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El Nino Fading – What Me Worry?

September 10,2014

“I never felt more confident in a prediction of normal to above-normal precipitation this rain season.”  –John Lindsey

At least two California forecasters are not giving up – worrying that a weak El Nino event this fall/winter will mean another drought year for the Golden State. Instead they are counseling patience but suggesting that the rain will fall.

Avocado trees near Morro Bay stumped and painted white due to lack of water

Avocado trees near Morro Bay stumped and painted white due to lack of water

This week the New York Times weighed in with the headline “Hopes for a strong El Nino Fade in Parched California” reciting downgrades in chances for coming months.

In their latest prediction National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), put the odds of an El Niño occurring during the October through January time period at 60 to 65%, which is down slightly from the 65% figure given in early August. (The odds for the November through January period stayed the same.) Previously, the odds of an El Niño had been as high as 80%.
But two meteorologists who watch our area continue to see a good chance for wet weather,not early but once winter sets in.
PG&E forecaster John Lindsey said this past weekend he had been offering talks to local civic groups about the potential for wet weather this winter.

Toward the end of a weather column he pens for the Tribune in SLO Lindsey lets it all hang out.

“I never felt more confident in a prediction of normal to above-normal precipitation this rain season.”
“This leads to the question, when can San Luis Obispo expect its first rain? Overall, rain is most likely around Feb. 15, with precipitation occurring 33 percent of the time. The first rains of the season usually occur in October or November.”

warm waters bring abundant food for Morro Bays birds this past weekend

warm waters bring abundant food for Morro Bay birds this past weekend

He points to warm seawater temps bringing in unexpected sea life to SLO coastal shores recently including ” the greatest occurrence of humpback whales that I have ever seen have been gorging themselves on bait balls composed of anchovies, sardines and smelt.”
Besides El Nino – Lindsey point to a warm PDO pattern as another bullish factor for above normal rainfall.
Besides Mr Lindsey Ag forecaster Alan Fox who advises avocado growers says on his latest blog that El Nino is not going away.

“Seasonal Outlook /El Niño Update – September 21 to December 15… With regard to El Niño induced rainfall in southern California, Fox Weather does not expect above normal rainfall to start until January 2015. The latest results from the Climate Forecast System (CFS2) model currently show about normal rain amounts in California through November.

NOAA/CPC selects above normal rainfall for southern California for September and October.
The latest results from Scripps Institution of Oceanography’s Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) and NOAA/CPC are showing a slow increase in the El Niño pattern in December to near maximum in January and February 2015. Recent statements in the press about El Niño ‘going away’ do not make sense to us, nor are they confirmed by Scripps or NOAA/CPC guidance. Recent daily variations in El Niño have shown a decrease, and El Niño is weaker than earlier in the summer. However, it is the normal seasonal pattern for El Niño to be weakest in July-September and strongest in January and February.”

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