California has published new rules for zero-emission motorcycles that would mandate zero-emission motorcycles (ZEMs) in the state for the first time in 25 years. With the California Air Resources Board’s proposed ZEM credit system, one company -Aptera- believes it could earn a substantial new revenue stream, similar to Tesla’s success with ZEV credits.
For the first time in over 25 years, CARB is taking aim at emissions from 2-3 wheeled vehicles. Unlike light-duty vehicles, motorcycle emissions standards haven’t changed since 1998, and today’s gas-powered motorcycles emit 20 times more reactive gases per mile than modern cars,says a company statement.
California’s new mandate will require that 10% of motorcycles sold in the state be zero-emission by 2028, scaling to 50% by 2035. This shift is set to reduce motorcycle emissions by half, protecting California’s air quality and health, Aptera management believes.
Aptera’s Unique Position As a solar electric vehicle (sEV) classified as a three-wheeled motorcycle, Aptera’s design aligns directly with California’s vision. Powered by integrated solar panels, Aptera is a truly zero-emission vehicle, delivering clean, efficient transportation without relying on the grid or gasoline for daily commutes. The company has a manufacturing plant in Carlsbad California.
Revenue Potential Tesla has proven the financial potential of ZEM credit trading, amassing over $9 billion from regulatory credits since 2009. In Q3 2024 alone, Tesla’s ZEM credits accounted for $739 million, nearly 34% of its net income. For Aptera, each vehicle sold in California will generate multiple credits, creating a significant new revenue stream through the sale of credits to other OEMS, supporting our profitability, and contributing to California’s environmental goals.
CARB will vote on this landmark regulation on November 7.
Pollution plagued India has seen a surge of sales of electric 2W vehicles– the second largest electric 2W market globally – where 2023 sales grew by 40% compared to 2022. Electric “tuk tuks” are replacing gasoline powered rickshaw taxis and delivery vehicles in Thailand and in Africa as well. caption: California manufactured electric motorcycle made by Aptera
E15 sign in Iowa gas station.Iowa Renewable Fuels Assn
The Renewable Fuels Association October 25th applauded California Gov. Gavin Newsom for directing the state’s Air Resources Board (CARB) to expedite the approval of E15, gasoline containing 15 percent ethanol. California is the only state in the country that doesn’t currently allow the sale of lower-cost, lower-carbon E15 but limits it to 10%.
In a letter to CARB Chair Liane Randolph Gov. Newsom wrote, “Given the potential for allowing E15 gasoline to increase fuel supply and reduce gasoline prices, with little to no environmental harm, it is prudent for CARB to prioritize resources that would allow for the expeditious completion of this process. Therefore, I am directing CARB to accelerate its action on this critical issue.” E15 fuel, which contains 15% ethanol, has been widely adopted in other states and could significantly reduce prices without adding environmental harm, says RFA. As of 2023, E15 was sold at more than 3,000stations in 31 states.
In a related news release, Newsom stated, “There’s massive potential for this to be a win-win for Californians: lowering gas prices by up to twenty cents per gallon while keeping our air clean. It builds on our efforts to keep gas prices low by holding Big Oil accountable and helping prevent price spikes at the pump.”
Gov. Newsom’s letter cited a recent study by economists at the University of California, Berkeley and United States Naval Academy that showed E15 could result in a $0.20 per gallon price decrease for the state’s drivers, saving California families up to $2.7 billion per year. E15 is a fuel blend that contains 15% ethanol and is generally cheaper than regular gasoline, says the RFA.
Price: In April 2023, E15 was on average $0.27 per gallon cheaper than E10, or 7.4%.In summer 2023, E15 was on average 10–30 cents per gallon cheaper than regular gas, with some locations offering over $1 off per gallon.
Reasons for lower price: Ethanol is cheaper to produce than gasoline, and the domestic production of ethanol from corn helps stabilize fuel prices.
Benefits: E15 is a lower-carbon option and can help save money on fuel.
