-May 14,2019-
Here is the May 10 USDA forecast for the season for the supply and price of major US field crops with the trade front still largely unknown. All crops listed here are expected to be down in price.
WHEAT: The initial outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and larger stocks. Supplies are increased by 41 million bushels year to year with higher carry-in stocks and larger production.
The projected season-average farm price is $4.70 per bushel, down from last year’s estimated $5.20 on the expectation of greater export competition and lower U.S. corn prices.
CORN: The corn crop is projected at 15.0 billion bushels, up from last year and the second largest on record behind 2016/17 as an increase in area more than offsets a reduction in yield. The yield projection of 176.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2018 time period. With beginning stocks down from a year ago, total corn supplies are forecast record high at 17.2 billion bushels.
With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2019/20 U.S. ending stocks are up 390 million bushels from last year and if realized would be the highest since 1987/88. Stocks relative to use at 16.9 percent would be the highest since 2005/06. With larger stocks relative to use, the season-average farm price is projected at $3.30 per bushel, down 20 cents from 2018/19 and the lowest since 2006/07.
SOYBEANS:The 2019/20 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and slightly lower ending stocks compared to 2018/19. The soybean crop is projected at 4,150 million bushels, down 394 million from last year’s record crop on lower harvested area and trend yields. With sharply higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 5,165 million bushels, up 3 percent from 2018/19.Despite limited growth in global soybean import demand, U.S. export share is expected to rise to 35 percent from the 2018/19 record low of 32 percent on higher supplies and competitive prices. U.S. ending stocks for 2019/20 are projected at 970 million bushels, down 25 million from the revised 2018/19 forecast. The 2019/20 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.10 per bushel, down 45 cents from the 2018/19 forecast
COTTON: Led by higher production, the U.S. cotton forecasts for 2019/20 includes higher exports and ending stocks. Production is forecast at 22.0 million bales, based on 13.8 million planted acres as indicated in the NASS March Prospective Plantings report. While planted area is expected lower in 2019/20, increased precipitation to date in the Southwest suggests abandonment will fall from 2018/19’s above-average level and harvested area will rise. With harvested area up, production is projected 20 percent higher than in 2018/19. Domestic mill use is projected unchanged at 3.1 million bales, while exports are expected to rise 15 percent to 17.0 million. At 6.4 million bales, 2019/20 ending stocks are projected 1.8 million higher than the year before, equivalent to 32 percent of use. This would be the highest U.S. stocks-to-use ratio since 2008/09. The marketing year price received by producers is forecast to average 65 cents per pound, 5 cents lower than in 2018/19.