Outlook forecasts wet north and dry Southern California
Gasoline demand for the week ending December 14 is off about 5% from the same time a year ago says oil analyst Tom Kloza.
Kern County’s largest refinery,\ is now owned by Global Clean Energy. In May 2020, Global Clean Energy acquired the refinery off Rosedale Highway. The goal is to convert the refinery to produce renewable biodiesel fuel.
The company makes renewable diesel fuel by refining biofuels from the camelina plant and from used cooking oils.The he start-up phase of the project began in mid-November says a Bakersfield TV-17 report.
USDA reported Monday December 16 that two more Tulare County poultry ranches have been hit by H5N1 Bird Flu resulting in the destruction of all the birds there. The results were confirmed December 13 and 14.
The two unnamed farms include one broiler ranch where 514,0000 birds died and one duck meat farm where 41,000 birds were lost.
On December 10 another ranch in the county was hit resulting in the euthanizing of 320,200 broilers.
With these three recent ranches,Tulare County has now seen 9 poultry operations affected by the highly contagious virus with the total number of birds lost adding up to around 1.7 million since late September.
Both nearby Kings and Kern Counties I’ve also suffered the loss of millions of birds from the spread of this strain of bird flu.Kern County has lost 3.2 million egg layers.
Latest dairy numbers
Following an investigation by the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) and rapid disease detection by California Animal Health and Food Safety Laboratory System (CAHFS), the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) has confirmed H5N1 Bird Flu in 311 dairies in the last 30 days in California. Since California’s first detection of H5N1 Bird Flu in dairies, there have been a total of 645 infected dairies with 56 of those affected, fully recovered and released from quarantine. All quarantine released dairies will be placed on a surveillance list for weekly testing through creameries to maintain continued monitoring of the virus in California. Data as of Dec 17.
Another Kings County food company announces layoffs
Del Monte Foods will not operate their huge tomato processing plant in the Hanford Industrial Park this coming season, workers with the Teamsters Union have been told.
Instead 400 to 500 full-time union employees will be laid off with the timing to be announced in a coming state WARN notice expected to be published soon.
“They told us they are getting out of the tomato business since they aren’t making any money, ” said a union official.
Pictured is the Del Monte plant on Jackson Ave in Hanford(with the solar panels), just a country block from the Faraday Future plant
The massive 670,000sf building constructed in the 1970s will be sold, officials say, although the Walnut Creek-based company has not offered much guidance to the local community, say county sources.
Privately-held Del Monte Foods and has $1.73 billion in annual sales.Their brands include Del Monte, S&W, and Contadina.The company was founded in 1886.
Too much capacity?
The tomato processing business has been shrinking in recent years and includes the closure of the Kingsburg Del Monte facilities and the shuttering of the Olam tomato plant in Lemoore.
“California has a surplus of processing tomato capacity,” says Central Valley grower Arron Barcellos who sits on an industry board.”We have less of an export market than in the past” he adds, leaving too many processors to fight it out for a share of what is now mostly a domestic market.
Our high costs have made California exports too expensive on the world market, adds Barcellos, although California supplies over 90% of the domestic market that includes Mexico and Canada with products including tomato paste,salsa and ketchup.
If the tomato canning business is shrinking Del Monte’s canned vegetable business- once a mainstay in the US – is shrinking as well. Earlier this year the company closed two big plants – one in Washington canning corn and peas and one in Wisconsin processing green beans.
Del Monte Foods, Inc. filed 8 WARN layoff notices from Jun 2004 to Apr 2024 in Alabama, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Texas, Washington and Wisconsin. 1,067 employees were laid off in total from these layoffs.
Faced with bigger grocery bills, American consumers are increasingly turning to cheaper private label store-brand foods rather than branded products like those that Del Monte offers.
Sources say Del Monte is undergoing restructuring and faces a high debt load.
