June 14,2018-
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released a “consensus estimate” this week predicting that the chance of an El Nino weather pattern in the Northern hemisphere is 65% as this coming winter. We are currently in a neutral state between a La Nina and El Nino phase. The forecast says equatorial sea water temps are increasing.
The forecasts are supported by the ongoing build-up of heat within the tropical Pacific Ocean. “In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19.”
The probability has been increasing since the first of 2018 as can be seen in this graph.
An El Nino pattern makes it likely much of California gets above average precipitation.