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2015 CALIFORNIA ALMOND FORECAST DOWN AS SET IS POOR

Screen Shot 2015-07-03 at 6.35.44 AMCalifornia’s 2015 almond production is forecast at 1.80 billion meat
pounds, down 3 percent from May’s subjective forecast and down 4
percent from last year’s crop. The forecast is based on 890 thousand
bearing acres. Production for the Nonpareil variety is forecast at 670
million meat pounds, down 6 percent from last year’s deliveries. The
Nonpareil variety represents 37 percent of California’s total almond
production.
The California almond bloom began in early February. The bloom was
one of the earliest almond blooms in memory. In general, the bloom
was fast and compact with Monterey and Fritz blooming earlier than
Nonpareils. In several instances, the lower two-thirds of trees
blossomed two weeks ahead of the top possibly indicating insufficient
chilling hours. Nonpareil set appears to be below previous year’s. High
temperatures in late June have raised the already high grower concerns
regarding water stress. Some growers have observed reduced
production from their wells as water levels have declined. In areas
where ground water is the primary source of water, some salt damage,
wilting of trees, and defoliation has been seen. With the heat, almond
hull split was moving fast. Harvest preparations were underway with ant
baits being applied to orchards. Harvest is expected to begin ten days
to two weeks ahead of normal.
The average nut set per tree is 5,874, down 12 percent from 2014. The
Nonpareil average nut set is 5,239, down 14 percent from last year. The
average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.43 grams, down 1
percent from the 2014 average weight of 1.45. The Nonpareil average
kernel weight was 1.61, up slightly from last year. A total of 98.8 percent
of all nuts sized were sound.

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