October 14,2020
The California Secretary of State recently announced this month that some 84.68% of eligible Californians are now registered to vote, as of Sept 4. Since the same time in 2016 – 60 days before the General Election- almost 3 million more residents registered to vote statewide. This percent of those eligible to vote is the highest on record. The numbers for Valley counties are up nicely as well.
The greatest increase in California is in Tulare County where new registration jumped 33% compared to the 2016 report – adding over 47 thousand new voters. Between 2016 and 2020 Kings County jumped from just 60% of those eligible to 70%, also highest ever.
Voters have until October 19 to register. For the final count – one more report before the election will be published. Voting began in California on October 5th, and this year Secretary Padilla urges” more Californians to vote early.”
Valley counties all saw a jump in new voters with Fresno County rising to 79% of those eligible compared to 70% in 2012 and 72% in 2016. In Kern County in 2012 just 65% of those eligible were registered and 68% in 2016 but now the number has climbed to 78%.
All four Valley counties saw a high percentage of young new voters from ages 17 to 25 year old -all higher than the state average.In Tulare County the number was up to 17% of all voters compared to a 13% average statewide. Kings was 14.5%.
What does this all mean for the ongoing battle between Democrats and Republicans in each battleground? Statewide, Democrats now make up 46.4% of voters compared to 45.2% in 2016. GOP voters dropped from 26.8 % in 2016 to 24.2% in 2020. No Party affiliation category climbed slightly over the latest 4-year period.
Kings has been GOP stronghold
You might be surprised that in 1992 Kings County Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 18,739 to 13,494. By 2016 there were 17,000 Democrats to nearly 22,000 GOP and about 8000 registered No Party.
In Kings as of September 2020 there are over 19,000 Democrats and nearly 23,000 GOP suggesting a gain for Democrats in the past four years. No Party jumped to 11,661 showing the largest gain of all.
In recent years Kings County has been a Republican stronghold with one of the highest percentage of GOP voters – 45% as of 2016. Demos and GOP switched places in this horse race around 2000.
Now the trend appears to be moving away from the GOP with Demos and No Party adding up to 54% compared to 40% Republicans in the latest report.
Demos gain in Fresno County
A much larger gain for Democrats is seen recently in Fresno County. In 2012 there were 157,000 Democrats and 154,000 Republicans – almost even. In September 2020 the numbers are 190,500 Demos and 157,600 GOP. Over the past four years Demos gained over 33,000 while the GOP registration gained just over 3000 – a10-fold difference.
In Kern County in 2012 Demos were 113,00 to 131,000 GOP members.By 2016 there were 124,000 Democrats compared to 132,000 GOP. In 2020 there are over 143,000 Demos and over 152,000 Republicans.
So since 2012 Democrats gained over 30,000 while the GOP gained 21,000. No Party in Kern now makes up over 20% of the electorate compared to 18% in 2012.
Registration jumps in Tulare County
Lastly, in Tulare County more voters have signed up from those eligible increasing from just 55% in 2016 to 71% now. In 2016 Demos numbered 47,000 to 62,000 GOP. In 2020 Demos are nearly 63,000 to 73,000 GOP – decreasing the spread between the two parties from 15,000 to 10,000. No Party numbers have climbed from over 27,000 to over 41,000 in Tulare County.
If you are interested in Visalia, Demos has gained here as well. Since 2016 Demos has added about 6,000 and the GOP 5000. The total now according to an Oct 9 report – Visalia is still a GOP bastion with about 22,000 Demos and 29,000 Republicans.
Enthusiasm to vote this election is high nationwide says Gallup.”Enthusiasm about voting has increased substantially among both major party groups since 2016, with 80% of Democrats and 75% Republicans saying they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year.”
Time to vote
Voters can vote by mail and ballots must be postmarked by November 3. If you deposit your ballot in a drop box- Kings County has 13 locations and Tulare County 12 open now – it must be deposited by 8:00 pm on November 3, 2020.