NOAA chart expects up to 7.6 inches of precip in Sequoia NP over the next 6 days Feb 11-17, grey on the map.
China Peak could get 66 inches of new snow by this weekend /about the same for Mammoth
NWS: Could be the “wettest system of the year so far“
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“Unlike the previous AR that targeted Northern California, we will see a significant amount of precipitation with this storm.”
NWS Hanford forecast discussion Monday said “The big story” is the atmospheric river event for later this week hitting the California coast. This setup is “very favorable for more rain in the Valley and foothills and Sierra Nevada snow.”
Latest probabilities have a 25 to 55 percent chance of an inch and a half or more of rain for the Valley total in this storm with the foothills having a 40 to 75 percent chance of 3 inches or more total in this storm. The highest probabilities have shifted over recent model runs to be concentrated towards Sequoia National Park.
Burn scars will also see a major impact from the rain with a 55 to 75 percent chance of 3 inches or more total except for the Borel burn scar near Lake Isabella which
has a 45 percent chance of 2 inches or more total which is still significant. These high rainfall probabilities increase the risk of mudslides, debris, and flooding for the burn scars that a flood product may be issued as early as this afternoon.
Concern is high this week in the Los Angeles area that several of the major wildfire areas may suffer significant debris flow from intense rain.Most of the rain is expected to fall on Thursday.
Hanford NWS says in the Sierra Nevada, we are looking at a 65 percent and higher chance of 36 inches or more of snow total above 8,000 feet for the storm. On Saturday, the storm moves out.
Another NOAA chart expects up to 7.6 inches of precip in Sequoia NP, grey in the map. So far this year, the Giant Forest station has received under 13 inches of precip suggesting this AR, like some others, can help boost overall numbers for the water year in a big way.
The storm promises to be a big snow maker according to the resorts with both China Peak and Mammoth expecting over 5 feet.
Sequoia Park: NPS photo
