Farm advisor Bob Beede
USDA says the California walnut crop this fall is likely to be down 19% from last year as lower acreage, lack of chill hours and other weather events reduce the size of the nut crop.The September Objective Measurement survey indicate nut quality will be decreased from last year.Survey data indicated an average nut set per tree of 761, down 24% from 2023’s average of 1,004.
Walnut growers have faced low prices and increased costs along with this summer’s record high temperatures as growers were forced to increase irrigation, says USDA.
Faced with red ink growers have pulled about 30,000 acres of trees in the state in the past two years.
Of all the challenges facing California walnut growers, market uncertainty may be the toughest to overcome, observes California Farm Bureau. A record-size 2023 crop, below break-even prices for growers and higher input costs are placing many walnut growers in precarious financial positions. Pricing is forecast to be under pressure until tonnage approaches an estimated 625,000 tons.
The latest USDA report expects tonnage this year to be 670,000 tons.
At the 52nd annual Tri-County Walnut Day in Tulare this spring, it was noted “some growers are out of business, but they just don’t know it yet.”
Low returns for walnuts in recent years has sparked record numbers of orchard removals.
“Walnut farmers are getting their a– kicked” as small farmers in both Kings and Tulare County “are rapidly losing their livelihoods.” -Farm advisor Bob Beede
Retired farm advisor Bob Beede says “Walnut farmers are getting their a– kicked” as small farmers in both Kings and Tulare County “are rapidly losing their livelihoods.”
It’s a tragedy” for them and the local economy. Before retiring, Beede says he spent 35 years helping local growers on 40 to 80 acre plots build their businesses but now they are just “going broke.” Beede still advocates for these farmers, his friends, who are sometimes forced to let their orchards go unwatered and “turn to firewood or maybe mulch”. To clear the land for another crop requires $2500 an acre to remove but Central Valley farmers have few choices to replace this once staple nut crop.
The problem is price. Walnut growers have seen the average price for their nut fall from $1.80 a pound 10 years ago to just $0.30 a pound last year and now around $0.35 – well below break even.
“These guys need a dollar a pound to stay in business “argues Beede”. Rising costs are happening along with the lowest pricing in decades.
Beede maintains that the farmer who is producing the walnut may be getting as little as $.40 a pound while the end product, after going through middlemen, is sold for eight dollars a pound.
“Hope springs eternal” adds Beede sarcastically, as processors promise growers $0.70 a pound but the price remains at $0.35. “The long downturn in price is unprecedented.”
Sentiment is gloomy as can be seen in a quip making the rounds recently at the 52nd annual Tri-County Walnut Day in Tulare, held this February. It was noted “some growers are out of business, but they just don’t know it yet.”
Never had to borrow
Hanford area farmer Mike Miya says there are lots of guys that are just letting their walnut orchards die. “Our farm has been around since the 1920s and we’ve never had to borrow money to pay operational costs – until now” says Mike.
Beede predicts walnut plantings in King County in the recent past at 16,000 acres, will likely fall to just 5000 acres by next year.
An April 2024 USDA survey found that farmers in Kings County removed 1380 acres with 13,600 acres left standing while in Tulare County, farmers removed 2500 acres with 30,500 acres left.
Beede says part of the problem was that since 2020 the walnut industry, doubled the acreage.Then the Covid epidemic hit followed by a port strike that hurt shipments, even as stiff competition from foreign countries reduced US exports.”Last holiday season Chile took over the Christmas market” – the busy walnut sales period popular for baking.
The long-term trend is clear, as California walnuts’ share of the world market dropped from 68% in 2016-17 to 44% in 2021-22 .
Meanwhile, as the sales price stayed low for a number of years, farmers input costs have risen and the strong dollar has made our exports more expensive overseas. Add in the drought and now SGMA and the obstacles to profitability mount.
Without a price increase this industry is doomed, say advocates.
Chill hours
Farmer Miya says heat has been a growing issue in the past year, not just with this summer’s record temps but this past winter’s lack of chill hours hurting as well.
The winter 2023-24 is going down in history as the hottest on record for the contiguous U.S. in 130 years of record keeping, according to NOAA.Excessive levels of solar radiation can deform nuts during critical development stage.
One study says the winter of 2024 was much milder, and the number of chill hours recorded from November 1 through February 29 were almost 50 percent lower in some parts of the state.
Cold winters are important for good nut production and they also reduce pest populations that will attack trees.. Populations of three major insect pests – codling moth, peach twig borer and oriental fruit moth — are projected to increase mainly due to rising temperatures, according to a study recently published in the journal “Science of the Total Environment” by a team of researchers at University of California.
Of course the NWS Hanford just announced that this summer’s high temps set a record as hottest ever.