Many California farmers support former President Trump in the November election, frustrated over water politics. But Trump’s most publicized policies could hurt farm production and trade, say some. Western Growers have recently suggested a new trade war with China could hinder California agriculture.
Then there is Trump’s vow to deport undocumented people.Some 50% to 75% of California’s farmworkers are undocumented.Even with this workforce – farmers complain about a labor shortage. Yet Trump has said he wants to deport 11 to 15 million people from the U.S.
The Pew Research Center estimates that 1.85 million immigrants in California were undocumented in 2021, down from 2.80 million in 2007. The share of immigrants who are undocumented declined from 28% in 2007 to 18% in 2021.
How would he do this? Trump says he would deploy the National Guard who can be activated on orders of a governor.This week he promised to to use the 18th-Century “Alien Enemies Act” for mass deportations.
Does he really mean it or is it just overblown rhetoric?
We asked two Central Valley farm leaders about these issues.
Nisei Farmers League president Manuel Cunha says he is no fan of Biden’s border policy but favors a path to legalization for farm workers already here who have lived here for decades.”They have paid taxes including contributing into Social Security” notes Cunha. Kicking these workers out of the country is” not fair” to either the employers or the workers, he maintains.
“Mass deportation is not the answer” even though that’s what Trump’s campaign signs say.
Dairyman Tom Barcellos does not expect Trump to target the working people who are undocumented but rather “unproductive” people like gang members.
Both local leaders suggest they hope Trump, if elected, would surround himself with advisors that would reflect the wishes of the farm industry who needs a stable workforce.
A California Farm Bureau statement offers a plan.” America’s farmers and ranchers are in desperate need of a legal, reliable workforce. President Trump has called for merit-based immigration reform, and that is exactly what this bill does.This bill creates a stringent employment-based program for our current agricultural workforce, requiring significant past and future work commitments, to ensure the stability of American agriculture.”
CFB supports a bipartisan compromise that creates a visa program for the entry of a foreign legal workforce to work in agriculture, and that allows those currently experienced yet unauthorized agricultural workers who pay a fine and pass a background check to continue working in agriculture.
Employers say they need workers not just in agriculture but in the meat industry and in health care among others.
Will higher tariffs hurt?
Farmers have seen this movie before. Before the trade war California’s share of the tree nut market in China had been growing rapidly. But almost all California products exported to China— one of the world’s largest importers of agricultural products—lost significant market share due to the Trump inspired trade war and resulting retaliatory tariffs. The U.S. market share for almonds, pistachios and walnuts fell from 94% to just 53%.This is according to a 2020 UC study.
Recent tariff increases put in place by the Biden administration on electric vehicles, solar cells, semiconductors and aluminum and steel products from China could have a devastating impact on exports of farm products, according to a 2024 study highlighted by the industry group Western Growers.
Economists from UC Davis and North Dakota State University evaluated the potential implications of the U.S. revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status, which currently allows China to trade with the United States at most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff rates. They found that if China retaliated against a change in China’s PNTR status, it could lead to a 9.5% increase in China’s agricultural import tariffs, resulting in potential new trade losses to California agriculture of around $1 billion annually.
“The impact on import tariffs for non-agricultural sectors would be even larger, with the average import tariff going up from 3.9% to 32.5%,” Colin A. Carter, a study co-author and a distinguished professor in UC Davis’ Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, said in the release.
For all California agricultural exports, they estimated an average decline in export value between 28.4% and 34.8% when comparing a scenario where China’s PNTR status is revoked to one where it is not. Some crops that rely heavily on China for exports, such as tree nuts, would be more severely impacted by these effects, particularly considering that some of them are still subjected to residual tariffs from the 2018-19 trade war. Besides milk, tree nuts are the Central Valley’s most important crops.
it is not just California crops that may suffer higher tarrifs.
A new trade war with China could result in deep cuts to U.S. corn and soybean exports, according to a study commissioned by trade groups representing the two commodities.
Asked about tariffs Manuel Cunha says Trump should not target neighboring countries like Mexico and Canada” who have done nothing to us.”
Trump has vowed to put a tariff on cars and parts made in Mexico.US consumers would have to pay the extra cost.Mr Trump has insisted Mexico will pay the tariff.
Taking a different approach, Tom Barcellos notes that Trump imposed tariffs before and it helped “bring companies back to the US to make their products.”
“It brings back a balance” he suggests.
A common theme in discussing Trump’s rhetoric is that his future actions might be more moderate than his latest bluff. Supporters often roll their eyes over some Trump statements with one local hoping that” they put some duct tape over his mouth for the next several weeks. Maybe then, we will win.”