What does all this mean for the jobs that we are losing here in Kings County? The bottom line is that the overcapacity in the industry makes it unlikely this massive plant would again be a tomato processing facility.The section-wide property on Jackson Ave is one country lot over from the 1.1 million Faraday Future plant that also is a poster child for too much manufacturing space since they have made only 12 cars in the past two years.
Kings County just was notified that there is another food processing plant- Leprino East cheese plant in Lemoore – would close in the next year and also complained of high costs.The facility is to be closed and under a new owner could still process dairy products with all the infrastructure in place.
Meanwhile the Del Monte facility may not be another processing plant or even a food plant if it sells.That may not be all bad.
Lucky Kingsburg
In Kingsburg the Del Monte plants have been converted to other uses where there is demand. The former Del Monte plant has now been demolished and converted into a church. The company’s big warehouse facility in town has been purchased by a container making company offering steady employment to the workforce. Kingsburg Economic Development representative Jolene Polyack says there seems to be a local trend where bad news has turned into good news. Case in point is the city’s largest employer T-Mobile now employees over 1000 people in the former Kmart building in town.
“I feel like we have won the lottery in Kingsburg,” says Jolene.
Barcellos is worried about the Central Valley processing tomato industry facing profitability challenges like most other Central Valley crops these days.
Yield per acre
“What allowed the industry to thrive was that year after year we were able to produce more product per-acre” based on a continuing rising yield.
Now that trend is flat and even heading lower, he notes, as growers have converted to 100% drip irrigation and UC Davis research that helped increase yields in the past, is way down.
Yields have plateaued at 52 tons per acre in 2018 are now around 50 after rising exponentially in past decades for just 20 tons per acre in 1960.
“We are barely able to grow tomatoes under contract for a profit.” Water issues,the high value of the dollar ,disease and warming issues all compound the challenge.
Kings County remains one of the top production counties for processing tomatoes in California with plantings at 29,000 acres in 2022, falling to 17,500 acres in 2023 because of flooding in the lakebed and now rising this year to 26,200 acres. That’s still below the high of about 30,000 acres in 2018.
It’s not just growers but food processors in California have their own complaints about high cost and increasing regulatory pressure hurting their competitive advantage, says a rep with the League of California Food Producers.
Meanwhile, the workforce at the Del Monte plant here should get some help from the Kings EDC and job training program to adjust to the layoffs once the company informs them of just what is going on.
Caption: Del Monte plant on Jackson in Hanford is 670,000sf near the larger Faraday Future facility
NWS Handford says a storm system is expected to impact the region through this afternoon. There is a 50 to 80 percent chance of six inches of snow in the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet, with isolated chances for up to 8-10 inches of snow. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Sierra Nevada until 4 PM this afternoon.
2. A stronger storm system is expected to impact the region this weekend with a 40 to 80 percent chance of 12 inches of snow for the Sierra Nevada above 6000 feet from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. There is a 35 to 75 percent chance for a quarter of an inch of rainfall for the San Joaquin Valley from Saturday morning through Sunday morning.
To the north in the Tahoe region, the Central Sierra Snow Lab says Plenty of #snow is on the way over the next several days! Models have trended upward on snowfall totals in recent runs. Right now, we’re expecting 1-2 feet of snow with the possibility of 3 feet on the highest peaks through Sunday .Given the relatively cold temperatures expected, it’s likely that we’ll see lighter snow than our normal Sierra Cement.
3 million Central Valley poultry destroyed in the past three weeks
California has more flocks affected by the virus than any other state with 23
H5N1 Bird Flu spreads to 335 dairies in California from zero as of Sept 1
USDA studies livestock vaccine
Flocks struck by the virus recently in Utah, Arizona and British Columbia.
