-March 5,2022-
Californians continue to drink less milk, says a recent USDA report.Tulare County dairymen and suppliers in the nation’s top milk county, are paying attention.
Fluid milk sales in California posted another year- over-year decline in 2021. Disposition of fluid milk products—deliveries of packaged Class I products to retail, institutional, or wholesale outlets—in Federal Order 51 declined by 4.6 percent on a daily average basis from 2020.
Reduced fat milk suffered the largest decline from 2020, decreasing 8 percent on a daily average basis. Other major conventional milk categories declined as well, including whole milk (5.1 percent), low fat milk (3.2 percent), and skim milk (6.5 percent). Additionally, organic milk products including regular and flavored organic milks—dipped 1.9 percent from 2020 on a daily average basis. Although organic milk sales declined from 2020 to 2021, they sit well above 2019 levels by 15.7 percent.
Beginning in 2010, total fluid milk sales started declining, and if current trends persist, fluid milk utilization in California will decrease by an estimated 23% between 2020 and 2030.
A California Dairy Quota Research paper in 2019 writes that “per capita fluid milk sales have been in decline for decades, and in recent years, the decay has accelerated. In the 1980s, average per capita fluid milk consumption decreased by 1.8 lbs per year. In the 1990s, consumption fell by an average of 2.2 lbs per year and in the 2000s, decreased by 1.90 lbs per year. In the 2010s, per capita consumption decreased at an accelerated pace and is falling by an average of 3.7 lbs per year.
“While there are many factors that are contributing to the decline in fluid milk consumption, including shifting household demographics, longer working hours, and consumer trends away from breakfast cereals, the most important factor was the increased competition from other beverages.”
Plant based competition
Tom Barcellos, a 35 year dairy operator in Tulare County, says the industry has been fighting “ the plant-based commentary” for years with limited success. Whatever its made of they sill cll it milk” eh shrugs.. Even with less fluid milk sales, dairymen in California are enjoying “a great mix price “ right now even though all the input costs are up as well. Barecellos ships milk to Land O Lakes inTulare and the coop—“recently sent co-op profits to the producers” and is doing well.
If there is bad news in the milk aisles, the butter and cheese grocery shelves are working overtime. The report says “While fluid milk sales are declining, we forecast consumption of other dairy products in California will continue to trend upward with total consumption of cheese increasing by 29% between 2020 and 2030, butter by 15%, and yogurt by 5%.
Dairy operators are getting more money per lb this year in all categories of milk products including fluid milk called Class 1 fetching nearly $22 per hundredweight compared to an average of $17.24 in 2021.Much more milk is shipped as powder mostly for exports also enjoying a near record high price.In 2020 nonfat dry milk was going for $1 and today is $1.85.
If the demand for a glass of milk is declining, local cheese companies – one French-owned and the other Canadian, are investing in major expansion of their production plants in Tulare..Meanwhile there are only small boutique fluid milk processors using local fluid milk.