...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 7000 FEET...
* WHAT...Heavy snow Sierra Nevada above 7000 feet. Additional snow accumulations between 1 and 5 feet. Higher elevation could see up to 7 feet of snow. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.
6 day forecast shows Sierra precipitation
“Weak AR” for Central California Over the next week, the vigorous storms that hit Northern California in the past few days will ebb .An impressive AR led to Tahoe getting a nice blanket of snow with Sierra Snow Lab reporting nearly 3 feet in the past 7 days.
But now the Southern Sierra should get its turn with a round of precipitation including rain and snow. That includes up to 7 inches in the Sequoia National Park area.
NWS LA says “the next rain event will take on the features of a weak atmospheric river, with zonal flow aloft allowing for a stream of moisture transport.”
NWS Hanford posts “A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Sierra Nevada above 6,500 feet through 4 PM Tuesday. Accumulations of 10 to 24 inches are possible with up to 4 feet at the higher elevations. Wind gusts could reach up to 50 miles per hour. The probability of receiving 24 inches of snow by 10 PM Saturday is 55% for Tuolumne Meadows and 55% for Tioga Pass.”
On Saturday ski resort China Peak posted “As of 8:30 AM 4-6″ of wet snow. We’ll see the snow level move around for the next 48 hours, sometimes all snow, sometimes a combination of rain and snow, with the storm intensifying over the weekend, could be a fair amount of snow by the time we hit next week. We’ll update throughout the weekend with snowfall totals and look forward to opening on Friday, November 29.”
Here’s what Open Snow predicts for China Peak…just short of five feet
For skiers- Mammoth Mountain is already open posting a Dump Alert: 12-14″ of new snow last night.
The latest GSF forecast shows the AR streaming into Central California this coming Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
It’s a difficult time for many California winegrape growers. During the past couple years, prices have plummeted, and wineries have allowed contracts with growers to expire. This year, many of the state’s uncontracted grapes were left to rot on the vines.
Imported bulk wine has flooded the U.S. market and driven down demand for California-grown wines and grapes.
A downturn in wine consumption is partly to blame. But weak demand is not the only problem. During the past two decades, imported bulk wine has flooded the U.S. market and driven down demand for California-grown wines and grapes.
Here in Lodi, I can walk into my local grocery store and see bottles of imported wine sitting on shelves while unharvested grapes hang on vines less than a mile away.
In the store, the imports can be hard to identify. That’s because imported bulk wine is blended with homegrown wine, and as long as the imported wine makes up less than 25% of the blend, it can be labeled “American.” Consumers may inadvertently purchase these wines believing they are supporting California farmers.
The real tragedy is that the U.S. government incentivizes these imports. Since 2004, a program called “duty drawback” has subsidized bulk wine imports by refunding wineries for up to 99% of the duties and alcohol taxes paid on the imports. To qualify for the refunds, the wineries must export the same quantity of “interchangeable” bulk wine within five years.
The terms of the program give participating wineries tremendous latitude. “Interchangeable” wine is broadly defined as any wine that is the same color and within 50% of the price point. Furthermore, because wineries are given five years to find matching exports, any emerging shortages of California-grown grapes are quickly extinguished by bulk wine sourced from overseas.
The adoption of duty drawback led to an explosion of bulk imports from virtually zero in 2003 to nearly 400,000 tons in 2022. To put that in perspective, in 2022, California growers harvested 3.35 million tons of winegrapes, meaning the imports totaled close to 12% of the state’s production.
Meanwhile, during the past decade, data on California’s purchased grape crush, which does not include winery-owned acreage, shows that the rolling five-year average has declined by 535,000 tons, or about 15%.
This outsourcing of winegrapes is being aided by duty drawback.
The imported bulk wine ends up on American store shelves virtually tax-free, giving it a “substantial tax advantage over domestically produced wine,” according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the agency that manages the program. The tax break helps large importing wineries drive down prices, hurting small local wineries that do not have the economies of scale to conduct import-export business and must pay alcohol taxes on their domestically produced wine.
From 2006 to 2010, seven large wineries accounted for 80% of the bulk wine exported from California, according to the Gomberg Fredrikson Report. From 2018 to 2022, after a decade of duty drawback had reshaped the market, those seven wineries accounted for 95% of bulk wine exports, meaning the share of exports shipped by other wineries had shrunk from 20% to just 5%.
