Category: Business

-November 10,2022-

Is breakfast getting cheaper, a sign that inflation indeed, may be easing? Breakfast has to start with coffee and the price of coffee has been easing in a hurry both in the futures market and at your neighborhood store

Both Peet’s an Starbucks packages are on “sale” this week at about half  the price they had been a month ago. 

Coffee futures traded in the world market has plunged in the past month too.

Coffee futures that were above $2.60 a pound last Spring and $2.30 in September are down to $1.64 as of November 9- a decline of about 35%.

As of November 9,Arabica coffee futures fell to $1.64 per pound, touching the lowest in 15 months amid improving supply prospects and expectations of lower demand. World Weather said frequent rain and abundant sunshine had created a “pretty good environment” for Brazil’s 2023/24 coffee crop, raising expectations of a potential record crop in top producer Brazil next year. Also, better crops are expected in Central America, Mexico, and Colombia. At the same time, demand is set to decline amid slowing global growth.

3-4 ft of snow will open China Peak

Central Sierra Snowlab near Tahoe got about 3 ft in the storm in the past 72 hrs

Less pain at the pump – gas at $3.99!

Corcoran’s Pacific Tiny Homes exhibits at Fresno Home Show

Corcoran’s Pacific Tiny Homes business is strong as demand for affordable housing in California gears up. The company, founded in 2018 exhibited their products at the Fresno Home Show this past weekend to good reviews

Public hearing on 108-unit affordable housing project in Lemoore Lemoore Planning Commission will conduct a Public Hearing at its Regular Meeting Monday, November 14, 2022, at 7:00 p.m. in the Lemoore Council Chamber to accept public comment on a request by AMG & Associates to construct an affordable housing apartment complex consisting of 108 residential unitswith a community building, laundry building, outdoor pool, tot lot, and dog park on an undeveloped 4.91 acre site. The site, currently owned by the City of Lemoore, is located at the southeast corner of East D Street and Smith Avenue in the City of Lemoore.

-October 30,2022-

WSJ: Oct 30
Natural-gas prices have fallen more than 40% since hitting shale-era highs in late August, reducing the risk of budget-busting heating bills this winter for millions of Americans and potentially easing a major cost pressure for manufacturers.
The decline is due to warm autumn weather, record domestic production and gas-storage facilities that have filled up fast since the end of air-conditioning season. Now, one of the big drivers of inflation costs roughly the same as it did a year ago.
California average gasoline prices fell from $6.21 in late September to $5.50 as of October 24 says the California Energy Commission. That is a drop of 71 cents at the pump.

No back-up at our ports. The queue of ships waiting to unload at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach fell from a peak of 109 ships in January to four vessels this week.Descartes Systems Group Inc., says container imports to the U.S. in September declined by 11% from a year earlier and by 12.4% from August.
Shipping lines have canceled between 26% to 31% of their sailings across the Pacific over the coming weeks, according to Sea-Intelligence. In September of 2021 the average cost for shipping a container from Asia to the U.S. West Coast exceeded $20,000. Last week, the average cost to ship a container from Asia to the U.S. West Coast had declined 84% from a year earlier to $2,720.

Coffee cash prices are down to $1.74 lb vs $2.40 last Spring
December arabica coffee (KCZ22) on Friday closed sharply lower by -9.05 (-5.26%), and Jan ICE Robusta coffee (RMF23) closed down -29 (-1.54%).
Arabica coffee prices Friday extended the sharp sell-off seen in the past three weeks and fell to a new 15-month nearest-futures low.  Robusta coffee fell to a 14-month nearest-future low.  Coffee prices are retreating on demand concerns

DTN

Fertilizer prices head lower:The starter fertilizer 10-34-0 led the average price drop on five of eight fertilizers tracked by DTN in the third week of October, continuing to show a significant drop for the third consecutive week.

The average price of 10-34-0 came in 12% lower compared to one month ago at $759 per ton. DTN defines a significant drop in price as 5% or higher.

Two fertilizers recorded price drops of 2% including MAP and DAP. The average price of DAP came in at $930/ton while MAP was $986. The average price of potash fell by 1% to $863/ton. The price of UAN28 dropped fractionally to $576/ton.
Zumper

Rent prices begin course-correcting: October report reveals significant price drops throughout much of the country. National one-bedroom median rent is down 0.8% over last month, to $1,491 and the two-bedroom median is down 0.7% to $1,832. More than half the cities on our list posted month-over-month declines and 19 cities remained flat, leaving just 20% of Zumper’s top 100 list with month-over-month increases. This slowdown is showing up in our year-over-year figures, too: After 12 straight months of double-digit year-over-year jumps, the national median is up a slightly more reasonable 9.2% over October of last year.
This reversal of widespread price hikes is fueled by several factors, including rising vacancy rates in some markets, a return to more typical seasonal moving patterns and, above all, fear of recession.

Used Car Prices

After rising to record levels, used car prices are starting to fall.
They dropped 4.3% in September according to the Consumer Price Index, South Region report. That dip was by far the biggest change of 2022.
This price drop is enough to cover the rise in interest rates this year.

