Flood Event Could Float Kings County Says Lloyd’s Of London
August 13,2015-
A report released this month suggests the state and Central Valley are at risk in a large 100-year flood event. A map shows Kings County as one of the hardest hit in the state with 30% of its land area under water in a one in200 year event.The report is sponsored by Lloyd’s of London,a major insurance firm.
The report come as experts suggests the state could see the type of flood that the state in1862 – flooding Sacramento just as the new governor was being sworn in and forcing him to climb into his second story window to go home afterwards. Such episodic floods are considered likely in 150 year increments.
The report says that” although California is enduring its worst drought for 1,200 years, parts of the state remain highly and increasingly vulnerable to flooding.
Lloyd’s commissioned JBA Consulting to estimate the likelihood and impact of a severe flood in California’s Central Valley, which covers 19 counties, is home to 6.9 million people and contains $1 trillion of insurable assets, mostly agricultural.
Based on current estimates of population and assets, we assess that a 1-in-100-year event could result in $24.1 billion of damage, excluding demand surge or business interruption losses, which would likely be significant.
This estimate is made without considering the mitigating impact of defenses. The Central Valley contains over 20,000km of levees and flood control structures, and around 150 reservoirs on tributaries.
However, we note that the standard of flood protection offered by these defenses is highly variable. Generally, defenses have a standard of protection for less than the 1-in-100-year flood. This level of protection will be eroded if infrastructure is not maintained. Analysis of the available data for some counties suggests that curreny budgets are insufficient to cover present and projected operation and maintenance costs.
We assess that, even if upkeep programs maintain the 1-in-100-year protection, such protection will be gradually eroded by climate change. Climate change is likely to result in adjustments to the flood probabilities assigned to much of the Central Valley, with the 1-in-100 and 1-in-200-year floodplains enlarged.
Climate change will have implications for the US National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which provides subsidies to support take-up of flood insurance. The rising cost of climate change could add further costs.”
Regarding the Central Valley the Tulare Lake Basin 100-year flood event could impact some 28,000 residences and result in some $12.3 billion in damages.
