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Watching Wet Pattern Over Next Two Weeks

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Northern California In Line For 8-10 Inches

California got a sprinkle up to and over an inch of water from the storm this week, at least so far, with a promise of more over the next two weeks. Rain on the SJ Valley floor and across the Central Coast was mostly disappointing ( Fresno 0.17 and Los Osos 0.04) but several cold storms over the next few days offer some modest hope particularly for Northern California.
The 8 day forecast in Redding next to the state’s largest reservoir – Shasta, calls for rain over 6 of those days. Storage in Lake Shasta has been climbing this month instead of falling like it did in the 1977 drought (red line see pic). Shasta is at 58% of average for the date.

Here is what the NWS SF says today.
CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE  TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Good News For Skiers

Tahoe Snow Forecaster Bryan Allegretto blogged today the following report.

The ski resorts on the West side of the lake are reporting another 9-15 inches in the past 24 hours, and on the East side 2-7 inches.  That brings storm totals to 13-21 inches on the West side of the lake and 6-11 inches on the East side.  
Scattered snow showers should continue today and tomorrow, especially along the crest.  We should also see some breaks in the clouds with sun over the basin.  The next storm approaches tomorrow night and pushes heavy snow into the area by later Friday night into Saturday.  This storm has more moisture than the last one but snow levels will rise near 7000 ft. Friday into Friday night before coming back below lake level on Saturday.  That makes the lake level forecast tricky, but we could see several inches at lake level.  On the mountains 6-12 inches could fall on the East side of the lake with 12-24 inches possible on the West side.
Snow showers may linger again on Sunday and then another storm moves in Monday into Tuesday.  This will be a cold storm starting as snow down to lake level.  This storm could drop several more inches over the Tahoe Basin with up to a foot along the crest.  We could see a break next Wednesday before another system approaches the West Coast by Thursday.

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Looking at the Future; 8 to 10 Inches

SLO forecaster John Lindsey has some good numbers looking forward.
A 988 millibar Gulf of Alaska storm will move toward Northern
California early Saturday. The associated cold front will
pass over San Luis Obispo County Saturday evening with
increasing southerly winds, clouds and rain. Total rainfall
amounts are expected to range between 0.15 and 0.40 inches
by Saturday night.

Dry weather and mild temperatures return on Sunday, then
a vigorous low pressure system will produce moderate gale
-force to fresh gale-force (32- to 46-mph) southerly winds
and moderate to heavy rain Monday afternoon and night. Rain
showers will continue into Tuesday. Total rainfall amounts
are expected to range between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. Heavy
snow totals are expected in the Sierra on Monday with snow
levels around 3,000 feet.

Another weather system could cross the Central Coast Thursday
into Friday of next week with more rain.

Overall, over the next 10 days areas North of Sonoma County
are expected to receive between 8 to 10 inches of rain.
Further south in San Luis Obispo County, total rainfall
amounts are forecast to range between 0.75 and 2.25 inches. “

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