Sacramento consultant firms Plescia & Co. and Gruen Gruen + Associates have filed a report with the City of Visalia assessing the regional retail lands need for the community going forward. The report comes after a blue ribbon committee of Visalians have pushed for a more aggressive opening up of regional retail commercial land opportunities including Hwy 99 for a shopping center as the city finalizes its 2030 General Plan Update.
The idea has sharply divided both the community and the Visalia City Council. The report amounts to a second opinion that will be considered by the General Plan Update Committee at their meeting July 26 and likely next month at a council session.
Here are some key findings of the report released July 12 that appears to offer a middle course on the pace and location of new development.
Visalia/Mooney Get Stronger
The City of Visalia has continued to capture more sales from shoppers living outside of Visalia than it has lost through leakage of sales to retailers located outside the community. Visalia’s capture of Tulare County’s annual retail sales has slightly increased over the past 10 years from approximately 42.9 percent in 2000 to 43.4 percent in 2010. While some Tulare and Kings County communities have added some large format, big box and / or general merchandise retailers, they lack the depth and variety of the retailers and retail environments present on Mooney Boulevard in Visalia.
Despite this growth of retail space in surrounding Tulare and Kings County communities, the Mooney Boulevard Corridor actually enhanced its position as the dominant retailing location within the city and Tulare County despite competing supply additions elsewhere with the share of countywide sales going from 20 percent in 2000 to 22 percent in 2010. Also, the Corridor’s share of citywide sales increased from 42 percent in 2000 to 47 percent of total citywide sales in 2010.
Vacancy On Mooney
Approximately 200,000 to 250,000 square feet of the inventory of commercial spaces of at least 12,000sf on the Mooney Boulevard is currently vacant. The vacancy rate on Mooney fell from the peak during the Great Recession from 20 percent in 2009 to 12.3 percent in early 2012.
Approximately 441,000 square feet of previously vacant commercial retail space was re-occupied from 2009 to mid-2012 with approximately 836,000 square feet (net) of new development from 2002 to mid-2012.
The City of Visalia’s current General Plan includes approximately 47 acres of vacant land area designated for Regional Retail Commercial use on the Mooney Boulevard Corridor. However, some of these designated properties (along Stonebrook for example) may not appeal to regional retail users or uses requiring direct frontage and visibility and ideal access to Mooney.Only approximately 11 acres east of Lowe’s could accommodate Regional Retail Commercial use appears to be suitable to the preferences of regional retail space users, say the consultants.
Growth In Demand
The report suggests unmet demand should grow to 1.45 million sf in Visalia by 2020 and 2.35 million sf by 2030. As it is, the report says the are just 300,000 sf of vacant or infill space available on Mooney. The report does not address filling some of that demand away from Mooney – on 198 or Dinuba Blvd, for example. Mooney amounts to half the city’s retail sales so perhaps half of the that expected demand might be satisfied elsewhere in town.
Nevertheless, the report concludes that “the forecast additional retail demand exceeds the current capacity of vacant land and retail space to support additional regional retail uses within the Mooney Boulevard Corridor.”
Recommendations
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“The City of Visalia should encourage the expansion of existing and development of future complementary clusters of retail goods and services, lodging facilities, and institutional educational and healthcare uses that reinforce each other and serve to extend the trade area served or the frequency of visitation to the Mooney Corridor.”
Regional Commercial Development South of Visalia Parkway
The consultant suggests the City of Visalia consider designating and rezoning a portion of the land area along Mooney Boulevard south of Visalia Parkway( south of Packwood Creek shopping center) currently designated Regional Retail Reserve as Regional Commercial – initially the area between Visalia Parkway and Avenue 274 (the 30-acre parcel located on the southwest intersection and a 40-acre area located at the southeast intersection of Visalia Parkway and Mooney Boulevard) within three to five years after the adoption of the Visalia 2030 General Plan Update.
The recommendation would result in opening up additional land area increasing retail location choices and enhancing the retail synergy within the Mooney Boulevard Corridor, they say.
Development of the proposed Regional Commercial land use designation area further south along Mooney Boulevard between Avenue 274 and Avenue 272 should happen later as the General Plan envisions.
Specialty Regional Retail at Highway 99 and Caldwell Avenue
The proposed designated Specialty Regional Retail area (175 acres) at the southeast intersection of State Highway 99 and Caldwell Avenue could potentially support approximately 1.5 million square feet of additional new commercial development. However, given the retail supply demand analysis presented in the report, “sufficient unmet demand is unlikely to arise in the next 20 years to support two major retail agglomerations similar to that established on Mooney Boulevard within Visalia.”
In addition, the Highway 99 and Caldwell Avenue intersection is currently void of and will require significant and costly major infrastructure including roadways, facilities and utility improvements (including reconstruction of the existing highway interchange) that would be needed to accommodate development of the subject area.
Regarding the Hwy 99 plan the report concludes”This location should not be reserved for general regional retail, because allowing retail agglomeration on this site that mirrors the retail mix on Mooney Boulevard could potentially adversely affect the long-term economic and commercial vitality of the Mooney Boulevard Corridor.”
However,the consultant did not rule out the idea of attracting a particular specialty retailer (IKEA for example) to this site saying”We recommend that the City of Visalia consider establishing policies in the context of the Visalia 2030 General Plan Update that positions this location in the long term to capture true regional iconic destination retail uses or possibly uses such as educational institutions that derive unique advantages from highway accessibility.