Market Watch: Bubble or Boom?

May 11,2018-

Egg prices down but fuel, lumber and housing prices climb

California egg price are still higher than they were this time last year but at least they have calmed down from a month ago.U.S. egg exports jumped almost 50% last year — in part due to an avian flu outbreak in South Korea affecting all parts of the US .Then there was Easter demand back in the USA, that is now behind us.

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Then there is lumber – you know, 2 by 4s. Lumber prices have nearly doubled in the past year propelled by a trade dispute with Canada that is helping to raise the cost of housing as well as pumping up the cost of newsprint for newspaper production.

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures contract for the softwood two-by-fours used in framing houses closed at its highest price ever on Tuesday of this week says Bloomberg.Last fall the Trump administration imposed 20 percent tariffs on softwood lumber from Canada and U.S. prices have gone up 22 percent over that time.

Back on newspapers, one small daily in Florida noted how the increase is impacting them.”This month, the U.S. government piled huge tariffs onto the imports of newsprint from Canada, including those from our biggest supplier. As a result, the price will jump from $600 to $800 for every ton, and we use about 17,000 tons every year.”

“That increase is more than 30 percent, and would add more than $3 million to the Tampa Bay Times’ annual newsprint bill.”Nothing fake about that news.

up she goes
up she goes

And everyone is feeling the impact of oil prices affecting how much it cost to deliver products and just drive to work.The latest CPI index published May 10 says US gasoline prices are up 13.4% from a year earlier.

California diesel is selling at about $3.92 average this week, up almost $1 from year ago. Only 20% of that increase is taxes. The hauling produce price from California to eastern US markets like NY surged to a 40-year high in the 4th quarter of 2017 reported USDA’s Specialty Crops Market News division. Truckloads to NY filled with strawberries hit $10,000 a load ,now around $8500 a load this week, well above year ago.The average rate in the 2nd quarter of 2017 to NY was $6850 says USDA.

wood inflation
wood inflation

Now consider housing.The most recent S&P/Case-Shiller national index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5% and was up 6.3% compared to a year ago in February. The 20-city index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.8% and was 6.8% higher than a year ago.

So what has happened with your mortgage? Today Wells Fargo’s rate to refinance a home is 4.87,4.93APR. On June 1, 2017 rates were closer to 3.9%. So your mortgage rate is up 25% from a year ago.

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