opportunity for site selectors, economic development stakeholders, and leaders from California cities and counties to convene and explore potential economic development opportunities across the state. California is the world’s 5th largest economy, and the local significance of hosting the Meet The Consultants event in Visalia, California, underscores the commitment of the County of Tulare and regional partners to contribute to California’s economic growth. While the event will provide opportunities for all California jurisdictions attending, the County of Tulare has worked collaboratively with all 8 incorporated cities in Tulare County to utilize the opportunity of hosting the event to highlight key development opportunities in the cities and unincorporated areas. Tulare County is a top-producing agricultural county in California and also boasts development opportunities in advanced manufacturing, commercial investments and health care.

Event Guest Speakers:

Session One: Kim Moore, Newmark Group
Session Two: Will Hearn, Site Dynamics, LLC
Session Three: Christopher Lloyd, McGuire Woods
Session Four: Garrick Brown, Retail 2024: What’s Hot, What’s Not and How to Lure Top Chains in a Bifurcated Culture
Session Five: Rick Kingery, Colliers
Session Six: Courtney Dunbar, Burns & McDonnell
Other Speakers: Niree Kodaverdian (Beacon Economics), Natalie Pebbles (Jersey Mike’s Subs), Derek Kirk (GO-Biz), Poonum Patel (GO-Biz)
View complete agenda online: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/meet-the-consultants-2024-registration-877588048477?aff=oddtdtcreator
Speakers Readily Available for Interview:

TeamCalifornia EDC: CEO and President Robin Reimold
County of Tulare Resource Management Agency: Associate Director Michael G. Washam, ACE
All guest speakers listed in the event agenda.
For more information, email or call the contact Lacey Patrick (LPatrick@tularecounty.ca.gov).

Will we head back to the cinema?

The nation’s largest theater chain just posted second-quarter results for this year. Are people heading back to the movie theaters? Not yet, it seems.

During a quarter in which box office grosses started off weaker, the nation’s biggest exhibitor AMC Theatres posted a net loss as well as revenue almost $300 million below the comparable frame a year ago.

Attendance drops 25%

The movie theater chain, led by CEO Adam Aron, posted total revenue of $1.03 billion and a loss of $32.8 million in the second quarter of 2024. Attendance fell from 66 million-plus patrons at its theaters a year ago to about 50 million in its latest quarter, about a 25 percent decline. The U.S. market saw a slightly higher decline in quarterly attendance compared to attendance at its theater locations in international markets.

Treehouse California Almonds Plans Expansion


Treehouse California Almonds sells a full range of roasted and manufactured almonds, including blanched whole, sliced, and diced almonds, almond meal, almond butter, and natural whole almonds. The almonds are hulled and shelled in the Treehouse Almonds plant near Delano in Kern County. This shelled raw product is then trucked to the Earlimart site for processing in Tulare County. The company has applied to Tulare County for a permit.

Expansion will happen at 6914 Road 160, Earlimart, CA . The proposed project consists of an expansion of the existing processing plant into four (4) phases, including construction of additional processing, warehouse, and canopy space, solar canopies, and a new WWTF to treat wastewater for irrigation.

  • Phase 1: Construction of a 644 sq. ft. metal building addition, a 4,966 sq. ft. canopy, and (2) 5,013 sq. ft. fumigation room buildings with (2) 902 sq. ft. canopies for a total of 5,915 sq. ft. ea. as additions to an existing warehouse. It will include the relocation of an existing 750 sq. ft. scale house. It will also include the construction of a water treatment facility.
  • Phase 2: Construction of a 5,176 sq. ft. canopy, a 6,263 sq. ft. fumigation room building with a 1,127 sq. ft. canopy for a total of 7,390 sq. ft., and a 1,275 sq. ft. fumigation room with a 230 sq. ft. canopy for a total of 1,505 sq. ft. as additions to an existing warehouse.
  • Phase 3: Construction of a 162,000 sq. ft. warehouse.
  • Phase 4: Construction of a 4,433 sq. ft. solar panel canopy, a 6,975 sq. ft. solar panel canopy, and a 7,182 sq. ft. solar panel canopy.

The Project would allow the applicant to diversify the packaging of materials on-site and use additional property for wastewater treatment and irrigation of crops. The Project will not increase operational hours. The Project will not increase the volume of raw almond product coming into the facility from Delano, nor will it increase the amount of processed or finished product shipped out of the facility.

