December 19,2014
From Northwest Fish Letter
An article in the latest issue of the peer-reviewed journal, Progress in Oceanography, suggests that the range of many West Coast fish species may move further north by 2050, as the Pacific Ocean warms in coming decades.
Authors William W.L. Cheung, of the University of British Columbia, Richard D. Brodeur of NOAA Fisheries, Thomas A. Okey, of the University of Victoria, and Daniel Pauly of the University of British Columbia, say they combined published data, expert knowledge, and pelagic fish survey data to predict the current range of 28 species in the NE Pacific and projected changes in ocean conditions from three models to simulate changes in their spatial distribution.
Their results show that the range of these fish species is expected to shift northward at about 30 km per decade “The projected species range shifts result in a high rate of range expansion of this group of species into the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea. Rate of range contraction of these species is highest at the Aleutian Islands, and in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. We also predict increasing dominance of warmer water species in all regions,” said their abstract, with large ecological implications to follow, “through mismatches of co-evolved species, unexpected trophic effects, and shifts of fishing grounds.”
The study says species from warmer waters like thresher sharks and chub mackerel are likely to become more prominent in the Gulf of Alaska and off B.C., while sea lions and seabirds may find their natural prey moving out of their current foraging range.