In their July 9 weekly posting, NOAA’s Climate PredictionCenter says” chances increase for El Nino beginning July-September” in their latest update. The oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300 meters of the ocean) increased during June,” says the report.
The diagnosis shows a heating up waters near the equator that is strengthening as summer goes on leading to more scientific models forecasting a stronger El Nino pattern developing and now virtually none forecasting a return of a La Nina pattern that we have been in.
El Nino, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.
A stronger and earlier El Nino could lead to a wetter winter this coming season in California that would ease concerns over another drought year.