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November 17,2015-

City Of Visalia Weighs Offer To Build Downtown Hotel

The City of Visalia is weighing an offer to build a new Downtown hotel adjacent the convention center from a Selma businessman Dwight Nelson,a well known developer and contractor who also owns the Selma Auto Mall. Without acknowledging the offer Visalia Mayor Steve Nelsen says the city is in no hurry.”If anyone wants to come in with a market-based offer we will listen, but we are not going to give away the store.”  The negotiations are behind closed doors.Mr Dwight Nelson did not return calls for comment. Nelson was the only known party to respond to city RFP.

Poll: Spending Expected To Be Up

The big package shippers UPS and FedEx are both predicting a busier holiday season with UPS expecting the seasons deliveries to be up 10% and FedEX predicting a 12.4 10% rise.
Meanwhile Gallup’s November update of Americans’ 2015 holiday spending intentions finds U.S. adults planning to spend $830 on Christmas gifts this year, on average. That is up sharply from the $720 recorded a year ago, and is significantly higher.

Don Sharp Sells Office Building To Evans Property Management

Local businessman Don Sharp has sold his 5771sf office building at 303 N West St in Downtown Visalia to Ed and Bruce Evans who will relocate Evans Property Management to the location.

November 15,2105-

Kern Oil Falls To Lowest Price of The year
Midway -Sunset Kern oil fell to $38.88 yesterday as the world oil market headed lower a as well. WTI oil trading in NY closed at $ 41.75 today meaning Kern oil is likely to be below $38 tomorrow,
Lower oil prices should mean more relief at the pump in California with the state average at $2.82 a gallon today compared to $3.20 a year ago.The trend in prices is down.

Holiday Shipments To Be Higher Says UPS,FedEx
The big package shippers UPS and FedEx are both predicting a busier Holiday season with UPS expecting  the seasons deliveries to be up 10% and FedEX predicting a 12.4 10% rise.

California’s Fall Field Crops Down
Perhaps not surprisingly,  production of California’s fall crops is expected to be mostly down this year over last. Fields crops like corn and cotton have been hard hit by the epic drought. USDA says corn grown in the state is expected to be down 21%,cotton down 18%,rice down 5%,potatoes down 5%,although sugar beet production will be be up 10%.

Raisins Fetch $1703 In 2014 Crop Year
USDA says this past year’s raisin crop reached 237,775 tons with an average price of $1703 per ton. That compares to $1619 a ton in 2013.

Almond Planting Boom Fed By Record Prices
CDFA reports that nurseries sold 96,000 acres of almond trees from June 2014 to May 2015 of which 72,000 acre were new orchards, about 75%. The boom in planting compares to 67,000 acres sold for the same period the year before of which 48,000 acres were new orchards. There were 54,000 acres of almond trees sold in 2012-2013 of which 35,000 acres were planted as new orchards. Total almond acreage is approaching 900,000 acres in the state.Growers are being encouraged to plant with prices  well over $3 per lb( $3.19) compared to $1.45 lb as recently as 2008.

American adults who are uninsured or on Medicaid smoke at rates more than double those for adults with private health insurance or Medicare, according to a study published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in today’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).

Data from the 2014 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) show that 27.9 percent of uninsured adults and 29.1 percent of Medicaid recipients currently smoke. By contrast, 12.9 percent of adults with private insurance and 12.5 percent of those on Medicare currently smoke.

“Smoking kills half a million Americans each year and costs more than $300 billion,” said CDC Director Tom Frieden, M.D., M.P.H. “This report shows real progress helping American smokers quit and that more progress is possible.”

The study reported that the prevalence of cigarette smoking among U.S. adults declined from 20.9 percent to 16.8 percent from 2005 to 2014, including a full percentage-point decline between 2013 and 2014 alone. The considerable drop in the overall adult smoking rate over time shows marked progress toward achieving the Healthy People 2020 goal of reducing the cigarette smoking rate to 12 percent or lower. Another major finding was that the average number of cigarettes smoked per day among daily smokers declined from 16.7 in 2005 to 13.8 in 2014 — driven by declines in the proportion of daily smokers who smoked 20 or more cigarettes per day.