Duty drawback has done far more to stimulate imports than exports. In a 2018 review of the program, CBP found that the volume of bulk wine imported by the U.S. grew by 875% between 2004 and 2016. During the same period, exports increased by less than 6%.
The agency concluded that the “economic effects of the practice do not support the view that it is an effective or efficient export promotion measure.” The downstream damage to the domestic grape market far outweighs the benefits.
Later that year, CBP ended the program, but it was reimposed in 2021 after groups representing the beverage industry sued and a court ruled that CBP did not have the authority to halt the program on its own. Only Congress could do that.
Today, millions of gallons of bulk wine continue to pour in from overseas while California winegrapes go unharvested and rural farming communities struggle.
Duty drawback, as it is being implemented with wine, is an anti-local trade policy that has significantly damaged the California winegrape market. This destructive policy subsidizes the state’s largest wineries to replace California-grown grapes with cheap imports.
The program also allows importers to circumvent the environmental and social regulations required on California farms by importing wine from countries that do not have similarly stringent standards. And it increases carbon emissions by encouraging the shipment of tens of thousands of containers across the world in lieu of local grape purchases.
3 million Central Valley poultry destroyed in the past three weeks
California has more flocks affected by the virus than any other state with 23
H5N1 Bird Flu spreads to 335 dairies in California from zero as of Sept 1
USDA studies livestock vaccine
Flocks struck by the virus recently in Utah, Arizona and British Columbia.
Egg prices near double in California
Only days before Thanksgiving and the start of the holiday baking season, Central Valley’s poultry ranches are losing 3 million birds including a huge number of egg laying hens, broiler ranch chickens and turkeys with reports of new finds every few days. The virus is carried by migratory birds along the Pacific Flyway who visit the Valley this time of year bringing avian flu for a ride from British Columbia to Kern County. One of the state’s largest egg ranches was hit, located not far from the Kern Wildlife Refuge and in the heart of dairy country, suggesting the proximity and rampant increase in the virus in both cows and chickens may be no coincidence.
The increase in commercial poultry farm infections is matched by the spread of bird flu among dairy cows with 335 dairies in the state now impacted as of Nov 18, almost a third of the state number. The count seems to balloon every day in reports from USDA. Just a few months ago there was no virus reported.
The two livestock industries that cluster their animals in confined facilities are often just down the road from each other in the Central Valley.The Valley poultry industry has been on a similar viral timeline to the dairy farms coinciding with the annual bird migration. Is there a link?
The industry website Egg-News points out the question of spillover between dairy and poultry is not yet clear since “APHIS (USDA) has yet to release the results of epidemiological studies that presumably have been conducted on the transmission of H5N1 strain B3.13 in the dairy industry.”
In Kings County, the two new finds bring the number of poultry ranches affected to five – adding up to around 900,000 birds that needed to be destroyed.
USDA says H5N1 largely infects wild birds, with waterfowl such as ducks and geese being the natural reservoirs for H5N1 viruses. Most H5N1 viruses are highly pathogenic avian influenza, meaning spillovers into other bird populations can lead to high mortality rates, including domesticated poultry.
In Kings County, the two new finds bring the number of poultry ranches affected to five – adding up to around 900,000 birds that needed to be destroyed.
Central Valley dairies are clustered
This past Monday USDA reported new finds including California with six new commercial flocks hit by HPAI bird flu and British Columbia with 14 new cases, while Utah and Arizona each had one.The virus appears to be rampant in the Central Valley this week with the virus found in two commercial meat turkey flocks in Fresno County, involving 17,700 and 39,600 birds, a commercial broiler ranch in Fresno County with 259,000 birds; Two commercial broiler flocks in Kings County, involving 279,300 and 53,300 birds and a commercial broiler flock in San Joaquin County involving 29,100 birds.
In Kings County, the two new finds bring the number of county poultry ranches affected to five in the past few weeks adding up to around 900,000 birds that needed to be destroyed.
Besides livestock, as of November 15, 2024, the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) has confirmed twenty-six human cases of bird flu and 1 additional probable case with 14 of those workers in Tulare County where milk is the top farm commodity.
The Central Valley is home for both industries with animals transported in and out along with equipment and service vehicles going in and out of these large facilities every day.