“”We sincerely appreciate Gov. Newsom’s efforts to accelerate the approval of the cleaner, greener E15 fuel blend in California,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “Not only does E15 reduce greenhouse gas emissions and harmful tailpipe pollution, but it also delivers significant savings at the pump. Allowing the sale of E15 would provide economic relief to California families, while at the same time providing important environmental benefits.” Newsom’s news release also highlights recent vehicle testing from the University of California, Riverside showing that “blending in gasoline would not affect NOx emissions and would reduce particulate emissions.”
CARB has long argued that higher blends of ethanol would hurt the fight against air pollution. Given their opposition, ethanol manufacturers based in California had trouble making a profit and several have gone out of business. Just a few weeks ago CARB appeared poised to make it harder to offer higher blends in the state.
RFA opposed proposed regulations updating California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard recently noting that CARB’s proposal was “fundamentally flawed and could significantly restrict the future use of low-carbon ethanol in the state”, the Renewable Fuels Association wrote.
CARB had been criticized by the RFA arguing that ” renewable fuel producers and California consumers will suffer if CARB moves ahead with its unnecessary and inexplicable proposal for new “sustainability” requirements and an arbitrary new method for assigning hypothetical land use change penalties.
“If CARB had its thumb on the scale against ethanol before, now they are trying to give themselves the authority to put their whole fist on the scale,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “This proposal is completely disconnected from reality and, if finalized, will very likely result in shortages of low-carbon fuels and higher fuel prices for California consumers.”
Now Newsom is weighing in and if CARB changes its tune could help reduce average fuel cost in California, widely known for high gas prices. CARB needs to finish their studies first.
Ethanol is made from corn and is not an oil product.It is blended with gasoline around the state available at all gas stations.Blending at the 15% level should not require much retooling of the process, say sources.
Consumer Reports writes that “the EPA says E15 can be used in flexible-fuel vehicles, as well as 2001 and newer cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty SUVs. Don’t use E15 in motorcycles or other small engines, heavy-duty trucks, or nonroad vehicles such as boats and snowmobiles.”
Oil analyst Tom Kloza has written that it “looks like CA governor Newsom will look to accelerate car approval of E 15 gasoline blends.Opis data shows ethanol to be about $.40 a gallon beneath Carbob so the move makes economic sense”. Carbob gas from the refineries for use in California is mixed with ethanol at the terminal racks before the finished blend shows up at your local station.
Come the new year there will be a new way to catch a ride around Visalia.
Assistant City Manager John Lollis says Visalia residents will be able to access a newly purchased fleet of microtransit vehicles starting in January.
Microtransit is a transportation service that instead of running on a fixed-route, uses technology to provide on-demand rides within a designated area. Riders use a smartphone app or website to request a ride, and software matches the rider’s location with a vehicle and estimates a pick-up time. The vehicle may deviate from its route to pick up the rider.
The Visalia City Council will be considering the final component of Visalia Transit’s new microtransit service at its meeting on December 3, 2024, with the proposed farebox rate of $5 for trips within the city of Visalia.
The council will also receive a staff presentation on Visalia Transit’s robust overall transit operations, including Dial-A-Ride, Fixed Route, Sequoia Shuttle, V-Line, as well as the anticipated new Cross Valley Express between Lindsay and Hanford.
In regards to microtransit, at its meeting on September 16, 2024, the Council approved the purchase of seven vehicles to deliver the service, as well as software to support the service, which both are expected to be delivered to Visalia by December 1st.
Now they need to come up with a catchy name.Transit staff is currently refining the brand and graphics of the microtransit vehicles, with promotion and beginning of services planned for January 2025, says Lollis.
