No Party Preference shrinks
Every four years the California Secretary of State publishes voter registration statistics for every county in California. Statistics for the upcoming November election were published in July prior.
This year comparing the number of Democrats registered versus Republicans over the past 4 years in San Luis Obispo County shows growth among the Democrats, but almost no growth for the GOP.
In July 2020 registration numbers show 66,247 Democrats versus 61,883 Republicans. That breaks down to 37.3% Democrats and 34.8% Republicans.
Fast forward to July of this year. Now Democrats number 68,434 versus the Republicans in SLO County at 62,198.
That addition shows that the Democrats have gained 2187 voters in the past four years while Republicans have gained just 315.
The Dems advantage in SLO County has improved from plus 4364 in 2020 to plus 6236 in July 2024. The two parties were about even in 2018 but a blue wave has been the rule since.The two parties have traded places since 2008 when the GOP had a 7000 vote edge.
Percent wise Dems are 38.44% of the electorate in 2024 while the GOP share is 34.94% – slightly higher than 4 years ago.
The category of No Party Preference in 2020 numered 37,633 or 21.20%. But in 2024 this segment has shrunk here – now 18.15% of all voters with 32,310, a decline of more than 5000 .
Statewide the trends are similar to San Luis Obispo County.
The total voter registration in the state increased from 20,921,513 to 22,171,899 over the four year period.
- The percentage of eligible Californians who are registered to vote decreased from 83.49% to 82.43%.
- The percentage of voters who have no party preference decreased from 24.04% to 21.88%.
- The percentage of voters registered with a qualified political party increased from 74.86% to 76.93%.
- The percentage of voters registered with the Democratic Party decreased from 46.32% to 46.19%.
- The percentage of voters registered with the Republican Party increased from 23.99% to 24.73
The total voter registration in the state increased from 20,921,513 to 22,171,899 over the four year period.
The numbers show Dems have gained more than 2 million voters statewide since 2016 while the GOP gained around 600,000 as did No Party.
Santa Barbara numbers
How about Santa Barbara County? Dems have grown their numbers by almost 5000 while the GOP has grown by about 2000. As of the latest count, Dems have 111,116 voters compared to 59,688 for the GOP, approaching a 2 to 1 advantage.
Fresno County Dems lose voters.
In Fresno County in the San Joaquin Valley Democrats have 193,551 voters registered compared to 165,457 for the GOP. But since 2020 the GOP has gained about 10,000 new voters compared to 6000 new Dems. Still the blue team enjoys an advantage of more than 28,000.But they were up 32,000 in 2020 climbing from plus 21,000 in 2018.Lately the GOP appears to be fighting back.
In conservative Fresno County the GOP held a voter advantage as recently as 2008.
In red Tulare County the GOP has increased its advantage slightly with better than a plus 11,000.
As the election gets closer this year and parties register new voters, the state will do a new survey and we’ll see if the trend is the same or not.
Wisconsin edu photo