Dust can carry virus
The industry website Egg-News this week pointed out that research shows that the infections can be transmitted over a distance of up to a mile on, for example, dust particles. Of course the fall is harvest time for a number of crops, including the nut industry, sending up plumes of dust in the Valley sky, at times associated with wind.
Egg-News points out that dairy cow-associated H5N1 viruses have jumped back into wild birds, and recent outbreaks in domestic poultry resembled H5N1 in dairy cows.
Egg News says that on a dairy “since the infection is largely restricted to the mammary glands, researchers believe that H5N1 is being transmitted to cows by contaminated milk equipment, particularly the milking apparatus that attaches to the cow udders. Transmission across farms is due to infected cattle movement and shared equipment and personnel across dairy farms.”
Condors inoculated
In an editorial this past week Egg-News said “APHIS Needs a New Approach to Control HPAIr:” They recommend that USDA adopt vaccination as a disease control strategy for bird flu, with promising results from clinical trials. In May 2023, the US authorized the vaccination of California condors against a type of avian flu that has been successful.
Also, the USDA has approved field trials to test vaccine that could prevent dairy cows from getting the H5N1 strain of bird flu.
The USDA approved the first field trials for the vaccine in September 2024 with the USDA’s Center of Veterinary Biologics (CVB) overseeing the trials.
At least 24 companies are working on the vaccine, including Zoetis and Merck Animal Health.
Advocates note the high cost of the influenza just in the egg market.”With domestic sales of shell eggs and products amounting to seven billion dozen, consumers paid an incremental $15 billion as a result of the prolonged and uncontrolled infection.”
Newcastle disease, which killed millions of birds, is now effectively controlled by vaccine.
If vaccines can save the US poultry and dairy industry over the next year, the industry may have to worry about who heads up the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) who authorizes vaccines for animals and humans. Nominee RFK Jr has made it clear – he is anti-vaccine.
USDA will start testing bulk raw milk around the country for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) say reports. The department said on October 30 that testing would begin in early November.
“Milk silos will first be tested in states where the H5N1 virus has been identified; bulk sampling will then be rolled out in states where H5N1 has not yet been confirmed. If bulk samples test positive, testing will be narrowed down to the farm level to better track and monitor the disease. Farm testing will continue until herds in an area are confirmed virus-free.”
Egg Prices
For now the consumer is feeling the impact of all this with a sudden runup in egg prices.
As of Nov 13 the USDA reports that large, white cage-free eggs cost about $5.26 per dozen in California. This is according to USDA market data for the week of Nov. 8.USDA says this is a “benchmark” price.The price is up from $2.81 a month earlier. That is approaching a doubling of the benchmark,but may not reflect retail.
The last time California eggs were this high was in February when California egg prices – cage-free egg prices- peaked at $5.59 per dozen .
This year the bird flu has taken its toll with the outbreak of H5N1, a highly transmissible and fatal strain of avian influenza, or bird flu. The outbreak started in early 2022 and rapidly grew into the largest bird flu outbreak in U.S. history.
Most recently, outbreaks affecting more than 2.84 million egg layers were reported in October at commercial facilities in Oregon, Washington and Utah, according to the CDC.
As of Nov. 8, the virus has affected over 105.2 million birds in the U.S. since January 2022, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The California egg shortage may likely have a pocketbook impact on holiday baking activity as we move into Thanksgiving.However a recent USDA analysis suggests consumers may not see a huge jump.
Large volume grocery retailers across the nation have launched their shell egg feature campaigns targeting holiday demand at relatively attractive price levels. Much of this is attributable to changes in the way shell eggs are being marketed with an increasing share (estimated at over half of all shell egg volume sold at retail) tied to production cost agreements not prone to fluctuation common in formula trading.
There are about 378.5 million egg-laying chickens in the US. As of last year there were 9.4 billion broiler chickens and 218 million turkeys processed according to the USDA.
Avian flu is a worldwide phenomenon.In the past two weeks, the first cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of the fall season have been reported in Albania, Great Britain, Romania, and new regions of Germany and Ukraine.
Despite the increase in US egg prices this holiday season, turkey prices are down from last year when supply was also affected by bird flu.
Across the country, a 15-pound turkey cost an average of $31.16 ($2.08 per pound) in 2024, compared with $35.40 ($2.36 per pound) in 2023. That price reduction represents a price decrease of 12% from last year to now,” a report said. The lower price comes even as a U.S. Dept of Agriculture report shows turkey production dipped more than 6% compared to this time last year.
