New Vehicle Sales Dip in June to Close Out a Down First Half of 2019, Forecasts Edmunds
Although sales are down slightly year over year, analysts predict a SAAR of 17.2 million as automakers, dealers take steps toward rightsizing mounting inventory
SANTA MONICA, CA — June 27, 2019 — The car shopping experts at Edmunds forecast that 1,501,158 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in June for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.2 million. This reflects a 5.4% decrease in sales from May 2019, and a 3.3% decrease from June 2018. 2019 sales through June are expected to be down by 2.5% year over year.
“June auto sales aren’t hitting the same levels that they did last year, but they aren’t dropping off a cliff either,” said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds’ manager of industry analysis. “The strength of the economy has kept retail demand in decent shape despite the higher interest rates, rising vehicle costs and other headwinds that have been placing pressure on the new vehicle market so far this year, but we’re expecting to see the industry continue to settle into a slower sales pace as we head into the rest of 2019.”
Although Edmunds analysts predict a SAAR above 17 million for the third time of the year in June, they caution that these numbers might be slightly propped up by automakers falling back into old habits when faced with mounting inventory levels.
“Old vehicles are stacking up on dealer lots, and automakers are relying on fleet sales a little more than they probably should to clear them out,” said Acevedo.
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.4 million vehicles in June 2019, with fleet transactions accounting for 20.3% of total sales. An estimated 3.4 million used vehicles will be sold in June 2019, for a SAAR of 39.4 million (compared to 3.5 million — or a SAAR of 39.6 million — in May).
Auto Loan Interest Rates Hit 2019 Low in June, According to Edmunds Analysis
Analysts say car shoppers get a break for the second month in a row as automakers sweeten deals to move aging inventory
SANTA MONICA, CA — July 2, 2019 — The average interest rate for a new-vehicle loan dropped for the second month in a row in June, hitting its lowest level so far this year. According to the car shopping experts at Edmunds, the annual percentage rate (APR) on new financed vehicles averaged 6% in June, compared to 6.1% in May. Edmunds data reveals that more shoppers received interest rates between 2 to 5% in June compared to any other month so far in 2019.
“The summer selldown is officially in full swing, and car shoppers are finally starting to find the price breaks they’ve been hoping for,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of industry analysis. “While we’re not talking about the dramatic discounts you could find just a few years ago, it’s clear automakers are realizing if they want to sell new cars at record-high prices, they’re going to have to do something to entice the average consumer.”
Caldwell noted one reason car shoppers are likely finding better deals on interest rates is because automakers and dealers are becoming increasingly desperate to sell lingering 2018 models. Edmunds estimates 5.5% of new vehicles sold in June were 2018 models, the highest level of outgoing model-year sales of any June in Edmunds’ records, dating back to 2002.
“2020 model-year vehicles are going to be showing up in just a few weeks, and no new-car dealer wants to have a pack of three different model-year vehicles hanging out together on the lot competing for attention,” Caldwell said. “And the longer these 2018 models sit there, the more expensive they get for dealers to move, so there’s certainly a sense of urgency.”