The study found other differences in smoking rates consistent with previous studies. In 2014, prevalence of cigarette smoking was higher among these groups:

• Males (18.8 percent vs. 14.8 percent for females)
• Adults ages 25-44 years (20.0 percent)
• Multiracial (27.9 percent) or American Indian/Alaska Natives (29.2 percent)
• People with a General Education Development certificate (43.0 percent)
• People who live below the federal poverty level (26.3 percent)
• People who live in the Midwest (20.7 percent)
• People who have a disability/limitation (21.9 percent)
• People who are lesbian, gay, or bisexual (23.9 percent)

November 6,2015-

Disneyland Attendance Up 15%

Continuing the trend from previous quarters, Disney on Thursday reported domestic theme park attendance at Walt Disney World, Disneyland and Disney California Adventure was up 15percent for the fiscal fourth quarter, June 28 to Oct. 3, and 7 percent for the year, mostly driven by the crush of guests visiting the Anaheim theme park.- OC Register

LAX Traffic Up 8.14% In September

With a 13,37% increase in International visitors LAX overall passenger totals rose 8.14% .Domestic travelers were up 6.14%. – LAX

Organic Sales Up 18%

Organic produce volumes went up about 18% in 2014 and sales rose 19% — or more than a half billion dollars — according to scan data from FreshLook Marketing published in The Packer’s 2015 Produce Market Guide. Organic produce accounted for 6.9% of all produce sold in the U.S. in 2014, up from 6% in 2013.-  The Packer

Holiday Optimism

Sparked by increasing optimism around consumers’ personal financial situations, U.S. consumers are showing a dramatic increase in their spending expectations this holiday season, with 40 percent planning to spend more on holiday shopping this year, versus just 25 percent saying the same last year according to Accenture’s annual holiday shopping survey.

California Port Improvements

The U.S. Department of Transportation will award three California projects with grants from this year’s Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery (TIGER) program.
“Whether ports, roads or rail, California’s economic health relies on modern and efficient infrastructure,” Feinstein said. “That’s why I’m thrilled the Department of Transportation has once again decided to invest in highly worthy projects to expand transportation options and freight movement for Californians.”
The California awardees are as follows:
-$12.3 million to the Port of Hueneme to deepen berths, install heavier cargo lifts and extend a rail line up to the dock, allowing larger ships and reducing truck traffic.
-$15 million to the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority to convert an unused 6.4-mile railroad corridor through South Los Angeles to bike and pedestrian trails, linking the Blue Line, Crenshaw/LAX Line and Silver Line.
-$10 million to the San Diego Unified Port District to upgrade on-dock rail and expand yard capacity at the Tenth Avenue Marine Terminal, increasing capacity and reducing environmental impacts.

November 4,2015

Car Sales Up
“Light-vehicle sales increased 13.6% in October compared with the same period a year ago, according to AutoData Corp., with 1.46 million cars and trucks sold. It is the second-consecutive month that the annualized sales pace exceeded 18 million, putting the U.S. market on track for potentially the strongest annual showing in history.”
WSJ
Less Sugar
“The three largest soda makers, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and the Dr Pepper Snapple Group, are producing more iced teas, sports drinks and flavored waters to reflect changing tastes. Many schools and workplaces have banned full-calorie sodas, but allow the sale of alternative drinks.”
Migration News
Mortgage Rates Fall
Mortgage giant Freddie Mac said Thursday the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage slipped to 3.76 percent from 3.79 percent a week earlier. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages stayed at 2.98 percent.It was the 14th straight week of rates below 4 percent, and they are well below last year’s levels.
Freddie Mac
Trade Deficit Lower
“The U.S. trade deficit narrowed sharply in September to its lowest level in seven months as exports rebounded, a tentative sign that the worst of the drag from a stronger dollar may be over.
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday the trade gap fell 15 percent to $40.8 billion, the smallest deficit since February. Lower crude oil prices also helped to curb the import bill.”
CNBC

