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July 9 El Niño Advisory: 90% Chance El Niño This Winter

July 9,2015-Screen Shot 2015-07-09 at 7.43.36 AM

Latest forecast from the US Climate Prediction Center released today ups the chances for an EL Nino event this winter and says it is likely the event will be a strong one. That would increase chances for above-normal precipitation for California.

During June, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies exceeded +1.0°C across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean . The largest SST anomaly increases occurred in the Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 regions, while the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 indices remained more constant through the month. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies weakened due to the eastward shift of an upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which reduced above-average temperatures at depth in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific . In many respects, the atmospheric anomalies remained firmly coupled to the oceanic warming. Significant westerly winds were apparent in the western equatorial Pacific and anomalous upper-level easterly winds continued. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, which are consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia

Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with many multi-model averages predicting a strong event at its peak strength (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5°C or greater; Fig. 6). At this time, the forecaster consensus is in favor of a significant El Niño in excess of +1.5°C in the Niño-3.4 region. Overall, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

The 90% prediction is up from 85 percent last month and 50 percent from four months ago

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday July 16th).   El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins .

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