Microtransit services are typically offered by local governments or public transit agencies but operated by third-party companies.The idea has been spreading in the U.S. for years as traditional transit struggles to increase ridership. They’re similar to ride-sharing companies like Uber and Lyft — and operated by similar types of tech startups — but still subsidized like other modes of public transit. Screenshot 2024-10-25 at 11.29.33 AM.png In other parts of Tulare County microtransit is already offered. With Visalia starting up, the Tulare County Regional Transit Agency (TCRTA) is proposing changes to its on-demand microtransit service. In anticipation of the City of Visalia deploying its own microtransit service, TCRTA proposes discontinuing its service of providing intra-city trips in the Visalia zone.
For Inter-city trips to and from the City of Visalia, riders will continue to be dropped off and picked up from their destination. Going forward, TCRTA will collaborate with its partners on microtransit inter-city trip policy and protocols. TCRTA is also proposing changes to microtransit pick-up times from 30 minutes in all areas to a market-based approach where pick-up times are determined by availability with the rider determining whether to accept the ride as they see fit.
Targeted average pick-up times for urban areas are proposed to be under 30 minutes, and rural areas under one hour.
Public hearing
Members of the public are encouraged to comment. A Public Hearing for final comments will be held at the TCRTA Board Meeting scheduled for Monday, November 18, 2024, at 4:00 pm. The hearing will be held in the TCRTA Conference Room located at 200 E. Center Ave., Visalia, CA.
Cross Valley Express bus service funded
Meanwhile,Tulare County has received over $50 million for the Cross Valley Express project, which will offer a new bus service
Tulare County has received $59,100,000 in funding for their Cross Valley Express: Kings-Tulare County Regional Bus and Capital Infrastructure plan. The funds come from the California State Transportation Agency.
Officials say the project will establish a new transit bus network connecting Visalia, Hanford and Lindsay, to the San Joaquin Hanford Amtrak station and the future Kings-Tulare High-Speed Rail station in Hanford.
Phase 1A launched July 1, 2024 and will provide connection from Visalia to Hanford with four round trips per day, including four round-trips on weekdays and two round trips on Saturdays. This phase will also provide a convenient connection to Amtrak San Joaquins trains (702 & 712).
Phase 1B is slated to be in service by January 2025 and will add service from Visalia to Hanford – enhancing the frequency and convenience of the route.
And lastly, a future Phase 1C will focus on implementing an Express Bus, providing service every half-hour, connecting Hanford to Lindsay and the High-Speed Rail connection.
California’s new light vehicle registrations fell by 1.7 percent YTD versus the year earlier, totaling 1,320,708 through September 2024 says the latest California New Car Dealers Auto Outlook.
The state is forecasted to reach 1.75 million new vehicle registrations by year-end. Overall sales in 2023 reached 1.77 million, indicating a flat YOY prediction. Additionally, early 2025 estimates remain in the narrow range, with total projected sales to reach 1.79 million.
New vehicle registrations in the Golden State seem to be leveling off post-pandemic with a new yearly average benchmark. Three of the past four years have totaled approximately 1.76 million registrations, far less than the pre-pandemic years (2015-2019), which hovered just above 2 million registrations. Affordability remains a key issue holding back numbers, but lower interest rates, falling inflation, increasing employment, and rising incentives may help sales rise into 2025.
Tesla loses market share
Tesla’s Model Y remains the top-selling car in California year-to-date, but the company’s sales continue to slip, losing 8.5 percent market share compared to last year. This marks a full year of registration declines for Tesla in California, leaving the “alternative powertrain door” open for traditional automakers. Manufacturers and dealers have embraced this shift, expanding their share of battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales to 40.2 percent as consumers increasingly turn to exciting, new electric vehicle (EV) options.
Brands like Kia, BMW, and Hyundai have gained traction, increasing their year-to-date market shares by 1.4, 1.3, and 1.3 percent, respectively. Hyundai’s Ioniq 5 is now the third best-selling BEV in California.
Internal Combustion Engine vehicle sales down
YTD, BEVs currently comprise 22.2 percent of the State’s market share, showing a slight increase this year. When considering all alternative powertrains—plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), hybrids, and BEVs— these vehicles account for 39.4 percent of new sales in the first nine months of 2024, a significant increase from just 11.6 percent in 2018.
