-March 11,2021-
California tree nut farmers harvested record crops in 2020. That includes three billion pounds of almonds, an upward revised billion pounds of pistachios- the first time it has reached this level, and 780,000 pounds of walnuts. But as farmers have planted more acreage, prices have dropped.
Almonds this winter are selling for $1.50 lb compared to $4 and 3 dollars a pound in recent years. The crop climbed 20% to a record last year. Walnuts are selling for 75cents compared to $2.50 a pound in 2017.
Pistachio prices are also down but not so dramatically – but may drop to about $2.30 to $2.40 a pound this season from $2.60 in 2019, according to David Magana, senior horticultural analyst for Rabobank. The China trade war continues to hurt exports.
But farmers are planting more trees.Now we have a new estimate of just how many.
Thanks to an aerial survey ordered by the Administrative Committee for Pistachios last summer, Director Bob Klein says they have been underestimating the new plantings by 10% to 15%. Accurate estimates of the number of trees in the ground are critical in trying to figure out the size of future crops with this alternate-bearing nut.
“Now we think all acreage could reach 500,000 acres by the end of 2021″ says Klein.That is up by around 30,000 to 50,000 acres from before the survey.
Pistachio orchards can produce 3600 lbs per acre. With an extra 50,000 acres – crop size estimates could leap 180 million pounds.
Look at the non-bearing acreage estimates after the aerial survey -doubling from 2015 to 2016 to 157k acres,151k in 2018,129k in 2019 and 114k in 2020.
With growth like this, the yearly crop will continue to cycle up and down but climb to 1.5 billion pounds in 10 years or less” expects Klein.
If this is a warning to growers that a large supply could mean lower prices ahead – it also be an opportunity for processors, notes Klein.
“We have the same number of processors we had when I came to work here in 1999 when the statewide pistachio crop was 250 million pounds.”
Several new plants are in the works around the Valley. With more nuts to sell – marketing efforts must redouble. Better get crackin’.