Shasta Reservoir could get 15 inches of precip over the next week. On average they get about 60 inches in a year. If you live in nearby Redding California, you will live under an umbrella. Central California coast will get its first good rain.
Sierra Snowlab near Tahoe says “Big model predictions of #snow over the next 10 days, ranging from 3.5 to 7 feet. There’s uncertainty with the first part of the storm (tomorrow noon to Thurs night) regarding rain vs snow at the lab.
We’re expecting 10-20″ of snowfall by Friday am with more coming later Fri.”
Five day models suggest more than 4 feet of snow at Tahoe resorts
Floating offshore wind farmCalifornia continues to move forward with offshore wind awaiting the change in administrations
PUBLISHED NOV 14, 2024 5:24 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE
Both at the federal and local level efforts are continuing to push forward for the potential development of offshore wind power generation along the California coast. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) took another step forward for what could become the first floating wind turbines in the U.S. while the Port of Long Beach continues to move forward to become one of the leading assembly and staging sites for offshore wind.
BOEM conducted the first offshore wind lease auction for California covering two zones in December 2022. A total of five lease areas were contracted bringing in over $757 million for the rights and laying the groundwork for the start of the West Coast industry.
As a next step in the process, BOEM today published the California Draft Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for the five areas. It concluded that offshore wind development with or without mitigation efforts could benefit the local environment and economy. They concluded the mortality risk is low and not expected for whales in the areas while also noting the need to address large volumes of vessel traffic. They looked at the possibility of steps such as acoustic masking to help protect marine life but did recognize the largest potential risk is to bids.
This is only the second time BOEM has conducted a regional analysis of offshore renewable energy development and operations over multiple lease areas. BOEM reports it selected the approach because of the proximity of the areas and the anticipation that future project plans would be filed around the same time. The regional approach lays a foundation for the future specific analysis of individual plans while also accelerating the overall approval process.
BOEM reports the leases, which total over 373,000 acres have the potential to produce over 4.6 GW of offshore wind energy. With today’s publication of the notice BOEM is inviting public comments and starts a 90-day comment period.
Port of the uncertainty however comes in the timing. The comment period will close on February 12, 2025. Public meetings to provide comments are scheduled for January 28 and 30, all days after the new Trump administration begins. Trump has been a vocal critic of wind turbines and during the campaign vowed to block future wind energy development.
The trade group Offshore Wind California however issued a statement calling today’s development “good news and another important step forward.” It cites California’s ambitions to become a global leader for floating offshore wind and the California Public Utilities Commission which this year adopted a goal of procuring up to 7.6 GW of offshore wind power by 2035. The California Energy Commission is aiming for 2 to 5 GW of offshore wind power by 2030.
The Long Beach Board of Harbor Commissioners also took steps on November 11 to push forward in their efforts to become a local for the industry. The port has proposed a 400-acre terminal called Pier Wind at the Port of Long Beach to assemble and deploy floating offshore wind turbines. The Commission agreed to commit up to $14 million in matching funds as they also apply in December for a state grant aimed at covering the cost of design, environmental review, and community outreach.
Long Beach also authorized $6.5 million from the port’s capital budget to continue the effort. They will be proceeding with environmental documentation and project delivery activities while the grant application is under consideration.
The proposal for Pier Wind projects a construction cost of $4.7 billion. Work could begin as early as 2027 with the first 200 acres completed in 2031 and the additional 200 acres completed in 2035.
State and local officials emphasize they are continuing to move forward and are ready to work with the federal authorities. As part of the Department of the Interior, BOEM’s future depends on the pending nomination of a new Secretary of the Interior for the Trump administration.
Not all of California is going to get this wet between now and the end of Thanksgiving. But Redding California- right next to California’s largest reservoir(Shasta)- could see almost 9 inches of rain over that time according to one forecast.
NWS Sacramento is predicting it to start today, November 17 with snow expected in both Shasta and Lassen national park mountains.
Here is what UCLA scientist Daniel Swain writes in the past day:
Signs of some “big time” weather for TBD portions of U.S. West coast over next 10 days. A major AtmosphericRiver, & perhaps a short sequence of very wet ARs, will affect some section of coast between NorCal & WA–perhaps bringing very heavy rain accumulations. #CAwx #ORwx [1/6]
November 12 saw China Peak above Fresno sporting 5-7 inches of fresh snow according to the ski resort’s website- the first of this season.