Egg prices near double in California
Only days before Thanksgiving and the start of the holiday baking season, Central Valley’s poultry ranches are losing 3 million birds including a huge number of egg laying hens, broiler ranch chickens and turkeys with reports of new finds every few days. The virus is carried by migratory birds along the Pacific Flyway who visit the Valley this time of year bringing avian flu for a ride from British Columbia to Kern County. One of the state’s largest egg ranches was hit, located not far from the Kern Wildlife Refuge and in the heart of dairy country, suggesting the proximity and rampant increase in the virus in both cows and chickens may be no coincidence.
The increase in commercial poultry farm infections is matched by the spread of bird flu among dairy cows with 335 dairies in the state now impacted as of Nov 18, almost a third of the state number. The count seems to balloon every day in reports from USDA. Just a few months ago there was no virus reported.
The two livestock industries that cluster their animals in confined facilities are often just down the road from each other in the Central Valley.The Valley poultry industry has been on a similar viral timeline to the dairy farms coinciding with the annual bird migration. Is there a link?
The industry website Egg-News points out the question of spillover between dairy and poultry is not yet clear since “APHIS (USDA) has yet to release the results of epidemiological studies that presumably have been conducted on the transmission of H5N1 strain B3.13 in the dairy industry.”
In Kings County, the two new finds bring the number of poultry ranches affected to five – adding up to around 900,000 birds that needed to be destroyed.
USDA says H5N1 largely infects wild birds, with waterfowl such as ducks and geese being the natural reservoirs for H5N1 viruses. Most H5N1 viruses are highly pathogenic avian influenza, meaning spillovers into other bird populations can lead to high mortality rates, including domesticated poultry.
In Kings County, the two new finds bring the number of poultry ranches affected to five – adding up to around 900,000 birds that needed to be destroyed.
Central Valley dairies are clustered
This past Monday USDA reported new finds including California with six new commercial flocks hit by HPAI bird flu and British Columbia with 14 new cases, while Utah and Arizona each had one.The virus appears to be rampant in the Central Valley this week with the virus found in two commercial meat turkey flocks in Fresno County, involving 17,700 and 39,600 birds, a commercial broiler ranch in Fresno County with 259,000 birds; Two commercial broiler flocks in Kings County, involving 279,300 and 53,300 birds and a commercial broiler flock in San Joaquin County involving 29,100 birds.
In Kings County, the two new finds bring the number of county poultry ranches affected to five in the past few weeks adding up to around 900,000 birds that needed to be destroyed.
Besides livestock, as of November 15, 2024, the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) has confirmed twenty-six human cases of bird flu and 1 additional probable case with 14 of those workers in Tulare County where milk is the top farm commodity.
The Central Valley is home for both industries with animals transported in and out along with equipment and service vehicles going in and out of these large facilities every day.
Dust can carry virus
The industry website Egg-News this week pointed out that research shows that the infections can be transmitted over a distance of up to a mile on, for example, dust particles. Of course the fall is harvest time for a number of crops, including the nut industry, sending up plumes of dust in the Valley sky, at times associated with wind.
Egg-News points out that dairy cow-associated H5N1 viruses have jumped back into wild birds, and recent outbreaks in domestic poultry resembled H5N1 in dairy cows.
Egg News says that on a dairy “since the infection is largely restricted to the mammary glands, researchers believe that H5N1 is being transmitted to cows by contaminated milk equipment, particularly the milking apparatus that attaches to the cow udders. Transmission across farms is due to infected cattle movement and shared equipment and personnel across dairy farms.”
Condors inoculated
In an editorial this past week Egg-News said “APHIS Needs a New Approach to Control HPAIr:” They recommend that USDA adopt vaccination as a disease control strategy for bird flu, with promising results from clinical trials. In May 2023, the US authorized the vaccination of California condors against a type of avian flu that has been successful.
Also, the USDA has approved field trials to test vaccine that could prevent dairy cows from getting the H5N1 strain of bird flu.
The USDA approved the first field trials for the vaccine in September 2024 with the USDA’s Center of Veterinary Biologics (CVB) overseeing the trials.