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index falls from a high this July

-October 27,2022-

Gee, it looks like rain. GFS weather models are showing a series of storms coming into northern California offering the first snowfall in the Sierra.One model shows 5 precip events in the first half of November and one spreading across most of the state as soon as November 3.

Today,NOAA shows this 7-day precipitation  forecast that would surely be good news for the parched Golden State.

2021 Crop Ranking: Number 1 Kern

Number 2 Tulare / Number 3 Fresno

-October 27,2022-

Bragging rights for top county in ag production in the nation in 2021 goes to Kern County followed by Tulare County and Fresno County coming in third, it was learned this week.

Fresno County’s total gross ag production value for 2021 was $8,085,567,000 – an increase of $117,167,000 or 1.47% above the previous year’s revised total of $7,968,400,000. The announcement came out this week.

Almonds continue to be the leading agricultural commodity in Fresno County with a gross value of $1,441,392,000 which represents 17.8% of the total gross value of all crops produced in 2021. The total gross value of grapes remained in the number two spot at $1,348,592,000, followed by pistachios at $722,064,000.

Tulare County at $8.089 billion in 2021 edged Fresno. The number was a record for Tulare County, the Ag Commissioner reported recently.That is more than 13% higher than 2020 and an increase of almost one billion dollars. Milk was the top crop followed by citrus.

Number one ag county was Kern County at $8.34 billion with grapes the number one crop followed by citrus.

-October 25,2022-

LA-based YS Industries has proposed building six new warehouse buildings at the southwest corner of Riggin and Shirk in the Visalia Industrial Park. In a filing with the city site-plan review process this week, the development company said the buildings would add up to over 1.5 million sq ft. Tenants for the buildings have not been identified.

The site was recently purchased by the company – about 78 acres. A little less than half the property was a dairy that will be relocated, the last farm property south of Riggin next to the city’s booming industrial area.

The size of the new buildings are 331,840, 188,020, 188,020,297,160,297,160 and 250,880sf. This would be the third project for the company in Visalia.

Spokesman for YS Industries Freddie Molina says he hopes to be under construction in January on about half the acreage – the east side of the property since the dairy to the west will remain for another year. The property needs to be annexed into the city.

Molina says another 356,000sf tilt-up building nearby on Clancy is nearing completion and should be ready for occupancy in December of this year. He expects to have a tenant in place by then suggesting demand is still good despite economic jitters across the country.

“We are looking at three proposals to lease the building,” he says.

Two twin buildings on Riggin are already filled.

caption” Twin tilt-up industrial buildings in Visalia Industrial Park

Oct. 12, 2022, Exeter, Calif. – The California Citrus Mutual Marketing Committee  – comprised of growers, shippers, and marketers – anticipates the 2022-23 Navel Orange crop will be approximately 10% over the previous season’s utilized production.  At below average, the upcoming season crop is expected to be very similar to the previous season with excellent fruit quality and sizing.   Preliminary maturity tests show that the crop is progressing very well with high sugar content that well exceeds the “California Standard” for sweetness.

The Mandarin crop – including Clementines, Tangos, Murcotts, and other seedless varieties – is also progressing well in terms of quality and fruit size. The Committee estimates that the Mandarin crop will be up by as much as 30% over the previous season, but still well below average production levels and nearly 30% below the 2020-21 record-breaking large crop.

“The high quality of this crop is the silver lining of a very costly growing season,” says CCM President Casey Creamer.

“Like many Americans, growers are faced with rising inflation and increasing costs. The cost to grow and ship California citrus has more than doubled in the past ten years.  Since 2020, growers’ costs have increased over $1,000 per acre and in the last year alone, costs have gone up 25% with fertilizer, fuel, and water being the main drivers. We also expect higher costs on the packing and shipping side this season largely due to increased transportation and labor costs.

“Despite these challenges, the industry is optimistic for the season ahead.  The 2022-23 crop will deliver what consumers have come to love and expect from California citrus – a delicious, sweet Navel orange and Mandarin that is unrivaled by the rest of the world,” says Creamer.

The California Navel orange crop will start by the end of October followed by Mandarins in early November.

-October 20,2022-

Residential construction enjoyed a torrid pace during the first half of this year. But new home permits have slowed since and appear to be hitting the brakes as of September. The City of Visalia permitted just 18 new homes in September 2022 compared to 50 in September 2021.

For the year so far, new home building is now down from 2021 by 6% with 490 homes built vs 524 through the first nine months of last year.

Interest rates appear to be a key factor. Wells Fargo is offering a 6.5% mortgage rate this month- double what it was a year ago and driving up the cost of a monthly payment.

The slowdown is affecting existing home sales too, the latest MLS report shows. In September, Visalia recorded 109 sold homes vs 160 in September 2021. Pending listings were lower as well with 117 in September 2022 vs 156 in September 2021.There are more homes on the market in Visalia, the active listing number shows.

Developers in Southern California are doing the same thing with 21 percent fewer permit approvals in the last two months according to reports.

How about multi-family? Visalia developers are still building way more units this year than in the past.So far this year Visalia has permitted 483 apartment units vs 130 over the same period last year.