Extreme heat in March and April has stressed a variety of crop yields in the Central Valley continuing this summer and now the fall pistachio crop looks to be impacted big time as well. Estimates are that the important nut crop could be down by more than half as the bloom was off, suffering pollination failure in parts of the Central Valley.
First crop out of the chute were cherries. The California Cherry Board estimated production to total fewer than 5 million boxes this season, compared to an average of about 8 million boxes annually over the past five years. Industry officials said an unusually warm March accelerated crop development before April and May storms caused widespread fruit cracking and quality issues near harvest according to press reports.Multiple counties have requested disaster designations.
This summer’s early grape crop was hurt by very hot temps over multiple days as well.
But the big news this month is the pistachio crop that already varies by year – being alternate bearing- has been hit by the heat as well. After producing more than 1.6 billion pounds last season- the highest number ever- industry estimates for this fall have dropped to 600 million to 900 million pounds, with one forecast around 650 million pounds statewide. That would be down by almost one billion pounds from last year.
Growers say high temps above 85 degrees during the spring bloom affected some orchards more than others. There are reports of 90% blank nuts as growers monitor their trees.
The Packer publication reports weather is the big issue this year with crop analyst Matt Wolf quoted saying “We knew it was going to be an off year, but we didn’t know that the heat in March was going to disrupt bloom like we’ve seen,” Woolf says. “Nut clusters are a lot smaller than what they typically are.”
In Kings County pistachios are the number-two crop behind only milk – with a $300 million valuation in 2025 covering about 60,000 acres.
Last year, the Valley saw about 25,000 new bearing acres to harvest. The predictions were for the pistachio crop in California to grow in most years, having reached the 1 billion pound mark in 2020 and perhaps a doubling by 2030.
In 2023, American Pistachio Growers (APG) retained The Tootelian Company to project annual pistachio production in California through 2031. They estimated that with regard to annual new plantings, the total number of acres of pistachios is expected to grow from nearly 583,400 acres in 2023 to nearly 811,300 acres in 2031. This represents a 4.3% increase per year.
Farmers have planted at a rapid pace across the Central Valley starting with just 1,700 acres in 1977, growing to 74,000 acres in 2000, to 178,000 in 2012,488,00 in 2024 and 520,00 in 2025.
Now with SGMA and since 2022, some lower prices, the bulls might need to curb their enthusiasm. Business Insider reports “Pistachio trees thrive in hot, arid climates, but a mature orchard typically needs over a million gallons of water per acre each year in order to produce any nuts for profit, making them vulnerable in times of drought.
Moreover, pistachios are among the most expensive nuts to grow and can cost about $20,000 per acre before a single nut is produced, and trees can take six years to yield a harvest — twice as long as almond trees.”
High Hopes
Pistachio acreage has increased nearly five times in the last two decades and bearing acreage is now more than a half million acres.Headlines in 2025 boasted of record highs and another “massive crop” boding well as demand worldwide was sky high.
We reported that looking to boost their production, at least three pistachio growers and processors in Kings County were indicating expansion plans looking to take advantage of their expectation of more and more nuts. Now it looks like Mother Nature or climate change, if you please, will have a say about that.
Heat is on
The Fresno Bee reported last week that “A dangerous heat wave backed by the largest heat dome on Earth is set to bake Fresno and the San Joaquin Valley this weekend, with temperatures approaching 108 degrees in some areas. The National Weather Service has issued heat advisories through Monday evening, and forecasters warn the triple-digit temperatures will linger into next week.” With the Pacific Northwest literally on fire this week as this heat, drought & fire pattern is sobering.Growers are wondering what a Super El Nino will mean in coming months.