December 31,2018
The closely watched S&P 500 Index will be down this year despite predictions from major investor houses that it would trend higher in 2018. Today, the last day of the year looks like the index will end below but near 2500. It started 2018 at just below 2700.
After a gain of 17% in 2017 most strategists thought the Standard & Poor’s 500 index had another 10% or so to rise in 2018. They were wrong.
JP Morgan had predicted the S&P to be around 3000 by the end of 2018 and all 8 houses surveyed intros chart had expected the index to be up 5 to 16% ( see chart).
So now what? With the trade war issue still hanging over us Barrons reports that “David Kostin, Goldman Sachs ’ chief U.S. equity strategist, places his 2019 S&P target at 2855. That’s a weighted average of his bear-, base-, and bull-case scenarios. Bank of America Merrill Lynch quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian has a year-end target of 2900. RBC Capital Markets’ Lori Calvasina also has a 2900 price target for 2019.”
All are pretty pessimistic. Others are more bullish.
USA today recently summarized the following. “While Wall Street pros expect 2019 to be another volatile year with plenty of challenges, they also expect stocks to mount a rebound after the market’s worst December performance since the Great Depression.
The average prediction is for a hefty gain of 25 percent in the S&P 500 next year, according to Bloomberg, citing year-end forecasts from stock pros at 19 Wall Street banks.
Millions of American have index funds or ETFs tied to the S&P 500, so its fate shapes how retirement and other savings accounts perform during the year. “