Not quite a Blue Wave but more a Red Wane
December 12,2018-
In 2004 Visalia’s voters numbered 46,500. By 2018 the community had grown and the the total registration in the city climbed to 61,400.
In 2004 there were almost 25,000 Visalia registered voters who called themselves Republicans. In 2018 GOP registration in Visalia was 25,700, not much growth after 15,000 more voters had joined the rolls.
Meanwhile over those 14 years the number of Democrats in the city climbed from 14,300 in 2014 to 17,800. The bigger jump however came in those voters who claim ‘no party preference’ at all.
In 2004 some 5,900 Visalians listed no party on their registration. By 2018 that number climbed to 14,600, reflecting a trend statewide.
Tulare County numbers
Amplify those numbers when you look at Tulare County registration history.
In October 2018 Tulare County sported 169,380 reregistered voters with 52,600 Democrats,66,371 Republicans and 42,000 no party.
By contrast in 2014, the last off-year election, there were 137,000 registered voters – 43,000 Democrats, 63,000 Republicans and 24,500 no party.
So in the past 4 years in the county the GOP has gained about 3000 voters, Demos have gained almost 10,000 while ‘no party ‘affiliation has gained some 17,500.
So there has indeed been what you could call a mild ‘blue wave’ in party registration in the county but more significantly – a red wane – fewer members of the GOP on a percentage basis.
In 2014 some 46% of Tulare County voters were Republican. By 2018 the percentage has dropped to 39%. By contrast Demo affiliation has declined from 31.4% in 2014 to 31.1% of the electorate this year, a comparatively modest decline.
Independents gain
No party affiliation is now about 42,000, or nearly 25% of the 170,000 voters in the county. Today the non-GOP percentage of voters here is 56%. The upshot is non-GOP candidates in Tulare County have a better chance, a chance they that have not had since the 1960s. In 1960 the county was 61% Democrat.
The change in registration preference may have had an impact in the race for 22nd congressional district. In 2014 GOP veteran Devin Nunes won by 67% to 32%.The guy has been in there since 2002. This November Nunes squeaked by Fresno Democrat and first time candidate Andrew Janz by 52% to 47.3%.
In late October Nunes was clearly optimistic about GOP prospects overall tweeting”Looks like Republicans have a chance to win house back!” It did not turn out that way.In California Democrats won six of the seven Republican-held house seats they had targeted in the state.
In the 21st Congressional District GOP favorite David Valadao, who had little trouble winning in the four-county district every two years since 2012, lost this time to Democrat TJ Cox this November. In 2012 for example, Valadao beat out Woodlake native Amanda Renteria in Tulare County by 1720 to 980. This year it was about tied with Valadao 1976 to 1771 votes for Cox in Tulare County. In Fresno County the vote was 1914 for Cox compared to 2048 for Valadao.
In Kings County, the Hanford dairyman Valadao crushed his opponent 18,750 to 11,566, 61% of the vote. But in 72% Hispanic Kern County – Cox cleaned house receiving about 24,000 votes to Valadao’s 15,000 votes. Cox is an engineer and small businessman who founded the Central Valley Fund that helps low income communities.
The upshot was that the Democrat Cox got beat in 3 of 4 counties but won overall with a huge plurality in Kern County( 61%) and winning the district by some 800 votes, 50.4% of the vote.
A similar trend was seen in a local state Senate race with Tulare and Kings counties voting in favor of Republican Andy Vidak while Fresno and Kern counties gave upstart Democrat Mellisa Hurtado, a Sanger council member, a vote of over 60%. Hurtado beat Vidak with 52% of the vote districtwide.
The same pattern is seen in the 32nd Assembly race won by a Democrat, Rudy Salas. This was a district won by Clinton in 2016 by 56%.
For all these south Valley races,Kern County appears to be the new power base.
Voter turnout factor
Voter turnout for a midterm election was high this time, better than usual.Kern County’s turnout was 54,8 percent,Tulare 59 percent; Kings 58 percent with Fresno’s at 56 percent.
Analysts suggest Mr Trump was on the ballot. Statewide, the turnout was 64.5 percent compared to the last off-year election at 42%.In the Valley 2014 turnout was under 30%, just 24% in Tulare County.