August 22,2014
Wither El Nino? Ag weather forecaster Alan Fox who writes a weather blog for California’s avocado growers has weighed in on El Nino and its strength and timing.This month he says the “current El Niño is expected to remain weak according to the latest guidance from the CFS2 seasonal forecast model. Therefore, we should not expect to see a well developed southern storm track. However, with sea surface temperatures remaining above normal, we expect plenty of stationary upper lows to develop which would tend to support rains into central and southern California through the fall and most of December. In addition from January through March 2015, CFS2 guidance suggest abnormally wet conditions in central and southern California.” This week ( Aug 21) NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated their forecast maps showing this view of coming months( Sept/Oct Nov) potential showing the enhanced probability of above average rain in middle and southern California.