The facility currently operates two (2) 10-hour shifts, four (4) to five (5) days a week, depending on the season, with 87 employees working the day shift and 49 employees working the night shift. The proposed Project is anticipated to add an additional eight employees.

Extreme heat puts pressure on summer crops


The USDA, NASS May Crop Production forecast for California peach production in 2024 is 510,000 tons, a 6 percent increase from 2023. California is the top peach-producing state.

A larger California peach crop is expected in 2024 despite a warm winter resulting in the second lowest chill hour accumulation in the last 50 years.

Growers reported abundant fruit set and generally good spring weather conditions. However, persistent high summer temperatures in the Central Valley may negatively impact fruit quality, sizing, and lead to increased fruit drop.

Table grapes affected

 News reports say “The prolonged heat wave has slowed the supply of California table grapes, with vines shutting down and picking crews working fewer hours just as the state’s main growing region ramps up harvest.

San Joaquin Valley growers, who produce most of the nation’s fresh-market grapes, say the excessive heat has begun to damage some varieties while inhibiting growth of others. Pickers have been working mostly six-hour shifts in the morning to avoid sweltering afternoon temperatures, leaving fruit on the vine, as they can’t pick it all.

“It’s just taking longer to pick it,” said Kern County grower Mark Hall.

Temperatures soared to triple digits just as the region began harvest in early July. Though some of Hall’s early Flame Seedless were fine, he said the extended heat spell is now affecting quality. Overripe fruit that didn’t get picked on time turned mushy and melted. His Sugraone grapes—a greenish-yellow seedless variety—may be a total loss due to heat damage and mildew, which weakens the skin and causes the berries to crack and rot. Autumn King, another light-green variety, shows some sunburn.

With other valley growers in the same boat, Hall said there’s not as much fruit on the market, which has helped prices. In more typical years, prices tend to drop in the middle of summer and rise later in the season as supplies wane.”


Table grape imports reach record high in 2023/24, exceed domestic production for the first time

USDA says fresh table grape imports reach record high in 2023/24, exceed domestic production for the first time: Fresh grape imports for the 2023/24 marketing year were 1.75 billion pounds, exceeding the 2022/23 record volume of 1.64 billion pounds. Imports continue to make up an increasingly larger share of fresh grape availability, accounting for 56 percent of fresh table grape supply on average in 2020/21–2022/23. The share of imports has trended upward for 5
consecutive years, reaching a record high (63 percent) in 2023/24 as imports exceeded domestic production volume for the first time .

Company building battery storage at the Visalia Industrial Park will ship power to Riverside


The new 5-acre battery storage facility being built in the Visalia Industrial Park will not power up local companies but send contracted electricity to the City of Riverside.Ormat Technologies has signed a 15-year contract for an 80MW/320MWh battery energy storage system (BESS) to the SoCal city 250 miles away from Visalia.


The City of Riverside contract requires Ormat to bring the project into operation by the guaranteed commercial operation date  of 1 March 2026, although the company said it expects to be able to do so earlier, by the end of 2025.


In today’s market for electricity, power can be generated not just by utilities like SoCal Edison but by a third-party under electric power agreement – a long-term contract between an electricity generator and a customer, usually a utility, government or company. Customers can often get a cheaper base rate from these agreements and the power can come from far away or next door.

Ormat develops, owns and operates geothermal energy projects, with additional business lines in waste-to-heat and energy storage technologies.


Energy storage comprised just 4% of the company’s total revenues in 2023, but Ormat sees it as a high-growth potential business.

The energy storage division opened in 2020, following the company’s 2017 acquisition of energy storage developer Viridity. Ormat decided to enter the market to broaden its revenue base and noted in 2020 that the COVID-19 pandemic impacted revenues from its geothermal power generation and development as well as waste-to-heat generation.


The company claims 100% of its projects under construction as of Q1 2024 are eligible for the Investment Tax Credit. The Shirk project in Visalia for the City of Riverside is ‘currently expected to be eligible for a 40% tax credit, Ormat said in its announcement this month.   
The project is called the Shirk BESS given its proximity to Shirk Ave.

“The Shirk project shows the continued progress that Ormat has been making towards aligning our strategic growth focus to capitalise on key target markets in the US, such as California, while also transitioning our energy storage business to become a higher-growth segment with a balance of contracted revenues,” CEO Doron Blachar said.

Shirk Battery Energy Storage System Project has been approved by the City of Visalia and is under construction at 7626 W. Sunnyview near Shirk.

Visalia and Tulare County will not get the power but they will get property tax.