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NOAA’s “Unanimous Forecast” Calls For Strong El Nino

13 August 2015-
hot water 2015-08-13 at 8.14.47 AMThe latest forecast form NOAA”s Climate Prediction Center released today calls for a strong El Nino weather pattern this fall through early winter, a bullish forecast for rain for California. NOAA says there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016.
“Strengthening El Nino”
“All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a strong event at its peak in late fall/early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5°C or greater. At this time, the forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Nino 3.4 region potentially near or exceeding +2.0°C. Overall, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 85% chance it will last into early spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
The statement says “During July, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies were near +1.0°C in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, and in excess of +2.0°C across the eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). SST anomalies increased in the Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 regions, while the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 indices decreased slightly during the month (Fig. 2). Positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific during the month (Fig. 3), in association with the eastward movement of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). The atmosphere remained coupled to the oceanic warming, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies continuing from the western to east-central equatorial Pacific, along with anomalous upper-level easterly winds. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño.
The CPC says the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday August 20th.

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