But acreage still shrinks
The March forecast for the 2025-26 Valencia orange crop is 17.0 million cartons, good news for fans of this juicy citrus variety. If this production forecast holds, farmers will pick up to 2.4 million more cartons than last year.
While the acreage of this orange variety is the lowest in perhaps 90 years, other signs point to higher production likely this spring. This year bearing acres are down to 24,500 compared to 40,000 acres in 2012. In the mid-1940s California Valencia acreage was nearly 150,000 acres. But plantings over the years shrunk with urbanization in southern California.
Acreage has shrunk in the Central Valley in recent times as well. We produced nearly double the cartons of Valencia oranges back in 2012 compared to last year. In recent years, growers have experimented with plenty of the new citrus varieties taking their attention away from standbys like the Valencia orange.
More fruit on the trees
The most recent survey data indicated an average fruit set per tree of 657, a 19% increase from the previous year and 18% above the five-year average of 557. The average March 1 diameter was 2.555 inches, up 7% from the previous year and 5% higher than the five-year average of 2.445.
The Valencia orange was first hybridized by pioneer American agronomist and land developer William Wolfskill in the mid-19th century on his farm in Santa Ana in southern California.Wolfskill sold his patented Valencia hybrid to the Irvine Ranch owners, who planted nearly half their lands in its cultivation. This forecast was based on the results of the
2025-26 Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey,
which was conducted from January 10 to February 10, 2026.
Funding for the survey was provided by the California Citrus
industry.