At least 24 companies are working on the vaccine, including Zoetis and Merck Animal Health.
Advocates note the high cost of the influenza just in the egg market.”With domestic sales of shell eggs and products amounting to seven billion dozen, consumers paid an incremental $15 billion as a result of the prolonged and uncontrolled infection.”
Newcastle disease, which killed millions of birds, is now effectively controlled by vaccine.
If vaccines can save the US poultry and dairy industry over the next year, the industry may have to worry about who heads up the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) who authorizes vaccines for animals and humans. Nominee RFK Jr has made it clear – he is anti-vaccine.
USDA will start testing bulk raw milk around the country for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) say reports. The department said on October 30 that testing would begin in early November.
“Milk silos will first be tested in states where the H5N1 virus has been identified; bulk sampling will then be rolled out in states where H5N1 has not yet been confirmed. If bulk samples test positive, testing will be narrowed down to the farm level to better track and monitor the disease. Farm testing will continue until herds in an area are confirmed virus-free.”
Egg Prices
For now the consumer is feeling the impact of all this with a sudden runup in egg prices.
As of Nov 13 the USDA reports that large, white cage-free eggs cost about $5.26 per dozen in California. This is according to USDA market data for the week of Nov. 8.USDA says this is a “benchmark” price.The price is up from $2.81 a month earlier. That is approaching a doubling of the benchmark,but may not reflect retail.
The last time California eggs were this high was in February when California egg prices – cage-free egg prices- peaked at $5.59 per dozen .
This year the bird flu has taken its toll with the outbreak of H5N1, a highly transmissible and fatal strain of avian influenza, or bird flu. The outbreak started in early 2022 and rapidly grew into the largest bird flu outbreak in U.S. history.
Most recently, outbreaks affecting more than 2.84 million egg layers were reported in October at commercial facilities in Oregon, Washington and Utah, according to the CDC.
As of Nov. 8, the virus has affected over 105.2 million birds in the U.S. since January 2022, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The California egg shortage may likely have a pocketbook impact on holiday baking activity as we move into Thanksgiving.However a recent USDA analysis suggests consumers may not see a huge jump.
Large volume grocery retailers across the nation have launched their shell egg feature campaigns targeting holiday demand at relatively attractive price levels. Much of this is attributable to changes in the way shell eggs are being marketed with an increasing share (estimated at over half of all shell egg volume sold at retail) tied to production cost agreements not prone to fluctuation common in formula trading.
There are about 378.5 million egg-laying chickens in the US. As of last year there were 9.4 billion broiler chickens and 218 million turkeys processed according to the USDA.
Avian flu is a worldwide phenomenon.In the past two weeks, the first cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of the fall season have been reported in Albania, Great Britain, Romania, and new regions of Germany and Ukraine.
Despite the increase in US egg prices this holiday season, turkey prices are down from last year when supply was also affected by bird flu.
Across the country, a 15-pound turkey cost an average of $31.16 ($2.08 per pound) in 2024, compared with $35.40 ($2.36 per pound) in 2023. That price reduction represents a price decrease of 12% from last year to now,” a report said. The lower price comes even as a U.S. Dept of Agriculture report shows turkey production dipped more than 6% compared to this time last year.
November 12 saw China Peak above Fresno sporting 5-7 inches of fresh snow according to the ski resort’s website- the first of this season.
The popular Central California ski run is using cold temps to make more snow with the expectation of more storms knocking at the door in the next several weeks before Thanksgiving. The resort hopes to open by November 23 for the season but that depends on continued cold weather to allow snowmaking to add to the pack from natural snow.
National Weather Service Hanford is forecasting a more significant precip-water plum arriving in Central California late this week with lower snow levels. Chances of snowfall accumulation reaching 8 inches by Friday is 50% to 70%.
Grant Grove expects heavy snow Thursday and Friday says the National Weather Service.
The Valley floor did not see much precipitation from the latest storm with Hanford receiving under a 1/3 of an inch as of November 11. But the Sierra saw its first taste of snow.