By contrast last year ICE-powered vehicles (gas and diesel) accounted for 63.9 percent of the state’s new vehicle sales share in 2023, losing about 7.7 points from 2022 numbers.So far in 2024 the market share of ICE vehicles sold in the state declined to 58.3%, says the report.
In 2023, combined sales of BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles in the state accounted for 35.9 percent of the market share (compared to 11.6 percent in 2018) and 39.4% this year.
“California’s franchised dealers are here to meet the needs of our customers, whether they prefer traditional gas-powered vehicles or are shifting to electric or hybrid alternatives. We’re proud to be at the forefront of the Nation’s evolving auto industry, providing the choices and expertise Californians need as they navigate their options,” says David Simpson, CNCDA Chairman and owner of Simpson Buick GMC Cadillac of Buena Park, Simpson Chevrolet of Garden Grove, and Simpson Chevrolet of Irvine. “At the end of the day, it’s about serving our communities and offering vehicles that best suit their lifestyle while supporting a greener future in a way that aligns with consumer demand and affordability.”
Brand Market Share and Summary
Among all powertrains, Toyota remains California’s preferred brand, with 215,402 registrations YTD and 16.3 percent of the market share.
Other YTD market share brand leaders: Tesla (with 12.1 percent market share) and Honda (with 10.9 percent market share). Honda also posted a noteworthy 11.2 percent increase in registrations this year, with 143,391 registrations YTD.
Still holding the position as California’s second best-selling brand, Tesla is grappling with significant hurdles. Its market share dropped by 12.6 points compared to last year, and Q3 2024 registrations fell by 3.5 percent from Q3 2023. This decline suggests that Tesla’s once-coveted appeal continues its downward trend, raising more concerns for the direct-to-consumer brand.
Five brands in the State have improved their registrations by 20 percent (or more) this year. These brands include Jaguar (222.6 percent), Buick (39.9 percent), Rivian (35.4 percent), Lincoln (27.6 percent), and Dodge (20 percent).
Model Segment Rankings
Unchanged from the last two quarters, California’s best sellers in the primary segments in Q3 2024 include the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, Tesla Model 3, Toyota Tacoma, Chevrolet Silverado, Toyota RAV4, Subaru Outback, and Lexus RX.
The top three passenger cars sold in California YTD saw variations from Q2. The Honda Civic is now the best-selling passenger car in California (with 40,741 registrations), followed by the Toyota Camry (40,025 registrations), with the Tesla Model 3 taking third place (37,219 registrations). The top three light trucks sold YTD were the Tesla Model Y (105,693 registrations), the Toyota RAV4 (49,810), and the Honda CR-V (37,759 registrations).
Regional Variances
Northern California car registrations dropped 15.4 percent YTD, while light trucks were up .6 percent. Southern California cars also slipped by 12.3 percent. However, southern California light truck registrations saw a jump of 4.2 percent.
Regionally, the San Diego County market has been the most insulated from declines, with a -0.7 percent dip in YTD registrations. The San Francisco Bay Area market saw the largest dip in registrations, posting -4.3 percent this year.
October 16, 2024 Facility expects to cease operations in the fourth quarter of 2025 Company will work with the state of California to supply fuel markets and meet ongoing consumer demand HOUSTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) announced plans to cease operations at its Los Angeles-area refinery in the fourth quarter of 2025 and will work with the state of California to supply fuel markets and meet ongoing consumer demand.
“We understand this decision has an impact on our employees, contractors and the broader community,” said Mark Lashier, chairman and CEO of Phillips 66. “We will work to help and support them through this transition.” Approximately 600 employees and 300 contractors currently operate the Los Angeles-area refinery.
“With the long-term sustainability of our Los Angeles Refinery uncertain and affected by market dynamics, we are working with leading land development firms to evaluate the future use of our unique and strategically located properties near the Port of Los Angeles,” said Lashier. “Phillips 66 remains committed to serving California and will continue to take the necessary steps to meet our commercial and customer demands.”
