Weakness in travel sector seen here
South Valley counties including Fresno, Kings, Tulare and Kern all reported higher jobless rates month over month and year over year in June 2025. California too reported the same trends as employers shed 6,100 jobs in June. California’s unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.4 percent according to the latest Employment Development Department (EDD) data that comes from two separate surveys. Ofcourse Valley counties reported double or nearly double this 5.4% jobless rate (the highest in the nation) but all jurisdictions are reporting a negative trend over time.
Economists are watching the US and California jobless rates for signs that the economy is either growing or shrinking. This latest snapshot of the Valley’s nonfarm economy is registering a slight downturn.
In the Valley there appears to be weakness in travel and leisure spending that impacts demand for hotels, resorts and entertainment sectors.
Drilling down, Kern County reported more farm jobs year over year in June but big declines in professional and business service, and a drop seen in manufacturing, mining as well as construction and leisure/hospitality services.
The unemployment rate in Kern County was 9.6 percent in June 2025, up from a revised 8.7 percent in May and above the year-ago estimate of 9.0 percent.
In Fresno County the unemployment rate was 8.5 percent in June 2025, up from a revised 7.8 percent in May 2025, and above the year-ago estimate of 7.8 percent. Fresno had a year over year increase in nonfarm employment – up 7800 jobs but 600 fewer farm jobs. Health and education jobs soared by 5200 and there were 2000 more local government jobs.Federal government jobs fell by 100.
Like the other Valley counties, Fresno reported a drop in the Leisure services /Hospitality sector – down 1300. Also we see a decline in professional and business services by 1000 jobs.
The unemployment rate in Kings County was 9.7 percent in June 2025, up from a revised 8.7 percent in May and above the year-ago estimate of 9.0 percent.
Again in this county there were losses in Leisure/Hospitality, down 300 year over year.There were 400 more farm jobs reported between June 2024 and June 2025.
In Tulare County, the unemployment rate was 10.7 percent in June 2025, up from a revised 9.9 percent in and above the year-ago estimate of 10.2 percent. The county shed jobs in manufacturing year over year, down by 500 as well as 200 fewer construction jobs. There were also 500 fewer Business and Professional service jobs nad 100 less in the hospitality sector.. On the plus side there were 2400 more farm jobs in June 2025 compared to June 2024.
One might figure the losses in the hospitality industry in the Central Valley might be due to a reported decline in travel both domestically and internationally but in California as a whole, the EDD reports that Leisure and Hospitality jobs statewide were up 4300 month over month and up 2700 year over year.
Also statewide, Private Education and Health Services (+9,900) posted a gain for the 41st consecutive month, a similar trend to that in the Valley
The largest gains were in Health Care and Social Assistance (+2,700). This includes jobs in continuing care retirement communities and assisted living facilities, and nursing and residential care facilities, partly attributed to California’s aging population.
Professional and Business Services (-9,900) posted the State’s largest month-over loss as jobs declined in administrative and support services and temporary employment services. Losses also occurred in accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and payroll services, and computer systems design.
This year California tourism is projected to see a slight decline, estimated at 0.7% in overall visitor volume but down in international travel numbers due to a strong US dollar and negative sentiment towards the US over trade issues.
There appears to be less domestic travel by air this year. LAX reported a 5% decline in domestic passenger traffic in May along with a 2.7% drop in international passengers.
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