Here are the preliminary vote percentages in the Central Valley where Donald Trump won around 60% of the November 5 vote in most counties.
Inland California counties almost all voted for Trump and the coastal counties chose Harris in a dramatic contrast. Figures from California Secretary of State (see map).
Spread of virus grows as 233 Central Valley dairies hit
USDA says California poultry ranches have lost over 1.5 million birds to avian flu in the past few weeks with most of those in the Central Valley.The economic impact of the virus is now grown to include 233 area dairies along with what seems to be almost a daily increase in illness reported at poultry farms and nationwide at egg ranches.
In Kings County three commercial broiler farms were hit on October 30 and 31 with the unnamed ranches losing 104,500 ,305,500 and 117,200 birds killed to stop the spread of the highly contagious virus USDA announced yesterday.
Also on October 30 a commercial broiler operation in Fresno County was hit requiring the destruction of 204,600 birds.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported that on October 24, HPAI had been confirmed in a flock of 6,000 commercial broilers in Tulare County. That followed another situation when the virus was confirmed in a flock of 786,600 commercial broilers near Springville in Tulare County on October 16.
Then on November 4 USDA said a 48,00 bird turkey operation in Sacramento was hit just as Thanksgiving is approaching.
Poultry industry losses in the Central Valley from the fast spreading virus are mirroring economic losses in the dairy sector here.
The number of affected diaries in the Central Valley has grown by 30 from October 31 to Nov 4 from 202 to 233.
The number of affected diaries in the Central Valley has grown by 30 from October 31 to November 4 to 233.
The November 3 Milk Producers Council newsletter offers this sober assessment.
Especially devastating impact on milk production
“The bird flu is ravaging dairy herds in California’s Central Valley, home to about 16% of U.S. milk output. While the illness has hampered herd health and milk production on farms in other states, the impact in California has been especially devastating. By most accounts, milk production has fallen harder and cows have suffered more than infected cows elsewhere. That may be because avian influenza is infecting California cows that have already struggled through a very hot summer or because this is a particularly virulent strain. Whatever the cause, milk output is down noticeably in the nation’s top dairy state after holding firm in September.”
Pasteurized milk kills the virus and milk is safe to drink.
As of November 1, 2024, CDPH has confirmed nineteen (19) human cases of bird flu and 1 additional probable case. Symptoms are said to be mild and officials note that the current risk to the general public remains low.
Elections statistics show Republican gains in Central Valley
The latest registration statistics from the California Secretary of State (Sept 2024) show an increase in the number of voters who are choosing to register as Republicans versus Democrats compared to four years ago in the Central Valley.
Consider Fresno County’s 2020 registration that showed an approximate plus-33,000 edge for Democrats vs GOP voters. Now in 2024, that has declined to a 27,000 “Blue” voter edge.
In Tulare County, GOP voters outnumbered Democrats by approximately 10,000 voters in September 2020. Now four years later, the GOP “Red” voters enjoy a 15,000 plurality.
The trend is the same in Kings County with the GOP going from around a 4000 vote plurality in 2020 to about 5000 in the latest count.
In Kern County the same thing has happened with the GOP edge climbing from about 9000 in 2020 to 15,000 this year.
Over on the Central Coast in San Luis Obispo County the situation is reversed with Democrats now enjoying a 6000 registration plurality versus a 5000 vote edge in 2020. Historically, San Luis Obispo County had been a GOP stronghold, but it has trended blue in the past few elections
The US Navy is working on a lease of 920 acres of land around the NAS Lemoore base to a Massachusetts company who would construct a large 425 MW solar farm and build a data center the size of three Costcos on the base campus. This is the third run to lease surrounding land at the base by the government to produce energy that could help protect the facility power supply and offer resiliency. Similar projects were proposed in 2015 and 2023 but no construction ever happened. Now there is a new investor who could build this project that now includes a 600,000sf power-hungry data center – one of hottest commodities on Wall Street these days. A draft environmental document (Supplemental Assessment-SEA) published in June says a new lessee -Ameresco- could sell the generated power to regional customers, including the onsite data center. In return, the lessee would provide in-kind consideration in the form of energy generation to the Navy that would allow NAS Lemoore to work toward meeting both Navy and Department of Defense energy resiliency objectives. The project would include EV charging stations, a battery storage facility or BESS, backup generation/microgrid, and other facilities.
