-August 25,2021-
20% smaller navel crop predicted
Stronger lemon prices this year
Citrus Mutual is predicting a smaller navel orange crop based on fruit sizing on the trees some 6 weeks before fall picking starts. That should benefit pricing, they say.
“The CCM Marketing Committee recently met and discussed crop size for the 21-22 season. Overall, statewide early projections are twenty percent down from the 20-21 season” says spokesperson Alexis Silveira for Exeter-based California Citrus Mutual.
Central Valley navel orange production often varies by year influenced largely by the success and size of fruit set on the trees. In the past 20 years Central Valley production may range from 67 million cartons up to 92 million. Bearing acres has declined from about 135,000 12 years ago to about 111,000 today.
The 21-22 season, if it follows the estimate, would be at the low end of the 20 year numbers.
Alexis Silveira says “Drought and heat play a role, but the major factors are the cyclical nature of the crop and the long season we had this year.”
Meanwhile prices for the existing lemon crop are staying strong, ahead of the 5-year average and last year’s numbers. Exports continue to suffer port congestion issues.
CALIFORNIA TABLE OLIVE FORECAST FOR 2021
The 2021 California table olive forecast is 55,000 tons, up considerably from last year’s crop of 23,200 tons, according to a survey conducted by the USDA.The crop is alternate bearing indication this is an on year.But the crop size is small for an on year. In 2019 the state produced over 82,000 tons
Bearing acreage this year is estimated at 12,800, which results in a yield of 4.30 tons per acre.
The Manzanillo production forecast is 53,800 tons, Sevillano production forecast is 1,100 tons, and other varieties are expected to total 100 tons.
Manzanillo yields were reported to be higher and more consistent than the Sevillano variety yields. Sizes were reported to be smaller than normal due to high heat and lack of water availability.
Labor costs and marketing remains an issue for California olives growers.