The popular Central California ski run is using cold temps to make more snow with the expectation of more storms knocking at the door in the next several weeks before Thanksgiving. The resort hopes to open by November 23 for the season but that depends on continued cold weather to allow snowmaking to add to the pack from natural snow.
National Weather Service Hanford is forecasting a more significant precip-water plum arriving in Central California late this week with lower snow levels. Chances of snowfall accumulation reaching 8 inches by Friday is 50% to 70%.
Grant Grove expects heavy snow Thursday and Friday says the National Weather Service.
The Valley floor did not see much precipitation from the latest storm with Hanford receiving under a 1/3 of an inch as of November 11. But the Sierra saw its first taste of snow.
Here are the preliminary vote percentages in the Central Valley where Donald Trump won around 60% of the November 5 vote in most counties.
Inland California counties almost all voted for Trump and the coastal counties chose Harris in a dramatic contrast. Figures from California Secretary of State (see map).
Spread of virus grows as 233 Central Valley dairies hit
USDA says California poultry ranches have lost over 1.5 million birds to avian flu in the past few weeks with most of those in the Central Valley.The economic impact of the virus is now grown to include 233 area dairies along with what seems to be almost a daily increase in illness reported at poultry farms and nationwide at egg ranches.
In Kings County three commercial broiler farms were hit on October 30 and 31 with the unnamed ranches losing 104,500 ,305,500 and 117,200 birds killed to stop the spread of the highly contagious virus USDA announced yesterday.
Also on October 30 a commercial broiler operation in Fresno County was hit requiring the destruction of 204,600 birds.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported that on October 24, HPAI had been confirmed in a flock of 6,000 commercial broilers in Tulare County. That followed another situation when the virus was confirmed in a flock of 786,600 commercial broilers near Springville in Tulare County on October 16.
Then on November 4 USDA said a 48,00 bird turkey operation in Sacramento was hit just as Thanksgiving is approaching.
Poultry industry losses in the Central Valley from the fast spreading virus are mirroring economic losses in the dairy sector here.
The number of affected diaries in the Central Valley has grown by 30 from October 31 to Nov 4 from 202 to 233.
The number of affected diaries in the Central Valley has grown by 30 from October 31 to November 4 to 233.
The November 3 Milk Producers Council newsletter offers this sober assessment.
Especially devastating impact on milk production
“The bird flu is ravaging dairy herds in California’s Central Valley, home to about 16% of U.S. milk output. While the illness has hampered herd health and milk production on farms in other states, the impact in California has been especially devastating. By most accounts, milk production has fallen harder and cows have suffered more than infected cows elsewhere. That may be because avian influenza is infecting California cows that have already struggled through a very hot summer or because this is a particularly virulent strain. Whatever the cause, milk output is down noticeably in the nation’s top dairy state after holding firm in September.”
Pasteurized milk kills the virus and milk is safe to drink.
As of November 1, 2024, CDPH has confirmed nineteen (19) human cases of bird flu and 1 additional probable case. Symptoms are said to be mild and officials note that the current risk to the general public remains low.
Elections statistics show Republican gains in Central Valley
The latest registration statistics from the California Secretary of State (Sept 2024) show an increase in the number of voters who are choosing to register as Republicans versus Democrats compared to four years ago in the Central Valley.
Consider Fresno County’s 2020 registration that showed an approximate plus-33,000 edge for Democrats vs GOP voters. Now in 2024, that has declined to a 27,000 “Blue” voter edge.
In Tulare County, GOP voters outnumbered Democrats by approximately 10,000 voters in September 2020. Now four years later, the GOP “Red” voters enjoy a 15,000 plurality.
The trend is the same in Kings County with the GOP going from around a 4000 vote plurality in 2020 to about 5000 in the latest count.
In Kern County the same thing has happened with the GOP edge climbing from about 9000 in 2020 to 15,000 this year.
Over on the Central Coast in San Luis Obispo County the situation is reversed with Democrats now enjoying a 6000 registration plurality versus a 5000 vote edge in 2020. Historically, San Luis Obispo County had been a GOP stronghold, but it has trended blue in the past few elections
