Get out the galoshes or perhaps the ‘goul-oshes’.
A wave of storms from both north and south will plow into the entire state of California starting around October 25 and lasting thru Halloween into early November according to the latest NOAA weather projections.
GFS maps October 29,30 and November 3- one,two ,three punch
The waves includes a tropical atmospheric river pattern with a bulls-eye on southern and Central California October 29 seen in this top of page GFS model map.
Following shortly (next 2 maps) are more storms that get tangled up with their southern cousin and spiral across the state.
Atmospheric River weather patterns are credited with making a dent in our persistent years of drought because they bring in large but narrowed ribbons of water in short period.
On average, about 30-50% of annual precipitation in the west coast states occurs in just a few AR events, thus contributing to water supply says NOAA. A well-known example of a type of strong AR that can hit the U.S. west coast is the “Pineapple Express,” due to their apparent ability to bring moisture from the tropics near Hawaii to the U.S. west coast.
Fed by the remnants of Super Typhoon Songda over the West Pacific the Pacific Northwest got hammered mid-month and as much as 18 inches of rain poured down on extreme northern California October16/17. The AR reached down to the Santa Cruz mountains that saw 11.45 inches of rain.
Meanwhile most of Central and Southern California received well under an inch. Kings County in the rain shadow of the Coast mountains, got a few sprinkles.
This series looks widespread and wild.
Already this new water year is looking promising with Northern California at 345% of average as of Oct 17 and the San Joaquin index at 278%.
While the drought is not over reservoir storage looks good for this time of year for a change.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s Central Valley Project began water year 2017 on Oct. 1 with 4.9 million acre-feet of water in its six key reservoirs. The amount is 2 million acre-feet more than was in storage at the beginning of water year 2016, federal officials announced in recent days.
The amount of storage in the key reservoirs – Shasta, Trinity, Folsom, New Melones and Millerton reservoirs and the federal share of the joint federal/state San Luis Reservoir – is 82% of the 15-year average of annual carryover of 6.0 million acre-feet.
“Although overall CVP water supply conditions improved in WY 2016 compared to WY 2015 and WY 2014, we continue to face difficult circumstances as we deal with the ongoing effects of the drought,” said Bureau Mid-Pacific Regional Director David Murillo. “We got through WY 2016 by working closely with our water users and their willingness to work together to develop creative solutions to a multitude of challenges. We hope that water supply conditions improve as we move into WY 2017 but know we could be facing a sixth consecutive year of drought. Regardless of conditions, we will continue to collaborate with our water users, stakeholders and agency partners to best manage our critical water resources.”
Below- October 29 map shows two storms heading into the state