Population Surprise
-August 7,2023-
New population projections from the state Department of Finance (DOF) are shocking leaders with estimates that the state and formerly fast-growing counties in the Central Valley will each experience very slow to no-growth or even shrink over the next 40 years.
California now stands about 39 million residents and by 2060 – a July 2023 DOF projection says we will be right there – around 39 million residents.
Who will be the biggest loser? Los Angeles is expected to lose 1.3 million residents, falling from 10 million people today to 8.3 million by 2060. The good news? Maybe LA’s clogged freeways and housing shortage will ease. Maybe the Southland won’t suck up so much imported water?
Surprisingly, the trend is similar in Central Valley counties like Tulare and Kings.
Baby Bust
A key component – births statewide and locally continue to fall while deaths go up due to an aging population. Regards births, a sea-change has happened as far fewer young mothers are giving birth. Statewide there were 70,000 births in 1990 to mothers who were 16 to 19. By 2022 there were just 8000 in this category. Also there were 160,000 births to mothers 20 -24 in 1990. In 2022 the number fell to 58,00 and is expected to drop further to 38,000 by 2040.
Statewide we currently see about 408,000 births annually but that is expected to decline to 341,000 by 2059 – over 20% lower. Families are choosing to have fewer kids.
In Tulare County there were 7248 births in 1990 – increasing to 8151 in 2010 but falling to 6819 in 2022 and expected to fall further to 5908 in 2040. The lower numbers are impacting local hospitals like Kaweah Delta seeing fewer patients in their maternity wards. Indeed, total admissions at the area’s largest medical center for all reasons are down.
Annual births in Kings County are trending lower as well. There was a high in 2008 of about 2800 to its 2100 births in 2022.
A few years ago California lost population for the first time in state history.The decline is a product of more people moving to other states and the pandemic’s effect on births, deaths, and immigration says the Public Policy Institute of California.
“Although birth rates have been falling for years, they reached new lows in 2021. Birth rates are not just falling in California: since 2007, the fertility rate across the country has fallen from 2.1 to 1.6. But the California rate fell faster, from 2.2 to about 1.5, and spanned race and ethnicity. Notably, Latina women had the largest decline in California and now also have birth rates below replacement. And teen birth rates are the lowest on record.”
Kings numbers
Kings County is expected to continue its very slow to flat line growth, says the DOF report. Today the population is about 151,00 and should climb to 157,000 by 2030, 161,000 by 2040, fall to 160,000 by 2050 and down to 159,000 ten years later in 2060.The ratio of Hispanics to Whites should be about the same as today – 88,000 Hispanics by 2060 and 46,000 Whites.
Growth estimates keep falling
In Tulare County, the DOF has continually lowered expected growth estimates in the past decade as can be seen in this chart. The chart, put together by Tulare County Association of Governments (TCAG) a few years ago shows the trend by the state agency to lower periodic projections down -now even lower projecting minus growth in the latest July 2023 numbers (not shown).
The popular wisdom is that Tulare County is growing fast with an influx of industry and retail in recent years. But the state report predicts our 475,000 population today will actually shrink to 446,000 in 2060!
That is quite a contrast with news that four Tulare County cities were among the fastest growing in the state in 2022.
Visalia ranked 25th in the state for population increases adding 965 residents in the last year. A 2013 DOF projection estimated that Tulare County would reach 837,000 residents by 2060 reflecting the trends that were seen 20 years ago. Then in 2021 they suggested the county would grow to only 592,000 by that date. In July of this year the number was down to 446,000.
That is got to be sobering to the Visalia business community and home builders who are busy planning new developments in town including the annexation of land into the city for thousands of new homes. Even if Visalia was one of the fastest growing cities in the state – growth was under 1% compared to 3 to 6% increase seen in years before.It is a wake up call for city and school planners as well.
It is not just births that are down. In-migration has reversed. In 2019 Tulare County saw 573 persons migrate toTulare County. In 2004 migration was a plus 4437.
Likewise in Kings County where a half a dozen new annexations are underway around Hanford and Lemoore that will result in enough land for another thousand homes.
So is everybody heading to the Coast? Nope. San Luis Obispo at 279,00 today will also shrink in 40 years to 265,000 says DOF.Many residents there who favor slow growth in any case- might get their wish.
What about Cal-Exit?
One factor in population stories that has gotten plenty of press is the news that more people are leaving California due to high cost of living – so called Cal-Exit.
The latest DOF projection shows that indeed – in 2020 there was a net minus migration out of state of over 350 thousand people in part due to the pandemic. That statewide number fell to 318 thousand exiting in 2021 and down to 140,000 last year and expected to be 96k in 2023. DOF says by 2027, net-migration should be to the positive again averaging 50,000 to 60,000 annually.
Still, as we have seen the California Department of Finance keeps changing their mind and suggests wildly different outcomes.
Baby pic courtesy Public Policy Institute
chart: TCAG