April 16,2015
After a pitiful dry winter in California, a cold wet pattern is likely toward the middle of next week say forecasters. On the Central Coast forecaster John Lindsey expects half to three quarters of an inch starting Thursday.NOAA published this GFS forecast map for next Thursday showing good rain in most parts of the state and up and down the Sierra ( dark green and blue). The snowpack is non existent in some areas like the Kaweah high country – this pic of Mineral King from their webcam this week.
Runoff on the Kaweah is expected to be an all time record low of 13 percent of average compare to 26% last year.
Is it too late for rain? That’s what too many news reports suggest ,too little too late – they like to repeat. But another 5 to 10 inches this water year could make all the difference for some – particularly northern California, if where many of the most important reservoirs are gets a good soak.Those reservoirs supply the population centers and farms to the south.
Despite the nonexistent snowpack statewide, northern California rain totals this year is 75% of average for April 15. A strong storm over several days could bring it closer to average.
A few inches of rain and Shasta Dam’s precipitation total will be more than it has received for each of the past 3 water years. We are an inch away from 50 inches this water season – better than last year when they got only 36”, 49’’ the year before and 26” the year before that. The last big year was 2011 when they got 68 inches.
The reason this is a big deal is that how much water Shasta sees determine whether and how much LA, the Central Coast and Central Valley will receive this summer.
Friant Water District for example is facing another zero water allocation depending on what happens in Shasta reservoir. Besides quantity that decision depends on how cold that water is – used to benefit fish in the Sacramento River. Friant officials say the Bureau of Reclamation is not saying how they will decide this key issue.
El Nino Strengthens
Is is too late for El Nino to heat up? That is what is happening this month ( see chart). Could that help open the storm door this late in the rainy season? An El Nino pattern could help wet southern California and Arizona – both in need of more rain.
We will be rooting for that storm door opening however late it is.Look for unsettled wet weather from April 24 into early May.
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