As the California Energy Commission’s analysis has indicated, expanding supply capabilities will be critical. Phillips 66 supports these efforts and will work with California to maintain current levels and potentially increase supplies to meet consumer needs. The company will supply gasoline from sources inside and outside its refining network as well as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuels from its Rodeo Renewable Energy Complex in the San Francisco Bay area.
Phillips 66 has engaged Catellus Development Corporation and Deca Companies, two leading real estate development firms, to evaluate the future use of the 650-acre sites in Wilmington, California, and Carson, California. The firms bring strong track records of solving complex redevelopment challenges and will collaborate with Phillips 66 in an advisory role to advance potential commercial development options that support the regional economy and other key stakeholder objectives.
“These sites offer an opportunity to create a transformational project that can support the environment, generate economic development, create jobs and improve the region’s critical infrastructure,” Lashier said.
About Phillips 66
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) is a leading integrated downstream energy provider that manufactures, transports and markets products that drive the global economy. The company’s portfolio includes Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels businesses. Headquartered in Houston, Phillips 66 has employees around the globe who are committed to safely and reliably providing energy and improving lives while pursuing a lower-carbon future. For more information, visit phillips66.com or follow @Phillips66Co on LinkedIn.
This week the Kings County Board of Supervisors unanimously approved an application for a $58 million heavy-duty electric truck charging station that would be built in Kettleman City along I/5. The project will be constructed with outside funding at no cost to the county. Trucking companies, freight and logistics firms in the state are under pressure to meet California fleet mandates that call for converting the state’s 1.8 million commercial trucks to emissions-free vehicles over the next 20 years. A number of manufactures are now offering electric big rigs. But they need a place to charge rapidly.
Some 14,000+ big rig diesel trucks per day pass the site
Kettleman City is in the sweet spot halfway between San Francisco and Los Angeles. Some 14,000+ big rig diesel trucks per day pass the site on I-5.Diesel trucks are one of the largest contributors to air pollution in Kings County.
SkyCharger, LLChas reached out to the County to request assistance in applying for funding under the United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration’s (FHWA) Charging and Fueling Infrastructure Round 2 Grant Program, which requires a local government to submit the application. SkyCharger is proposing the development, construction, and operation of a state-of-the-art electric vehicle (EV) charging station on Bernard Drive in Kettleman City. This 14 acre facility will serve medium and heavy-duty trucks (MHDVs) as well as light-duty EVs, addressing the growing demand in the region and supporting California’s Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) goals.
It is currently anticipated that an application for a Site Review Plan will be filed with Kings County by January 2025, with approval expected in April 2025. It could open in 2026.The development is anticipated to take approximately 9 months to complete.
The project will have no impact on the General Fund. In total, the project will cost about $58,210,390, of which the County will request CFI federal funding of $35,679,424. SkyCharger will be responsible for covering the remaining balance through other funding sources, including renewable energy and EV charging station tax credits, additional grants and rebates through Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), programs such as the Carl Moyer Fund via the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District, and sponsor equity.
The station is strategically located to support California’s goal of transitioning to ZEVs by 2045 and will facilitate a charging corridor extending from Oregon to Mexico.
The project aims to reduce emissions, provide economic and workforce development benefits, and address high demand for EV charging in the region. It will feature advanced energy resources, including a 1-megawatt (MW)/4- megawatt hour (MWh) battery storage system and a 3.86 MW solar canopy, supporting 56 dual-port direct current (DC) fast chargers.
Over 15 years, it is conservatively estimated to avoid 230,433 lbs of CO2 and tens of thousands of pounds of other GHGs.
Bakersfield project open
The Kettleman charging station will not be the first in the Valley with WATT EV opening an electric truck charging station in May of this year near Bakersfield on 119 acres. The company says this state-of-the art station features 16 dual-cord 360kW chargers connected to the grid and 15 single-cord 240kW CCS chargers, plus three MCS 1,200kW rapid chargers, drawing power from the site’s solar array. Significantly, the MCS chargers will bring down truck charging “dwell time” from hours to less than 30 minutes, said WattEV CEO Salim Youssefzadeh.
