Slow growth has been the norm in SLO County for years.
The latest California Department of Finance report says the county grew by 925 people in the past year measured from July 2012 to July 2013.While the rest of the state grew by nearly 1.0% during same period,San Luis Obispo county, living up to its reputation grew by 0.34.
But growing by 925 people in 2012 is a boom compared to only391 people in 2011 and 746 in 2012.
That is about one third the expected growth at 1.0% according to Economic Research Associates that estimated back in 2005 that on average the county would gain 2700 new residents a year on the low end of estimates or on the high end – add 3654 residents every year from 2005 to 2030.
Fitting in with the cautious SLO policy to hold back residential growth at 1% or below the policy appears to have succeeded beyond dreams.
While the numbers clearly show there is little danger of exceeding that threshold a new consensus worries that without new supply the “average family” will not be able to afford a home here.
Of course the recession stalled everyone’s plans including home builders.
Nowhere is it clearer that SLO growth has ruled in SLO City than in a look at single family housing permits in recent years.
The 2012 city annual report tells the tale. From 2005 through 2012 only 181 new single family homes were permitted in the city .That is an average of around 23 homes a year.
There are around 20,671 residential units in the community. In its community profile completed in 2012 the city report listed the median home home price at $485,000. As of October 2013 the number has jumped to $570,000 according to California Association of Realtors.
SLO MO
Between the price rise and pent up demand – now 2014 looks like we will see residential projects break out of the ‘SLO-Mo’ trend. Already in 2013 Construction Monitor reports 50 new single family homes have been permitted in the city this year, double the past years trend.
A one percent growth trend in the city with its twenty thousand plus homes would be 200 homes.
Two annexations approved in past years allows development to move forward with an improving market and finally they are. Between two new plan areas in the south part of the city there are nearly 2000 homes planned.
In the Santa Margarita Specific Plan area along Prado and Tank Farm Mangano Homes is already single handedly breaking the 23 home built average of the past eight years and is underway with around 40 homes and a build-out of around 180 homes. “We will do about 50 homes a year” says Craig Mangano with homes in Serra Meadow selling “like hot cakes “ in the mid $500s.
Further south in the Orcutt Specific Plan area approved in 2011 activity is stirring as well. The plans call for around 1000 homes in a 230 acre area east of the airport. This fall Wingate Homes, presented as the Atelier Development got approval to move forward on the construction of 142 new homes.
The Tribune reported in October “This is a very good beginning of more development for our city,” said Mayor Jan Marx. The project is the first residential development in the area to emerge since a specific plan was adopted in 2010 and the area was annexed by the city in 2011.”
In the Orcutt development some 140 of the 1000 homes are planned to be in the affordable category.
Another big project could be filed soon. The former Dalidio land in the county is being developed near 101 off Madonna expected to include 500 homes to be processed through the city.
While SLO County experienced slow growth in the past year neighbor Santa Barbara County experienced a bit of a boom growing by 6133 or nearly 1.5% from July 2012 to July 2013 with a turn around in net migration into the county. The year before net migration was -3,161 people compared to a plus 2310 in the latest period. Better times could mean growth here too especially given plans to grow the Cal Poly campus, recently announced.