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Weak El Nino Forecast Changes Wet Winter Outlook

A September 20 NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast is suggesting a change in the forecast for a wet winter across California in coming months. Even a month ago the CPC was showing prediction maps displaying increased likelihood of rain in the traditional wet months starting in December. Now the agency’s prediction maps maps are calling for simply “equal chances “ for a wet season although the Southwest gets wet and Pacific northwest looks drier than normal.

The forecast change relies on models showing a weakening of the trend  for  warmer than normal temps along the equator.

The Sept 20 CPC discussion says this.”DYNAMICAL FORECASTS, HOWEVER, ARE WEAKER NOW THAN 1 AND ESPECIALLY 2 MONTHS AGO. STATISTICAL MODELS GENERALLY HAVE PREDICTED SMALLER SST ANOMALIES. WHILE IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW LARGE SST ANOMALIES WILL BE OR HOW MUCH THEY WILL ALTER THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION IMPACTING NORTH AMERICA IT NOW SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT A STRONG EL NINO WILL DEVELOP.”

PG&E forecaster John Lindsey has said recently as well that he does not see a wet year for Central California this winter.

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