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June 29.2015

from California Weather Blog

“Looking forward into July: long-range outlooks suggest the potential for a rather active pattern to persist for much of the summer in California and across much of the American Southwest. The CFS currently foresees far above-normal chances of precipitation along the CA coast during July, though it’s important to keep in mind that average precipitation this time of year is near zero, so even a small amount of rainfall would lead to far above-average totals in a relative sense.

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The CFS model is currently suggesting the potential for an usually active warm season pattern during July across California and the rest of the Southwest. (NOAA/CPC)
It’s not clear at the moment whether this unusual warm season precipitation signal is coming from an active monsoonal flow pattern (which we are currently experiencing) or from more tropical sources (in the form of remnant energy/moisture from the eastern Pacific Ocean). Hurricane season in the East Pacific has already gotten off to a record-breaking and hyperactive start–and this high degree of activity is expected to continue for the rest of the summer and fall as ocean surface temperatures remain exceptionally warm. It is worth noting that summer during which strong El Niño conditions are in place tend to feature at least a handful of interesting warm season weather events in California.
Micro El Niño update
A new, powerful westerly wind burst is currently underway in the far western tropical Pacific, and is expected to strengthen/shift eastward in the coming days. (SUNY Albany)
With each passing week, it seems more and more likely that the world will experience a strong El Niño event in 2015. We’re almost there already–observed conditions are right at the official threshold for declaring a “strong event.” All major dynamical models suggest further strengthening, and several of the best models are still suggesting the potential for quite a bit of additional strengthening.

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The latest runs of the CFS are continuing to call for the strongest El Niño event on record by the fall months–and this is starting to look more plausible as we have now mostly emerged from the so-called Spring Predictability Barrier. As of this writing, a new, powerful westerly wind burst was just beginning in the far West Pacific–a very strong sign that a third major Kelvin Wave may be on the way and that this El Niño event will continue to intensify for at least the next 3 months.”

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