Visitor Counter

0114187
Visit Today : 40
Visit Yesterday : 91
This Month : 1753
This Year : 10952
Total Visit : 114187
Hits Today : 111
Total Hits : 377501
Who's Online : 2
Your IP Address: 54.82.164.182
Server Time: 17-06-27
plugins by Bali Web Design

Waiting For El Nino To Bring Forth Rain

Records Show September Rain Is Sparse Even in El Nino Years

A strong El Nino weather pattern is heating up the waters off of South America and may very well give the Central Valley a good dose of rain this fall and winter. But don’t look for early drought relief in September if the historical record for El Nino years is any indication.

Big El Nino years include 1968/69, 1982/83 and 1997/98.

Screen Shot 2015-08-31 at 10.39.31 AM

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE MAP

In those years Hanford got no rain in 68/69 but 17 inches for the whole water year. Hanford saw only 0.64 inches in September of 82/83 but got 16.5 inches that water year. It got just 0.06 in September 97/98 but through the winter months received 15.5 inches by June 1998.

Over a 50-year average Hanford gets just 8.5 inches of rain in a  water year July-June.

In the past 50 years, 1968/69 was the biggie in the Central Valley with some monster flood events.In January 1969 Hanford got 6.7 in of rain that month alone.  Both the Valley and entire state got a vigorous soaking that year.

As of now the rain outlook for September 2015 does not look any more promising than on average (Hanford -0.19 in) with a few Alaska storms knocking on the door in extreme northern California and the possibility of a tropical monsoon event spilling over into southern California  and as far north as Hanford around September 14-16 according to weather models.

This would be the rain pattern we would expect in an El Nino year as forecasted by the Climate Prediction Center (see map) as well as that freak July rain that hit the Central Coast and Mid Valley.

The more typical pattern we see is rain pushing in from the Gulf of Alaska into the state serving up a snow maker for the Central Sierra.
That pattern was evident this past weekend when a weak storm drooped half an inch of rain on Shasta Reservoir over this weekend and brought relief to the Pacific Northwest suffering from wildfires.

Screen Shot 2015-08-31 at 1.16.48 PMBut we in the Central Valley may see storms from the south this year.

Here is a map of how different El Nino years have given up rain or not and where. Note the 1968/69 year.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *