-April 8,2023-
Tulare County Association of Governments (TCAG) collects sales tax based on Measure R funding voted in by the county’s voters.
The latest snapshot appears to reflect a local economy that continues to generate more revenue year after year at least to date. Despite that, year after year TCAG’s budget forecasts reflect a flat expected income stream as the planners are conservative in their estimates.In 2018/19 TCAG estimated March revenue of $1.8 million and only edging up slightly each March over the next four years (see chart).
As you can see from this chart the income stream this year in March from Measure R is $3.7 million – double the 2018/19 budget forecast and wildly more than forecast for March 2023 ($2 million) indicated in red on the chart.
The latest audited report says fiscal year 2022/2023 Measure R allocations have been received, payment requested, and distribution made through March 2023. The allocation for the month of March is $3,717,564. The 22/23 fiscal year to date amount is $38,878,471 compared to $36,787,676 for this same period last year which represents a 5.7 % increase.
Governments are always trying to estimate income for their jurisdiction knowing that sales tax is their most important factor. The big worry – don’t overestimate your income.Here, the opposite appears to be true.The good news -so far – so good – locally.
Visalia will update estimates
After implementation of a new tax rule on sales from e commerce facilities and the COVID pandemic, sales tax annual growth for last fiscal year increased to 12% and is projected to be the same this fiscal year. These numbers are inflated due to the Stay- Home-Order and the Federal Government stimulus money. It is widely acknowledged that during the Stay-Home-Order, Visalians used vacation, entertainment, and stimulus money for home improvements and taxable purchases.
City staff last year projected the sales tax growth to continue over the next two years but at a much smaller pace. This growth will build upon the increased base line inflated from the higher growth experienced in this fiscal year and the last. Staff is projecting salestax to grow at a rate of 2% annually, which is $43.6 million in FY 2022/23 and $44.4 million.in 23/24.
Now later this month, Visalia staff will revisit those estimates.
Tulare offers sales tax report
In February Tulare City Council received a presentation showing these two charts.
The first chart show the city’s sales tax has increased from over $10 million to $14.8 million but seems to be slowing now.
The second chart shows comparison numbers . The chart shows Visialia with high numbers in the twenties -now down to around a 4.5% increase during the last quarter of 2022-still a high number from a high base .
