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February News Updates / Forecasts For Weather & Gas Prices

NOAA sees dry weather pattern

Forecasters See Little Relief From Dry Weather Pattern
The dry weather pattern has enveloped California in the New Year appears to be continuing well into mid February. California forecasters say a little rain shower and some little snow should falll this week,Thursday and Friday including over Donner Pass and parts of the San Joaquin Valley.
But Accuweather says” it doesn’t appear that the storminess will last all that long this time around with another zone of high pressure expected to build into the West by next weekend.”
SLO forecaster JohnLindsey agreEs offerinG this scenario to his readers today.
“An area of low pressure will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and  move toward the Central Coast on Thursday night. Rain showers will cross San Luis Obispo County on Friday. The primary uncertainty with the forecast is the amount of moisture associated with the system, which will dictate how much precipitation is produced.
At this time, rainfall amounts will be light with only about a tenth of an inch expected. Snow levels will fall rapidly down to near 2,500 feet as this system moves through. However, only a few inches of snow will fall.”

Dry conditions will return Saturday and will persist through the entire following week as high pressure dominates our weather.

But The NWS Hanford  suggests some uncertainty over the punch of the storm but that rain is likely with very cold temps and thunderstorms that could hit the area Friday.

Abundant rainfall earlier this winter across the state helped drive rain totals through the New Year to well above average( 200% in December) in northern California and the San Joaquin Valley. Today the DWR says the Northern California rain index sits at 128% of average precip with nearly 35 inches in in the bucket.We would be “average” if we got 50 in by the end of this water year. There has been virtually no precipitation in this New Year. This map tells the story of this water year-wet in the north and dry in the middle and south.

click to enlarge

The Climate Prediction Center  that rain likelihood from Feb 11-17 shows well below average chance in North and Central California (see map).

Gas Price Spike Temporary?

Gas prices in California have spiked up 30 cents in the past month.Avenal and Lompoc in the S2S region have some of the state’s lowest priced stations at $3.35. This week the state average gas price is nearing $4. AAA reported that wholesale prices spiked 50 cents last week.

But fear not says Visalia oil company exec Walt Dwelle who sees the price jump as “an aberration. It’s temporary and it won’t be long before they head back down.” Dwelle says refinery issues are to blame for the latest run up but that “demand continues to be soft.”

Several observers including OPIS’s Tom Kloza have predicted gas prices will fall in 2013. “They will wobble higher the first of the year.”  But Kloza says the there will be lots of crude coming to market in 2013.

The average price of a gallon of gasoline in 2013 will fall 5 percent to $3.44, according to the Energy Department.

EIA expects that falling crude prices will help national average regular gasoline retail prices fall from an average $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to annual averages of $3.44 per gallon and $3.34 per gallon in 2013 and 2014, respectively.

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