November 4, 2015 –

The value of California’s merchandise export trade contracted slightly in September from the same month last year, according to Beacon Economics’ analysis of foreign trade data released this morning by the U.S. Commerce Department.
The state’s exports of goods to foreign markets in September totaled $14.13 billion, down 2.2% from the $14.45 billion recorded in September 2014. By way of comparison, overall U.S. merchandise exports fell by 6% over the same period, while exports from Texas shrank by 13.7%.
California’s exports of manufactured goods in September edged down by 1.4% to $9.12 billion from $9.25 billion last year. Exports of non-manufactured goods (chiefly agricultural produce and raw materials) dropped by 6.7% to $1.65 billion from $1.77 billion the previous September. Re-exports meanwhile were off by 1.8% to $3.36 billion from $3.43 billion.
“All things considered, the September numbers weren’t too shabby,” said Jock O’Connell, Beacon Economics’ International Trade Adviser. “The environment these days for foreign trade is pretty grim. As Governor Brown might say, a 2.2% drop in exports could be regarded as a psychic victory.”
Still, California’s export trade so far this year is lagging behind last year’s pace by 3.1%.
A Closer Look At The Numbers
As always, Beacon Economics cautions against reading too much into month-to-month fluctuations in state export statistics, especially when focusing on specific commodities or destinations. Significant variations may occur as the result of unusual developments or exceptional one-off trades and may not be indicative of underlying trends. For that reason, Beacon Economics compares the latest three months for which data are available (i.e., July – September) with the corresponding period one year earlier.
California’s merchandise exports during this year’s third quarter totaled $41.17 billion, a nominal decline of 3.8% from the $42.80 billion recorded during the same period last year. Nonetheless, the state accounted for 11.3% of total U.S. merchandise exports in the latest three months.
California’s export trade is highly diversified. Eleven major categories of goods each accounted for at least $1 billion in exports in the latest quarter. Performance, however, varied, with only four categories recording year-over-year gains. On the plus side, Non-Electrical Machinery exports gained 7.3%, going from $3.55 billion to $3.80 billion. Agricultural exports rose marginally by 0.2% from $2.88 billion to $2.89 billion. Exports of Fabricated Metal Products rose by 2.2% from $1.03 billion to $1.05 billion. Exports from the Primary Metal Manufacturing industries saw a 90.2% leap from $.75 billion to $1.42 billion.
On the downside, exports of Computer & Electronic Products dropped by 1.4% from $11.03 billion to $10.88 billion. Transportation Equipment exports fell 13.5% from $4.93 billion to $4.26 billion. Exports of Miscellaneous Manufactured Commodities (a catchall category of merchandise ranging from medical equipment to sporting goods) were down 3.6% from $3.43 billion to $3.31 billion. Chemical exports sagged 5.2%, dropping from $3.64 billion to $3.45 billion. Food and Kindred Products exports continued to drift lower, down 9% from $2.45 billion to $2.23 billion. Electrical Equipment exports were off by 3.4% from $1.75 billion to $1.70 billion. Petroleum and Coal Products exports plummeted 32.9% from $1.54 billion to $1.04 billion. Waste & Scrap exports were off 21.6% from $1.13 billion to $0.88 billion.
Mexico continued to rank as California’s single largest export destination during the latest three-month period but with the value of exports nudging up only 0.7% from $6.42 billion to $6.47 billion. Exports to Canada fell by 10.5% from $4.74 billion to $4.24 billion, while shipments to China declined by 4.1% from $4.04 billion to $3.87 billion. Exports to Japan also edged lower by 2.9% from $2.91 billion to $2.83 billion. Shipments to Hong Kong jumped 26.9% from $2.21 billion to $2.80 billion. As a result, Hong Kong knocked South Korea (+1.7% from $1.92 billion to $1.95 billion) from its customary place among California’s Top Five export destinations.

