-August 4,2022-
Strong dollar hurts exports
California’s share of the nation’s merchandise export trade slipped to its lowest level in decades in June (the latest numbers), according to a Beacon Economics’ analysis of U.S. trade statistics released this morning by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The state’s share of total U.S. exports was 8.8%, down from 10.2% one year earlier and down from 10.1% in pre-pandemic June 2019.
Heightened rates of Inflation in the United States and abroad continue to complicate efforts to gauge the true value of exports from the nation as well as from California. Today’s report from the Census provides state-of-origin export statistics that are not adjusted for price changes. However, U.S. export prices this June were up 18.2% percent from one year earlier, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“The gap between nominal and real export values is the widest we’ve seen in nearly two decades,” said Jock O’Connell, Beacon Economics’ International Trade Advisor. The Census Bureau reports that, while U.S. merchandise exports in June were nominally up by 23.6% from one year ago, the year-over-year gain was just 7.5% when adjusted for price changes.
Beacon Economics does not construct a separate export price index for the enormous variety of goods California businesses ship abroad. Still, there is no question that, in real terms, the state’s export trade actually contracted in June.
Nominally, California exported goods valued at $16.218 billion in June, an 8.4% jump over the $14.967 billion recorded in June 2021. Exports of manufactured goods nominally rose by 7.0% to $10.129 billion from $9.463 billion one year earlier.
Logistical snags at the state’s major seaports contributed to the nominal 2.6% fall-off in California’s exports of non-manufactured goods (chiefly agricultural products and raw materials) to $2.070 billion from last June’s $2.126 billion. Re-exports, meanwhile, jumped by 19.0% to $4.019 billion from $3.378 billion. Year-to-date, the state’s exports have totaled $93.637 billion, 8.7% ahead of the $86.152 billion recorded at this time one year earlier.
The real fall-off in exports from a year ago was partially reflected in a 3.3% year-over-year decline in the volume of containerized tonnage that sailed from California’s three major ports in June as well as an 11.9% decrease in export tonnage from Los Angeles International Airport and a 10.0% drop from San Francisco International