TravelCenters of America is also building a similar facility near Ontario.
The new 5-acre battery storage facility being built in the Visalia Industrial Park will not power up local companies but send contracted electricity to the City of Riverside.Ormat Technologies has signed a 15-year contract for an 80MW/320MWh battery energy storage system (BESS) to the SoCal city 250 miles away from Visalia.
The City of Riverside contract requires Ormat to bring the project into operation by the guaranteed commercial operation date of 1 March 2026, although the company said it expects to be able to do so earlier, by the end of 2025.
In today’s market for electricity, power can be generated not just by utilities like SoCal Edison but by a third-party under electric power agreement – a long-term contract between an electricity generator and a customer, usually a utility, government or company. Customers can often get a cheaper base rate from these agreements and the power can come from far away or next door.
Ormat develops, owns and operates geothermal energy projects, with additional business lines in waste-to-heat and energy storage technologies.
Energy storage comprised just 4% of the company’s total revenues in 2023, but Ormat sees it as a high-growth potential business.
The energy storage division opened in 2020, following the company’s 2017 acquisition of energy storage developer Viridity. Ormat decided to enter the market to broaden its revenue base and noted in 2020 that the COVID-19 pandemic impacted revenues from its geothermal power generation and development as well as waste-to-heat generation.
The company claims 100% of its projects under construction as of Q1 2024 are eligible for the Investment Tax Credit. The Shirk project in Visalia for the City of Riverside is ‘currently expected to be eligible for a 40% tax credit, Ormat said in its announcement this month. The project is called the Shirk BESS given its proximity to Shirk Ave.
“The Shirk project shows the continued progress that Ormat has been making towards aligning our strategic growth focus to capitalise on key target markets in the US, such as California, while also transitioning our energy storage business to become a higher-growth segment with a balance of contracted revenues,” CEO Doron Blachar said.
Shirk Battery Energy Storage System Project has been approved by the City of Visalia and is under construction at 7626 W. Sunnyview near Shirk.
Visalia and Tulare County will not get the power but they will get property tax.
Many automakers are reporting Q2 U.S. sales and deliveries this week. According to the website Heatmap here are some of the numbers.
Tesla Deliveries: 443,956 EVs, “a smaller-than-expected 5% drop,” but the brand is still losing its dominance. General Motors Deliveries: 21,930 EVs, up 40% compared to Q2 last year, and up 34% compared to Q1. EV registrations are up 17% YTD, “outpacing the industry average of 10%.” Sales of its LYRIQ EV were up 26% on Q1. Rivian Deliveries: 13,790 EVs, in line with expectations. The company still expects to produce 57,000 vehicles this year. Toyota (and Lexus) Sales: 247,347 “electrified vehicles” (including hybrids). EV sales for the entire first half of the year were up 68% and accounted for 38% of total sales volume, “an all-time best-ever.” Kia Sales: 17,980 BEVs, up 131% year-over-year. In June, overall U.S. sales for the brand were down 6.5% YOY, but EV sales specifically were up 125%, according to calculations from Inside EVs. Hyundai Sales: 38,657 fully-electric vehicles (plus 26 hydrogen fuel cell SUVs, fwiw) in the U.S., up 15% compared to Q2 2023. ONIQ 5 sales were up 51%. KONA SUV sales were up 26%. Hybrid sales are up 42% for the quarter.
The sales figures, while encouraging, don’t necessarily suggest EV growth will accelerate, analysts toldReuters. “We’re expecting this period of time to have bumps along the way for the next few years as the transition goes from early adopters to mainstream buyers and we’re going to see this happen for a long time,” said Sam Fiorani, vice president at research firm AutoForecast Solutions. “Some quarters will be up, some quarters will be down, but all in all, it won’t be as strong a growth as we saw over the last few years.