The final Supplemental Environmental Assessment is expected to be complete in late in November.
A data center is a facility used to house computer systems and associated components, such as servers, storage systems, networking equipment, and other hardware. It serves as a centralized location for organizations to store, process, manage, and distribute large amounts of data. Data centers are designed to provide a controlled environment with optimal conditions for the reliable operation of the computer systems. They have redundant power supplies, cooling systems, and backup generators to ensure uninterrupted operation. They also employ various security measures, such as access controls, surveillance systems, and fire suppression systems, to protect the valuable data and equipment.
The data center would be connected to high-speed long haul fiber optic network for receiving and transmitting data. The facility would be primarily powered by on-site solar and battery storage for most of the year and would be connected to grid power for periods of low solar energy production. The data center would be secured by fences and
gates and only accessible by authorized personnel or deliveries. Vehicles onsite would include employee vehicles, delivery trucks and service vehicles. During operations, the project site would have 20 employees, with staffing 7 days per week, 24 hours per day.
A key factor that contributes to the rapid expansion of data center construction in the US is digital transformation. As more businesses undergo digital transformations, the need for robust IT infrastructure to support cloud computing, big data analytics, and online services has skyrocketed, says one analysis.Federal incentives have promoted investments.There are no data centers in Kings or Tulare Counties.
Approximate Construction Timeline Although the draft says that construction of the overall project would be expected to begin in 2024 with data center operations most likely commencing in 2025.. th navy is now saying the part date has not been set.
The project can be constructed in a single or multiple phases that are determined by the data center customer. Data center development typically can include up to five phases of approximately 20-25 MW increments that may extend construction time through 2027.
History of leaseThe document is a Supplemental Assessment because the 2016 environmental study led to a lease of lands around the base that is still in place. NAS Lemoore encompasses 18,784 acres of Navy-owned land.On October 12, 2016, approximately 930 acres (i.e., Project Site) were leased to Liberty CO LLC for a term of 37-years (expiring October 31, 2053). The existing lease with Liberty CO LLC was then transferred to Bright Canyon Energy on February 14, 2019. In January 2024, Brightg Canyon was acquired by Ameresco, and thus, as of 2024, Ameresco is now the current lessee of the undeveloped land and hereinafter is referred to as “lessee.”
Under the Navy’s 2024 Proposed Action, the existing lease would be modified to allow the lessee to construct and operate additional resilient energy systems within the leased 930-acre Project Site. The existing lease allows the lessee to construct and operate up to a 125 MW solar PV system and associated infrastructure. The changes proposed as part of the 2024 Proposed Action would include the construction and operation of an additional 300 MW of solar PV systems (for a total of up to 425 MW) and an option to construct a data center, EV charging stations, BESS, backup generation/microgrid, and related infrastructure. Ameresco, Inc. completed the acquisition of Clean Energy Asset from Bright Canyon Energy for $76.8 million says their website. Ameresco develops, owns and operates renewable-energy projects across the United States, Canada and Europe. In California, its projects include battery storage installations, including a $1.2 billion, 537.5-MW project that was delayed due to COVID-19 lockdowns and resulted in the company declaring a force majeure in April 2022. Ameresco was contracted to construct the battery storage systems for SCE at the utility’s substations in Ventura and the Los Angeles area.
The environmental document says once construction starts iit will employ about 400 construction workers. A final SEA is expected before work begins.