November 4,2015-
New Storm Could Drop In Sunday

Early November storm brought cold rain and snow to the Central Valley with Fresno getting an inch of rain.In the Sierra there was good precipitation and snowfall as Tahoe area ski resort are now expecting to open in coming days. In Yosemite Tioga Pass is closed due to snow.and Badger Pass ski resort, not yet open, has some 9 inches of snow.

China Peak has 12 to 16 inches this morning.Today they say” We would love to be open by the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend, November 27-29, and will need at least a few feet of natural snow to make that happen, so keep your fingers crossed!”
On the upper Kaweah Giant Forest got 2 inches of precip in the past two days ( see chart). Terminus reservoir saw 1.25 inches from Nov 2-4.
Up at the top Mineral King got a good dusting of snow.  Nearby Big Meadows got about a foot of snow.

Meanwhile NWS says another cold storm is heading to California dropping down from Alaska late this weekend and moving south perhaps as far as last time to Central California.

October 29,2015-

California forecasters expect this fall’s first cold storm to drop into northern and Central California Sunday through Tuesday with the likelihood of snow down to 5000ft Monday evening in the Central Sierra.

Here are the forecast graphics from Sacramento NWS and Hanford’s NWS office.

There is some chance for light rain in the San Luis Obispo region as well November 3.

The last graphic depicts expected rain accumulation in the state Monday-Wed with a possible 1.5 inches in the Tahoe region.

Visalia Mall has leased the former Rick & Nacho’s Food Court space  to Triangle Drive In Burgers out of Fresno . Triangle Drive In has been making Burgers, sandwiches, Hot dog, shake/malts etc. for over 52 Years at their 50’s diner theme concept.  Their Visalia Food Court location opening  date is planned for mid-December, if not sooner says mall management.
Former Surplus City building still has some 6000 sf of space for lease says co-owner Harvey May who says a deal with a planned brewery to open there “vaporized.” It probably is the largest space available on Visalia’s Main St today.
Home sales continue strong in the Central Valley. The Central Valley pending sales increased in September to reach an index of 103.9, up 4.6 percent from August’s 99.3 index and 14.1 percent from September 2014’s 91.1 index. Boosting sales is continued availability of lower cost FHA financing. Earlier this year FHA reduced fees on new mortgages resulting in a 50% jump in originations from last year. In June the FHA originated 65,000 fist-time home buyers. FHA financing enables families with less than stellar credit get into a a home.

FamilyHealthcare Network will open a new health clinic in Traver in coming weeks next to the local school  on property leased from the school. It will be the first medical clinic in the small Hwy 99 town.
Dollar Tree To Visalia
The Kmart /Save Mart shopping center will get a 10,700sf Dollar Tree about where the old Albertsons building was, some 600ft east of Demaree. The project was approved by the city planning commission Oct 26.
….And Dollar General
Tulare County continues to permit more dollar stores led by Dollar General. The new Dollar general Tipton store will soon open even as the chain has stores in Tulare, Visalia, Exeter, Woodlake, Strathmore, Porterville and Earlimart. But there is more brewing says Tulare County officials with stores planned in Pixley, Orosi, Poplar and Springville.

Alfonso Lago who owns the Dairy Experts company is locating his  contract lab and dairy consulting business to Hwy 99 north of Tipton. The firm has been operating out of the COS Tulare dairy site but will now be locating a mobil lab and starting new construction on a dairy barn where he will help local dairies with research on custom feed mixes.  He uses COS ag students to help out.
FedEx Forecasts Record Volume This Holiday Season
FedEx Corp. (FDX) predicts it will move a record-breaking 317 million shipments between Black Friday and Christmas Eve. This forecast marks a 12.4 percent increase in year-over-year seasonal volume.