One Ag report notes that farmers “are growing more skeptical of the Trump administration’s promises that China will buy U.S. soybeans. Indeed, administration officials now suggest that China will buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans – about half of their typical annual total – by the end of the 2025-26 crop year next August rather than by January” as he had promised.
CNBC reports that a fact sheet issued by the White House says the deadline for the purchases, pursuant to China’s recent trade agreement with President Trump, is the end of December.Now it’s August.
Soybeans are the largest agricultural export in the U.S. The legume covers more than 81 million acres — or 10% — of all U.S. farmland, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported in September, and more than 40% of the nation’s soybeans are exported to other countries.
Now a Bloomberg news report says Brazil’s record soy harvest could flood global markets and crush prices. Brazilian growers brace for potential oversupply as 2026 harvest projections hit record highs, threatening to destabilize international commodity markets, it states. Brazil is now China’s biggest soy supplier.
The bad news for soy farmers may have political impact in coming elections as 12 of the 14 states where soybean farms dominate the ag landscape have favored Mr Trump and are solid Red states.
American Soybean Farmers have posted this notice on their website this month.
Rising input costs for farmers has been an issue the Trump administration has made a policy priority as it advances through its first year – and with good reason. Soybean producers are staring down the barrel of a third year of negative market returns.
Soybean growers find themselves in a precarious position as the 2025 harvest season wraps up. When harvest began in September 2025, November futures prices were between 25% – 30% lower than at the same point in 2022. The lower revenue levels limit the amount of liquid assets farmers have available to pay off 2025 expenses this fall.
It’s not just the revenue side of the income statement where soybean farmers are being squeezed. Farmers are facing elevated prices for land, machinery, seeds, pesticides and fertilizers. According to USDA, farm production expenses are expected to reach $467.4 billion for 2025 – a $12 billion increase over 2024.
According to annual soybean cost of production reports published by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), land (28%), machinery and repairs (28%), seeds (12%), pesticides (7%), and fertilizers (7%) are the most critical inputs for soybean production and account for 83% of a soybean operation’s annual expenses per planted acre.