September 6,2015-
A respected weather blogger Daniel Swain of Stanford points to the NOAA weather forecasts for this winter (see map) as El Nino heats up the tropical Pacific waters to more than 2 degrees hotter than usual and strengthening. This excerpt from the California Weather Blog is dated September 2.
The present very strong El Niño is expected to substantially strengthen the subtropical jet stream and associated low-latitude storm track near California this winter, which will bring the potential for more frequent and dynamically stronger systems than would typically occur during the December-March period. Further, water temperatures along the immediate Pacific coastline are expected to remain very warm through the coming winter, which will likely increase the amount of lower-atmospheric moisture available to California-bound storm systems (and perhaps also increase near-surface instability). All of this suggests that there could be a substantially increased risk of precipitation-related hazards this winter in California, including flooding and landslides.
